With most films being viewed at home in 2020, it's a unique year for Oscars so we’re gonna need some math to help your Oscar office pool. Here's how to win:
Win the Best Director category
The Academy has been hoping to have its second woman winner sooner than later. The top two nominees should provide that. Go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched in all but seven of a whopping 72 years. And the Oscar goes to: Nomadland's director Chloé Zhao
Win the Best Cinematography category
The cinematographer's award (ASC) is a good one to watch. They announced their winner at the time of this writing —Erik Messerschmidt for Mank. But for or six of the last eight years, this award has gone hand-in-hand with Best Director (likely Nomadland). The British Film Academy Film Awards (BAFTA), a broader group, already chose Nomadland. You should too.
Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category
Five stunning films are nominated, but only one of them is also nominated for another award and it has all the buzz — Best Director Thomas Vinterberg's Danish film, Another Round.
Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category
The respected Writers Guild (WGA) did not have Nomadland or The Father as eligible options and chose Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. (I know.) Britain's BAFTA chose The Father (of course they did). The USC Scripter Awards, which has accurately predicted this category for 8 of the last 11 years, chose Nomadland.
The math is 50/50 here, Nomadland has been the frontrunner, but it may be a place to reward The Father.
Win the Best Original Screenplay category
The winner category most often parallels the WGA’s winner, Promising Young Woman, which also won at BAFTA. A repeat at Oscars seems promising.
Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories
The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. Their picks align with Oscar more than any other. This means we'll be celebrating most diverse collection of winners in Oscars history: Chadwick Boseman, Viola Davis, Daniel Kaluuya and Yuh-jung Youn should polish their speeches now.
Win the Best Animated Feature Film category
Eleven out of fifteen PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award, and it was true of last year’s winner Toy Story 4. They chose the obvious choice, Soul. The Annie Award/BAFTA combo is huge. Since BAFTA introduced the Animated Feature award, they’ve predicted the winner in thirteen of the past fifteen years. Get ready for a Soul winner of all three.
Win the Best Music (Original Song) category
There’s not a lot of math for this category, just remember that all members (not just musicians) vote in this category. No song has more relevance to its film than "Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga) and it has a lot of attention, but H.E.R. is having an awards streak and her "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah may get noticed too. I suspect most voters have heard the Hamilton crooner and "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami.
Win the Best Music (Original Score) category
NIN's Trent Reznor and Jon Batiste are nominated for the top two frontrunners, Mank and Soul. This award most often aligns with the BAFTA Award for Best Film Music, which honored Soul. It took the Golden Globe too. The Oscar goes to Soul and the guy from Nine Inch Nails.
Win the Best Sound category
Sound Editing has always gone to the loudest, ear-ringing war film or action film and Sound Mixing rewarded the most euphonic sound mixing and would often award craft details in movies such as Fast and the Furious.
All that is history, the two have been combined into one award and the math starts fresh. Good thing there's a slam dunk choice and a film that uses sound to put viewers into the world of a man losing his hearing. Drumroll please....it's Sound of Metal.
Win the Best Editing category
While it's a different discipline, for the last seven years, the film editors have aligned with Best Sound. Your safest bet is Sound of Metal, but this is another place The Father could sneak in. Your best call on if you think voters actually watched this film about dementia.
Win the Best Production Design category
This award, renamed from “Best Art Direction” in 2012, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (4 times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award. The AGAs went to Tenet (Fantasy), Mank (Period) and Da Five Bloods (Contemporary), which is not nominated at Oscars. This looks like the place the Academy could reward the highly respected Mank.
Win the Best Costume Design category
100+-year-old period pieces (Emma) almost always beat fantasy (Pinocchio) ones. But this year we have some younger periods to mess up the math (Mank, Ma Rainey, Mulan). Look to the BAFTAs who ignored Ma Rainey (including Boseman and Davis) in all categories except one. The Oscar goes to Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category
The Oscar goes to Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
Win the Best Visual Effects category
Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 10 of the 18 years. They chose The Midnight Sky. But, the VES and the Oscars have differed in each of the past three years with the Oscar going to the more premier film. BAFTA chose Tenet, a divisive but more widely seen film. Tenet is divisive so I'd give the edge to The Midnight Sky.
Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)
I used to suggest that the most widely accessible film always wins and usually said a Netflix film. This year, two are on Netflix, two on Amazon, and one on Hulu. Well, that doesn't doesn't help. I'm going with the one that has been around the longest and has the broadest appeal. Go with The Octopus Teacher.
Win the Best Animated Short Film category
If Anything Happens I Love You is on a whole different level of both story and animation inspiration.
Win the Best Documentary Short category
Go with heralded A Love Song for Latasha
Win the Best Live Action Short Film category
The Oscar goes to Two Distant Strangers. Repeat.
Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.
In 2002, the show ran four hours and 23 minutes. Whew! With limited time during covid-19 protocol years, I expect they will want to keep the ceremony moving.
Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes
Tiebreaker question: Which film will win the most awards?
Mank has the most nominations at 10 but should be the biggest loser with just one or two wins (Production Design and maybe Cinematorgrahy). Nomadland is on track for three big ones (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Screenplay) but is vulnerable. Ma Rainey is your better bet to win four — it's a front runner in its four categories.
Win the Best Picture category
I saved the biggest (and toughest) category for last because we're going to have to narrow down nine contenders. I hope the music doesn't cut me off before I finish.
1. We know that past films without an editing nomination don’t often win the best prize. That eliminates Minari, Judas, and Mank
2. No film in the past 11 years has won the best picture Oscar without being nominated by both the Directors Guild and BAFTA, so let’s take out The Father and Sound of Metal.
3. At this point, I’d normally eliminate any without a screenplay nomination. But our final three all have that.
1. Nomadland
2. Promising Young Woman
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. The Globes (Nomadland) and SAG (The Trial of the Chicago Seven) don’t align consistently, but it’s rare when a film doesn’t win at least one of three options. Let's take out Promising Young Woman.The Critics Choice chose Nomadland (70% alignment with Oscars). For nine of the last twelve years, the Producers Guild’s choice for Best Picture went on to claim the top prize at the Oscars. They did not match last year. They chose Nomadland. For 11 out of 15 years, the picture that won both PGA and Golden Globe took the Oscar too. Expect last year when that stat lost. They also both chose Nomadland this year.
The math is clear on Nomadland. But every year since the tiered voting took over, films that have been in the lead most of the season are upset and it feels that way again. But, if you're betting money, you can't bet on a shocker. Nomadland is the one to beat.
Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!
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