2019 Oscars nominations - who are the favourites?

Why wake up early Tuesday morning when you can get a good look at the favourites now? WIthout, ahem, touting The Ten Buck Review's 83% accuracy rate too many times, the likely nominees are:

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody  
The Favourite  
Green Book 
If Beale Street Could Talk   
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice    

Spoiler: First Man
Surprise: Eighth Grade

 
Best Director 
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice 

Spoiler: Green Book's Peter Farrelly, a previous front runner who had negative press voting week and a mixed reception to his Golden Globe speech. 
Surprise: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk 

 
Best Actor 
Christian Bale, Vice 
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 
William Dafoe, Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody  
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book   

Spoiler: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman 
Surprise: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed 



Best Actress 
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?


Spoiler: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

 
Best Supporting Actor 
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy  
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born 
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
 
Spoiler: Sam Rockwell, Vice 
Surprise: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther


Best Supporting Actress 
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place 
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk  
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Spoiler: Claire Foy, First Man  
Surprise: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots or Roma




Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman 
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me? 
If Beale Street Could Talk  
A Star Is Born 

Spoiler: Leave No Trace
Surprise: First Man

   
Best Original Screenplay 
Eighth Grade
The Favourite 
Green Book 
Roma
Vice

Spoiler: First Reformed

 
Best Animated Feature 
Incredibles 2 
Isle of Dogs  
Mirai  
Ralph Breaks the Internet 
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spoiler: Early Main
Surprise: Smallfoot


Best Documentary Feature 
Free Solo 
Minding the Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers 
Won't You Be My Neighbor? 

Spoiler: Shirkers

 

Best Cinematography 
Cold War 
The Favourite 
First Man 
Roma 
A Star Is Born

Spoiler: Black Panther
Surprise: Bohemian Rhapsody 


Best Costume Design 
Black Panther
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
The Favourite (Sandy Powell)
Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)
Mary Queen of Scots 

Spoiler: Bohemian Rhapsody
Surprise: Crazy Rich Asians

 
Best Film Editing 
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man 
Roma
A Star Is Born 
Vice

Spoiler:  The Favourite 
Surprise: A Quiet Place

 
Best Makeup and Hairstyling 
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Spoiler:  Stan & Ollie
Spoiler: Black Panther 

 
Best Original Score 
A Quiet Place
BlackKklansman
First Man 
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs 

Spoiler: Black Panther
Surprise: Mary Poppins Returns

 
Best Original Song 
All the Stars, Black Panther, Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA 
Girl in the Movies, Dumplin’, Performed by Dolly Parton 
I'll Fight, RBG, Performed by Jennifer Hudson  
Shallow, A Star Is Born, Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga 
Trip A Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns, Performed by Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda 

Spoiler: The Place Where Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns, Performed by Emily Blunt


Best Production Design 
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 
The Favourite 
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma 

Spoiler: Black Panther
Surprise: Bohemian Rhapsody

 
Best Sound Editing 
A Quiet Place 
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible — Fallout
Roma  

Spoiler: Bohemian Rhapsody
Surprise: Ready Player One



Best Sound Mixing 
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place 
Roma
A Star Is Born
 
Spoiler: Bohemian Rhapsody
Surprise: Mary Poppins Returns 
 

Best Visual Effects 
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One 

Spoiler: Solo: A Star Wars Story
Surprise: Welcome to Marwen

Eighth Grade

Gucci!

Writer-director Bo Burnham's coming-of-age story is the movie dreams are made of. That is, if your dreams often take you back to the the awkward and insecure time spent as a thirteen-year old eighth grader. Yeeks! What's my locker combination?
 
The film opens with the part charming, part annoying Kayla (Elsie Fisher) who has been awarded the dubious honor of "Most Quiet" at the end of middle school, and the audience is invited to follow her as she finds herself, loses herself, finds friends and makes a lot of YouTube videos in between.

I can't say that I ever wanted to return to eighth grade, especially in the honest and realistic way this film does, but it is worth it to see how Kayla deals with what life throws her way, including her relationship with her father. It's one of the most charming films of 2018.
 
In a nutshell: An awkward visit to middle school that earns an A+ for comedy.
 
Award potential: Eighth Grade is an unlikely Best Picture nominee unless the Academy shuns popular favorites such as Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody with some more original and elevated choices such as First Man, Cold War or this. 

Elsie Fischer, who voiced young Agnes in the Despicable Me movies, is a breakout star however it's a top tier year in the Best Actress category with no room for an ingenue.
 
The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

On The Basis Of Sex

A big screen biopic that doesn't do RBG any justice.

On The Basic Of Sex is a biopic based on the life and early legal case of the extraordinary Ruth Bader Ginsburg, directed by Mimi Jones of TV's The Leftovers, Shameless and ER. It's a big story suitable for the big screen, but unfortunately this treatment performs like an old-fashioned TV movie of the week. 

I'm not talking HBO or Netflix either; this film has the depth and grit of a Hallmark or Lifetime movie where backdrops are dreamy and conflicts come together tidily. Every one of Ruth's (Felicity Jones) sweaters is new and perfectly fitted, household items such as a typewriter sparkle without a hint of ink smudge and every tidy room was worth taking in. When the dialogue got too schmaltzy to bear, at least I was able focus on how perfectly pressed her husband Martin Ginsburg's (Armie Hammer) shirts were.

It's not just the script and the direction. The supporting roles are all over the place too. Sam Waterson (Law & Order) does not help this film feel any less like a TV movie, but at least he doesn't think he's in a Broadway production. Halfway through the film, an over-the-top Kathy Bates shows up to play a completely fictional character. Justin Theroux (The Leftovers) may just be the only one who felt like he lived in this era.

Somewhere in this Basis of Sex & The City episode lies one of the most fascinating legal cases of the last Century. This is too big of a story for such a sub-par treatment. When a fire alarm went off during the screening I attended and required that we empty the theater for a few minutes, not everyone chose to return. Maybe it will be OK on TV later.

In a nutshell: Stream the inspiring, in-depth 2018 documentary RBG instead.

Award potential: None.

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth ten bucks.

Vice

“What do we believe in?”

Aught-era movie The Big Short, directed by Adam McKay and starring Christian Bale and Steve Carell, was my favorite movie of 2015. Vice, directed by Adam McKay and starring Christian Bale and Steve Carrell, is not my favorite film of 2018 — but it is a lot of fun.

McKay's talent for simplifying complex subjects and presenting them in an entertaining way works here for most of the film. The full life story of Dick Cheney (Bale) is told with the use of graphics, news clips and fourth wall conversations. I leaned in for most, but unlike The Big Short (with more likeable characters), two hours with Cheney becomes exhausting. 

You'll know the American history milestones presented here, but how much of it you connect to Cheney depends on how much you were paying attention and how far you now believe his unchecked power went. Vice certainly presents an opinion.

Vice also presents a strong solid cast playing Lynne Cheney (Amy Adams), Donald Rumsfeld (Carell), George W. Bush (Sam Rockwell) and Colin Powell (Tyler Perry). Rockwell, who disappears into his character, steals every scene and ups the entertainment value of this film, but Perry's star appearance is disruptive and distracting.

Cheney is probably the most influential American politician in modern history that we don't really know much about. You'll probably feel the same after seeing this film.

In a nutshell: A big, funny movie about Dick Cheney, ironically short of heart. McKay's humorous touch to serious history works well until the final arc, which is crueler and darker. 

Award potential: Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay are very likely. Expect acting nominations for Christian Bale, Amy Adams and Sam Rockwell who steals every scene. Bale and Adams are front runners but it's too soon to reward last year's winner Rockwell again. Although she's consistently one of the best actresses of the decade, I'm not convinced that Amy Adams will finally win an Oscar (or Globe or SAG) for a wife-of-the-subject role. She just doesn't have that big moment that Oscar voters like to reward. I wish that she's rewarded for something stronger and in the Best Actress category. The film should do well in the Golden Globes Comedy/Musical category and at the SAG actor and ensemble awards.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.

Golden Globes - Who's the favourite to win?

Historically, the Hollywood Foreign Press is kinda weird and all-over-the-place; Working Girl, Mrs. Doubtfire and The Hangover have actually won Best Motion Picture Comedy/Musical, and The Martian won despite not being a comedy or very good. 

But rest easy, The Ten Buck Review has an 82% correct prediction rate that could help you win your awards pool (or at least look really darn smart during the telecast). Who are the favourites? Here's what's gonna happen:

Best Motion Picture — Drama

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Winner: A Star Is Born

Spoiler: BlacKkKlansman

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama

Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Winner: Lady Gaga

Spoiler: Glenn Close (15-time nominee, 2 wins for television, Oscars front runner)

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Winner: Rami Malek

Spoiler: Bradley Cooper

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice

Winner: The Favourite

Spoiler: Green Book

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Winner: Olivia Colman

Spoiler: Emily Blunt

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

Winner: Christian Bale

Spoiler: Viggo Mortensen

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Winner: Regina King

Spoiler: Amy Adams

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Winner: Richard E. Grant

Spoiler: Mahershala Ali

Best Director — Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice

Winner: Alfonso Cuarón

Spoiler: Bradley Cooper

Best Screenplay — Motion Picture

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay, Vice
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book

Winner: The Favourite

Spoiler: Vice

Best Motion Picture — Animated

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Winner: Isle of Dogs

Spoiler: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Motion Picture — Foreign Language

Capernaum
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

Winner: Roma

Spoiler: Shoplifters

Best Original Score — Motion Picture

Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place
Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns

Winner: First Man

Spoiler: Black Panther

Best Original Song — Motion Picture

All the Stars, Black Panther (Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, Mark Spears, Solana Rowe, Al Shuckburgh)

Girl in the Movies, Dumplin' (Dolly Parton and Linda Perry)
Requiem for a Private War, A Private War (Annie Lennox)
Revelation, Boy Erased (Troye Silvan, Jonsi, Jon Thor Birgisson, Brett McLaughlin)
Shallow, A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)

Winner: Shallow

Spoiler: All the Stars