The SAG awards match Oscars' selections more often than the Golden Globes, yet the inexplicable, kooky Hollywood Foreign Press Association's awards get all of our attention.
The 90 members of the HFPA have just one overlap with the 9,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Oscars). Yet, somehow a Golden Globe nod provides a positive impact on both Academy voters and Oscars campaigns. An omission tomorrow could hurt a film on the border, such as First Man, Eight Grade or Mary Poppins Returns.
That said, here's what's going to happen tomorrow:
Best Picture, Drama
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
In the past, subpar films like Matt Damon's The Martian will enter the Comedy/Musical category to secure a slot. However, this year the race for one of the five drama slots are going to be more, well, dramatic.
Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star Is Born, Blakkklansman and Can You Ever Forgive Me?, despite their obvious musical or comedy elements, have each been submitted (by their respective studio) in the drama category. The HFPA may vote however they want.
Most predictions have First Man in the top five but I think this group may be wowed less by an artful, solemn treatment of an American astronaut and more by a glossy celebration of an international rockstar, so I bumped up the Queen biopic. Roma is not eligible.
Spoiler: First Man
Shocker: Melissa McCarthy’s Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
The romantic film of the year, Crazy Rich Asians, is at the top of most GG prediction lists but it’s light on comedy and musical. I’ve replaced it with Green Book which is peaking at nomination time
Spoiler: Crazy Rich Asians
Shocker: The well reviewed, kiddie sequel Paddington 2
Best Actress, Drama
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Spoiler: Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Shocker: Julia Roberts, Ben is Back or Maggie Gyllenhaal,The Kindergarten Teacher or Toni Colette, Hereditary
Best Actor, Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian RhapsodyI
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Spoiler: Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
Shocker: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman or Willem Dafoe, Eternity’s Gate or Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Shocker: Voters placing Melissa McCarthy, from Can You Ever Forgive Me? in this category instead
Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins ReturnsViggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2
Shocker: Henry Golding,Crazy Rich Asians, or Nick Robinson Love, Simon
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Spoiler: Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Shocker: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Spoiler: Sam Rockwell, Vice
Shocker: Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite or Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
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