3 crowd-pleasing theater films for the holidays

Some movies out there are frightful. But a few this year are so delightful. 

Holiday 2020 offered a new film for the holidays, Wonder Woman 1984, a day-and-date theater and streaming release film that was so bad I almost walked out of my own house. Early 2021 didn’t offer many gems to convince people to return to their ol’ cinema habit (I’m looking at you Spencer), but it ended with some strong films. Bonus, a few of them fit the tone of the holidays and are safe to bring most of the family to.

It's more of a rarity than you'd think. With award nomination voting season about to hit, December often sees more dramas than the season would normally invite. I always feel bad for families who ventured out on Christmas Day to see fan-favorite Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep together in August Osage County (2013), a dysfunctional family drama about death, funerals and horrifying family secrets. Even the festively named Four Christmases (2008) with Reese Witherspoon and Vince Vaughn was a divorce downer to anyone who attended.

So, while I do recommend Netflix and Jane Campion’s powerful Power of the Dog (2021), this is not your family gathering event, trust me. Save this for the winter doldrums of January — and opt for these instead:

Belfast
From the very start, open up your heart; Belfast is a story of everlasting love. Set in 1969 during the height of the conflicts between Protestants and Catholics, Kenneth Branagh’s love letter to his youth is a family drama that you won’t soon forget. 

It’s a black-and-white film featuring characters with names such as Ma and Pa and it comes with its share of drama, but you’ll fall in love with Buddy’s family and fall for its uplifting vibe. I suggest the theater for this if you have a safe option. If not, you can stream it on VOD through Apple or similar services. Expect to see this and Power of the Dog perform strongly on Oscar nomination day.

Spider-Man: No Way Home
I have mixed feelings about the superhero serials, but it's been years since I was in a movie theater with gasps, laughs, cheers and spontaneous clapping during the film. Spider-Man: No Way Home earns it. There’s one sad moment, but ultimately it’s an uplifting film full of redemption for the characters and joyful surprises for the audience. Simply put, Spider-Man may just save the day — and movie theaters.

West Side Story (2021)
It should have been a lose-lose idea. Staying close to the 10-Oscar winning classic could be too corny. Redoing it; blasphemy. But Spielberg’s vision worked in all the right places while keeping the perfect tone. Turns out, we need both the perfect and 1961 film and a new one.

Despite all the young, first-love romance and vibrant singing and dancing, there are definitely serious storylines from start to finish. However, they are not shown any more graphically than in 1961 and are no less sad than Romeo and Juliet.

Bonus: In The Heights 

So if you prefer your Puerto Rican culture without the side of tears, stream the excellent In The Heights at home. It’s one of 2021’s best films and it’s a joy from start to finish.

Happy Holidays and have a happy time at the movies!

Spider-Man: No Way Home

SPOILER-FREE

At this point, the Marvel and DC  films are mostly soap opera serials, answering questions from other films, building on the core stories and opening up magical portals to the next ticket purchase.

I have mixed feelings about superhero films. The year started with Wonder Woman 1984 on my TV screen. It was a film so bad that I wanted to walk out of my own house. Summer brought us Black Widow, a film that brought people back to the theater only to realize it wasn't such a fun time and potentially ruin the international pastime. If not for Annette, Black Widow would have been my pick for absolutely worst time at the cinema this year.

But then there are the Avenger films, offering a grand time at the movies and the joy of feeling like a kid again for a two or three-hour ride that feels like half of that. Spider-Man: No Way Home, a lighthearted film full of treats, is just like those fave Avengers films—and it may save the movie houses.

The surprises start early and just when I was thinking the fights and legendary matchups were all stopping short of where they could go, I realize they were pacing us for the finale where they go all in. Memorable movie moments ensued.

It's been years since I was in a movie theater with gasps, laughs, cheers and spontaneous clapping during the film. Spider-Man: No Way Home earns it.

The Ten Buck Review: My low expectation spider-sense was off; this was great fun and a wildy entertaining, unique story. As a bonus, no bad guy gets large so they have to throw a special thing at it.

Award potential: Fan favorite? Not really an Oscar contender except Best VFX.

Where to see it: In the theaters, thank goodness.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

West Side Story (2021)

When I first heard that Spielberg’s first-ever musical, something he’s hinted at for decades, would be a remake of the near-perfect, 10-Oscar winning West Side Story, I imagined my review would begin with this line from the lyrics of its key song— “We'll find a way of forgiving.”

Well, I was wrong. There’s a place for this. Turns out, we need both the perfect and 1961 film and a new one.

It should have been a lose-lose idea. Staying close to the 10-Oscar winning classic could be too corny. Redoing it; blasphemy. But Spielberg’s vision worked in all the right places while keeping the perfect tone.

He also did the unthinkable. The climactic, signature song “Somewhere” is no longer sung by the lead couple. Instead, EGOT winner Rita Moreno, in a new role (Valentina), does. Moreno, who won an Oscar for the original, adds new depth and layers to the song making it more moving and profound. The first Latina Oscar winner delivers lines such as “there’s a place for us” with extra heft and meaning with her quiet, powerful voice. It is not a cameo. It is the heart of the film.

Baby Driver star Ansel Elgort (Tony) initially seemed somewhat inferior seen side by side with Broadway singers and dancers, but eventually won me over. In today’s enlightened, media-savvy world, it’s most important that the role delivers on the earnest naivety of a young man who would do anything for a first love. I believed it.

Juliet to his Romeo, Rachel Ann Zegler, a YouTuber discovered in a search for this role, lights up the screen and is dazzling. And Arian DeBose (Hamilton) has the unenviable task of appearing onscreen with Moreno in the role she’s famous for, Anita. She rocks it. Simply put, the full cast of performers is A+mazing.

It is an all-star production not to be missed. Take Leonard Bernstein’s music and Stephen Sondheim’s lyrics, add this generation's most rounded A-list director (Schindlers List, ET), a script by Tony Kushner (Angels in America, Munich, Lincoln), dazzling, swooping, wide-scoped choreography by visionary Justin Peck, this cast, and Leapin’ Lizards! you have one of the best films of any year.

In a nutshell: Something good. Spielberg’s musical debut pulls off the impossible; it’s a can’t miss film.

Award potential: A front runner for all the top categories. If Moreno is nominated, she’ll be the first to do so twice for the same film title.

Where to see it: In theaters. I recommend IMAX or the largest screen near you.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

The Power of the Dog

“Adapted from Thomas Savage's dramatic novel of the American West” and “directed by Jane Champion” are two phrases I never expected to put together, yet The Power of the Dog is just that.

Champion’s films (The Piano, Portrait of a Lady) are generally a work of castration to its characters and well, mankind. Fittingly, her first movie in a decade delivers an actual one. The gritty cowboy scenes with animals may beg you to look away, but it is boorish cowboy Phil Burbank (Benedict Cumberbatch) who is the real horror. 

It's a performance that you just can’t look away from.

Phil is somewhere between a nuisance and a terror to this brother (Jesse Plemons) and family (Kirsten Dunst, Kodi Smit-McPhee) who all inhabit a 1925 cattle ranch. Both big and intimate in story and visuals, Champion directed the film with bold precision in both open-air settings and tight, light-filled corners. Its beauty is a testament to Champion's auteur skills—as is her handling of building momentum for the final turn. Champion kept me guessing at the path and the ending and I was truly surprised at the final landing place. A rare feat.

In a nutshell: Expertly crafted storytelling; a dark but excellent 2021 film.

Award Potential: Cumberbatch has never been better and newcomer Smit-McPhee is a standout. Although Cumberbatch reportedly did not shower throughout the shoot, he’ll be showering and dressing up for the red carpet (Best Actor) as well as Smit-McPhee (Best Supporting Actor).

The film, director, cinematographer, screenplay, and technical categories should round up tons of Academy Award nominations. If there’s room, Plemons and Dunst may be there in supporting categories as well. The film has already received a Golden Globe and NY Film Critics nod for Best Picture as well as a landside of Critics list wins.

At this point in the Oscar race, which is perhaps too soon to say this, it looks like we'll have women director wins back to back (following Chloe Zhao's win for Nomadland). 

Where to see it: Out of theaters; now on Netflix

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks

Spencer

You've probably heard that Spencer contains Kristen Stewart's best performance yet and it's worthy of an Academy Award nomination. That's completely true, but is the film any good? Is it worth ten pounds?

It's not. Director Pablo Larrain (Jackie) has created another singular-performance film that is artfully produced but lacking in any entertainment value. As a fabled, reimagination of events around a Christmas gathering at Sandringham House in 1991, it offers no true insight into the historical events surrounding the final royally-married days of Princess Diana either. 

The film opens with the words "A fable from a true tragedy," and hints at a horror film with a pipe-organ score from Radiohead's Jonny Greenwood (There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread), claustrophobic horror movie editing and an actual, unintentionally laughable haunted house. Not kidding. 

We already know that Diana Spencer's privileged life was not one to envy. However, it was certainly not a horror story at this level. I usually have oodles of empathy for any part of her story whether in a documentary or in The Crown series, but my main takeaway from this film was just that Kristen Stewart did a solid, transformed impression. Bravo?

I also want to say it was artfully shot and executed, but in the same way that you might nod to general experimentation in a student film or old 80's music videos. Bravo?

The curiosity factor on this film is high; I understand. If you fellow royalphiles go anyway or those that want to see an Oscar Nominee, you have to go. I imagine that this film will be as memorable to you as the director's equally draining and otherwise totally forgettable Jackie. 

In a nutshell: A royal mess. Ask yourself, how much moping to organ music can you stand?

Award potential: Natalie Portman was nominated for Jackie. Kristen Stewart will be nominated for Best Actress as well. Stewart will be the only nomination for this film. All other actors in the film play one-dimensional foils ranging from the stiff royal family to the equally-cold staff and the evil press.

The costumes are fabulous onscreen, but matching specific historical pieces rarely beats out original designs in the Best Costume Design category. 

Where to see it: In theaters.

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth ten bucks.

Run from this film as fast as you can

Belfast

Nostalgia meets history. Hope meets glory.

Kenneth Branagh has directed some of this era’s best films from English sources (Hamlet, Henry V) and some of its worst from English/Irish sources (Murder on the Orient Express, Artemis Fowl, Thor), so it was a roll of the dice to walk into Belfast, his semi-biographical story of growing up in Northern Ireland.

The film made its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival — and it’s one of the best films of 2021.

Set in 1969 during the height of the conflicts between Protestants and Catholics, Branagh’s love letter to his youth is a family drama that you won’t soon forget. The main characters are so well-drawn, and the cinematography is so vivid and authentically tight that you’re pulled into a family drama that feels like your own.

Nine-year-old Buddy from Belfast (Jude Hill) and his family are Protestant, but his Pa (Jamie Dornan) works for the English government, which makes Ma (Caitriona Balfe) and grandparents (Judi Dench and Ciaran Hinds) targets to the unrest. The family story is the focus here, but the trouble in Northern Ireland serves as the catalyst for why they may have to abandon their home—and hometown.

Branagh, cinematographer Haris Zambarloukos and production designer Jim Clay have assembled a beautiful, black-and-white (mostly) gem and current frontrunner for film of the year. As the heart-tearing final family decisions play out — mostly as small moments — movie magic is accomplished.

In a nutshell: From the very start, open up your heart; it's a story of everlasting love. Buddy’s whole family is going to sneak into your heart.

Award potential: Expect Oscar nominations for Best Motion Picture and across all major and technical categories. Focus Features announced that they will campaign young Jude Hill for Lead Actor and everyone else in Best Supporting categories. The Academy may see it another way but voters most often respect these wishes. 

If nominated, Judi Dench would be the second oldest Supporting Actress nominee ever. But Balfe is the standout here — it’s early in the awards season, but I’ll place her as the frontrunner to win)

Where to see it: Only in theaters. Opens November 11.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

The French Dispatch

Wes Anderson’s (Rushmore, Moonrise Kingdom, The Royal Tenenbaums, Isle of Dogs) tenth feature is a love letter to one of his lifelong passions, reading New Yorker stories. Anderson, who has bound copies since his teen years, once bought a full collection of bound New Yorker magazines. That likely explains why such a talented director went so wrong with The French Dispatch.

Framed as three articles in a final issue of the fictional French Dispatch Sunday supplement, this is an anthology film that might have worked as a bingeable 6-part streamer but does not as a film. The quiet magazine setup does not hold enough intrigue to hold audience interest — especially as the title cards set up the disappointing news that this is going to be a collection of unconnected short stories with no destination in sight.

The sites, however, are intoxicatingly bold and full of visual delights and the stars are top favorites. Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Christolph Waltz, William Dafoe, Ed Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Jason Schwartzman, Angelika Huston, Henry Winkler and more. Unfortunately, as each title card cued another story, I simply wanted to know how many short stories there are going to be, and when this might end.

The first story, featuring Benicio Del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Lea Seydoux and others is a gem, fully realized. The second, featuring Frances McDormand (this year’s Oscar Best Actress winner) and Timothee Chalamet (hot off Dune’s success this past weekend) requires patience as does the third story. While every frame is beautifully crafted, I can’t recommend this film.

In a nutshell: Apparently, watching the New Yorker come to life is a meandering journey.

Award potential: Unlike The Grand Budapest Hotel, we won’t see this one in the list of Best Picture nominees but Anderson is always a nomination contender for Best Production Design (the old Art Direction category) and potentially Best Costume.

Where to watch: In theaters now. 

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth ten bucks.

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

These eyes. 

There is only one reason to see this film — Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Baker. She lights up every screen moment she’s in.

The meandering film makes the mistake of telling their full life story. Although it’s a wild journey, a better film would have chosen a single point in time to focus on.

The film, directed by Michael Showalter (The Big Sick) is seen through the eyes of Tammy Faye. We see the story of Jim (Andrew Garfield) and Tammy Faye Baker's rise from Bible College to leaders of PTL as well as their heavily publicized fall from Grace. While it is amazing and unbelievable that this happened in front of everyone else’s eyes, the long chronological journey threatens to make this film a TV movie.

The film borders on exploring some powerful thoughts about the delicate role of religion and the benefits of mass media, but it never really gets there.

But then there’s Jessica Chastain playing someone you can’t turn away from — a real-life caricature. And it’s totally worth seeing.

In a nutshell: You just can makeup this stuff up. An amazing story told just OK.

Award potential. Nominations for Best Actress only. It’s all Tammy Faye. The other characters never generate any interest, despite being mesmerizing characters themselves (Jerry Falwell, Jim Baker, Pat Robinson).

Where to watch: In theaters now.

The Ten Buck Review: Tammy Faye is a site to see. Worth ten bucks.

Stillwater

I may be one of few people who didn't follow the actual story of Amanda Knox. I typically don't gravitate to that type of news story, so I'm not the main audience for this film either. That said, the one thing I knew about her case had a large effect on how I viewed it — knowing that this is a fictional telling of that story.

Stillwater is based on the case of Oklahoma-native Knox who was famously convicted of a murder in Italy and spent four years in prison before an appeals court overturned her sentence. You know that part already, right? The film follows her father (Matt Damon) and his attempt to clear her name and find the person who killed her roommate (although in the film, the victim is now her lover). Oh, and the Dad never solved the case in real life. And the core surprises in the film never happened either. Neither did that other thing that I can't reveal but derails the film. Also, the romance didn't happen.

I could defend many and most historical films that take creative license to tell a cinematic story. We don't know what was really said behind the walls of The Crown. There was no Jack and Rose on the Titanic. But for me, this is too recent to tell such a wild tale.

If none of that was true, this would be a solid thriller that is better than any recent Liam Neeson revenge flick. It's directed at a high cinematic level by Tom McCarthy (Spotlight, Visitor) and well above the quality of other summer films. I just can't recommend the whole package.

In a nutshell: Irresponsible concept. Expertly done. Next time, just write a fictional tale.

Award potential: Damon will be mentioned in the Best Acor slot until winter when there are more options. I'm not a fan of Matt Damon and how he grins and begs viewers to think he's awesome, but in an understated role where he plays a guy that people realize is not at all awesome at what he does, he's winning at that role. 

Where to watch: In theaters now.

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth your ten bucks.

Annette

Visionary French director Leos Carax (Holy Motors) teamed up with cult-art pop group Sparks to create an ambitious musical that is more David Lynch than Damien Chazelle. 

Adam Driver (BlackKlansman, Marriage Story), Marion Cotillard (La Vie en rose) and Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins, Big Bang Theory) play the key roles in a tortured love story that is so downbeat, dark, and surreal you never once care about the characters.

Anyone who saw Edgar Wright's documentary The Sparks Brothers will instantly be disappointed as their desire to make a movie figured prominently in that documentary — a flick that is certainly more worth your time than this meandering experiment. I doubt there is much demand in 2021 for a two-hour and twenty-minute musical bummer. 

Even those who love alt-film and the avant-garde will likely squirm. I'd rather listen to "Baby Shark" for two hours than a repeat of "So May We Start.”

In a nutshell: Musical miss or mess? Probably the biggest of both in 2021.

Award potential: Despite being the premier film at Cannes and taking Best Director for many amazing scenes, Annette will not be mentioned during award season.

Where to find it: In theaters now. Available on Amazon Prime August 20, 2021.

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth ten bucks.

Zola

Truth is stranger than fiction.

With a few exceptions, most “books are better than the movie.” So, what happens when a famously followed tweet storm becomes a Hollywood film?

In 2015, Hooters waitress and part-time stripper A’Ziah King tweeted a series of increasingly insane updates on her adventure to Florida to earn quick cash with another stripper she recently met. The girls’ trip (they are named Zola and Stephanie here) quickly goes downhill involving all the things you’ll find in the stereotypical stripper story — except somehow this isn’t your typical take.

The script, which mirrors the tweets in tone and content, was written by Tony-nominated playwright Jeremy O. Harris together with director Janicza Bravo (Lemon). Tweet-originator A’Ziah King is executive producer and collaborator on the film.

Credit each author’s ability to be in the middle of the story while somehow looking at it from afar, rolling eyes. and making us cackle at how crazy each situation is. Plus, major credit for big and small laughs go to Taylour Paige's (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) subtly-rewarding performance — and Riley Keough's over-the-top-with-extensions performance.

The film works at a brisk pace and totally works as both Friday night entertainment and affirmation of the power of a female gaze. While it arrives on TVs soon, much will be missed by not watching this in the theater. I got an extra kick out of the communal reaction to the eye rolls, some cover-your-eyes NSW moments, and the subtle performance of Paige — including a moment where she takes cleaning products to the pole.

In a nutshell: See it in the theater; don’t take the whole family.

Award potential: It will be included in some early lists for movie, actors, and screenplay as it’s one of few strong films at this point in the year. I don’t expect to hear any buzz nomination time next February — its best bet is adapted screenplay.

Where to find it: In theaters now and on-demand Friday, July 23.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

 

EUROVISION SONG CONTEST: The Story Of Fire Saga

 

I thought Will Ferrell's transition from SNL to the big screen in Old School (2003) and Anchorman (2004) was seamless. I own a copy of Stepbrothers (2008), a perfect buddy comedy. After that, it's been downhill until 2020's aptly titled non-comedy Downhill. He's put out dozens of concept movies in search of one single laugh. He's Sherlock! An ice dancer! A basketball semi-pro! A cop! A racecar driver!

I really thought the one thing you could count on to be non-funny is a thin comedy sketch, genre concept movie with Will Ferrell involved. 

Even less funny are music videos that are supposed to be a parody. That's how this film starts. I can't believe I loved this film about an Icelandic couple competing in The Eurovision Song Contest, an actual American Idol-style song competition that once put Abba on the map.

Ferrell plays Lars Erickssong, a long-haired clueless dreamer who with Sigrit Ericksdottir (Rachel McAdams), makes up the band Fire Saga. I know, I know, it sounds horrible. But the pratfalls are undeniably funny, the songs are a hoot, and the story progresses to a heartfelt finale.

I was tricked into watching the film to discover why its song was the frontrunner for Academy Award for Best Original Song. Lucky me.

In a nutshell: All the elements of a bad film are here, but it's a lot of fun and a great Netflix night. You'll probably add "Ja Ja Ding Dong" to your playlists too.

Award potential: "Husavik" was frontrunner for Oscars' Best Original Song, losing to H.E.R.'s "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah

Where to find it: Netflix

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Win your Oscars office pool with stat-tastic help

With most films being viewed at home in 2020, it's a unique year for Oscars so we’re gonna need some math to help your Oscar office pool. Here's how to win:

Win the Best Director category
The Academy has been hoping to have its second woman winner sooner than later. The top two nominees should provide that. Go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched in all but seven of a whopping 72 years. And the Oscar goes to: Nomadland's director Chloé Zhao

Win the Best Cinematography category
The cinematographer's award (ASC) is a good one to watch. They announced their winner at the time of this writing —Erik Messerschmidt for Mank. But for or six of the last eight years, this award has gone hand-in-hand with Best Director (likely Nomadland). The British Film Academy Film Awards (BAFTA), a broader group, already chose Nomadland. You should too.

Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category
Five stunning films are nominated, but only one of them is also nominated for another award and it has all the buzz — Best Director Thomas Vinterberg's Danish film, Another Round.

Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category
The respected Writers Guild (WGA) did not have Nomadland or The Father as eligible options and chose Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. (I know.) Britain's BAFTA chose The Father (of course they did). The USC Scripter Awards, which has accurately predicted this category for 8 of the last 11 years, chose Nomadland.
The math is 50/50 here, Nomadland has been the frontrunner, but it may be a place to reward The Father.

Win the Best Original Screenplay category
The winner category most often parallels the WGA’s winner, Promising Young Woman, which also won at BAFTA. A repeat at Oscars seems promising.

Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories
The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. Their picks align with Oscar more than any other. This means we'll be celebrating most diverse collection of winners in Oscars history: Chadwick Boseman, Viola Davis, Daniel Kaluuya and Yuh-jung Youn should polish their speeches now.

Win the Best Animated Feature Film category
Eleven out of fifteen PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award, and it was true of last year’s winner Toy Story 4. They chose the obvious choice, Soul. The Annie Award/BAFTA combo is huge. Since BAFTA introduced the Animated Feature award, they’ve predicted the winner in thirteen of the past fifteen years. Get ready for a Soul winner of all three.

Win the Best Music (Original Song) category
There’s not a lot of math for this category, just remember that all members (not just musicians) vote in this category. No song has more relevance to its film than "Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga) and it has a lot of attention, but H.E.R. is having an awards streak and her "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah may get noticed too. I suspect most voters have heard the Hamilton crooner and "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami.

Win the Best Music (Original Score) category
NIN's Trent Reznor and Jon Batiste are nominated for the top two frontrunners, Mank and Soul. This award most often aligns with the BAFTA Award for Best Film Music, which honored Soul. It took the Golden Globe too. The Oscar goes to Soul and the guy from Nine Inch Nails.

Win the Best Sound category
Sound Editing has always gone to the loudest, ear-ringing war film or action film and Sound Mixing rewarded the most euphonic sound mixing and would often award craft details in movies such as Fast and the Furious.

All that is history, the two have been combined into one award and the math starts fresh. Good thing there's a slam dunk choice and a film that uses sound to put viewers into the world of a man losing his hearing. Drumroll please....it's Sound of Metal.

Win the Best Editing category
While it's a different discipline, for the last seven years, the film editors have aligned with Best Sound. Your safest bet is Sound of Metal, but this is another place The Father could sneak in. Your best call on if you think voters actually watched this film about dementia.

Win the Best Production Design category
This award, renamed from “Best Art Direction” in 2012, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (4 times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award. The AGAs went to Tenet (Fantasy), Mank (Period) and Da Five Bloods (Contemporary), which is not nominated at Oscars. This looks like the place the Academy could reward the highly respected Mank.

Win the Best Costume Design category
100+-year-old period pieces (Emma) almost always beat fantasy (Pinocchio) ones. But this year we have some younger periods to mess up the math (Mank, Ma Rainey, Mulan). Look to the BAFTAs who ignored Ma Rainey (including Boseman and Davis) in all categories except one. The Oscar goes to Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category
The Oscar goes to Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Win the Best Visual Effects category
Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 10 of the 18 years. They chose The Midnight Sky. But, the VES and the Oscars have differed in each of the past three years with the Oscar going to the more premier film. BAFTA chose Tenet, a divisive but more widely seen film. Tenet is divisive so I'd give the edge to The Midnight Sky.

Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)
I used to suggest that the most widely accessible film always wins and usually said a Netflix film. This year, two are on Netflix, two on Amazon, and one on Hulu. Well, that doesn't doesn't help. I'm going with the one that has been around the longest and has the broadest appeal. Go with The Octopus Teacher.

Win the Best Animated Short Film category
If Anything Happens I Love You is on a whole different level of both story and animation inspiration.

Win the Best Documentary Short category
Go with heralded A Love Song for Latasha

Win the Best Live Action Short Film category
The Oscar goes to Two Distant Strangers. Repeat.

Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.
In 2002, the show ran four hours and 23 minutes. Whew! With limited time during covid-19 protocol years, I expect they will want to keep the ceremony moving.

Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes

Tiebreaker question: Which film will win the most awards?
Mank has the most nominations at 10 but should be the biggest loser with just one or two wins (Production Design and maybe Cinematorgrahy). Nomadland is on track for three big ones (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Screenplay) but is vulnerable. Ma Rainey is your better bet to win four — it's a front runner in its four categories.

Win the Best Picture category
I saved the biggest (and toughest) category for last because we're going to have to narrow down nine contenders. I hope the music doesn't cut me off before I finish.

1. We know that past films without an editing nomination don’t often win the best prize. That eliminates Minari, Judas, and Mank

2. No film in the past 11 years has won the best picture Oscar without being nominated by both the Directors Guild and BAFTA, so let’s take out The Father and Sound of Metal.

3. At this point, I’d normally eliminate any without a screenplay nomination. But our final three all have that.

1. Nomadland
2. Promising Young Woman
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. The Globes (Nomadland) and SAG (The Trial of the Chicago Seven) don’t align consistently, but it’s rare when a film doesn’t win at least one of three options. Let's take out Promising Young Woman.The Critics Choice chose Nomadland (70% alignment with Oscars). For nine of the last twelve years, the Producers Guild’s choice for Best Picture went on to claim the top prize at the Oscars. They did not match last year. They chose Nomadland. For 11 out of 15 years, the picture that won both PGA and Golden Globe took the Oscar too. Expect last year when that stat lost. They also both chose Nomadland this year.

The math is clear on Nomadland. But every year since the tiered voting took over, films that have been in the lead most of the season are upset and it feels that way again. But, if you're betting money, you can't bet on a shocker. Nomadland is the one to beat. 

Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!

Another Round

Danish director Thomas Vinterberg’s (The Hunt) intoxicatingly good film takes us on the journey of four Danish schoolteachers who make a pact to keep their blood alcohol content at a constant level in the hope it will improve the quality of their lives. The idea is that a constant, low-level buzz releases stress.

Mads Mikkelsen (TV's Hannibal) plays Martin, a listless history teacher whose marriage and job are on the brink of crumbling. He and his scholastic buddies decide to test a hypothesis: that the body’s natural alcohol content is a couple drinks too low. Pretty soon the students in his dead-silent classes perk up with Dead Poet's Society enthusiasm and his marriage has a rise. In fact, all of the men's lives take a turn to the positive.

Spoiler alert: absinthe is almost always a bad idea. The original Danish title of Another Round is Druk, so it's not shocking that the sense of an impending crash pairs with every moment of +.05% BAC success. However, I still found surprise and delight in the final arc of the film.

Vinterberg said the idea came from when he and co-writer Tobias Lindholm looked at how many accomplishments in world history had been achieved by people who were drunk. 

The final scene lands midair, suspending us in the moment. It's magical, high-craft cinema and it's why the director of a Danish, international film landed one of the five Best Director slots at this year's Oscars — besting Regina King, Aaron Sorkin and Spike Lee.

In a nutshell: Smart, highly-crafted and ultimately moving. Anyone who complains every movie is a remake or a cliche needs to see this. 

Award potential: Nominated for Best International Feature Film and Best Directing. The buzz is that it's a lock for International Feature.

Find it: Currently streaming on Hulu.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Watch the 8 Best Picture nominees — from your couch

Eight films made the cut as a nominee for Oscar's prestigious Best Picture and this year there is no stinker in the bunch. Or should I say "no Joker in the bunch." Every film on this list is ten-buck worthy and (streaming on your TV by Friday of this week. Seven of them are on your TV as I write this, no joke. Enjoy!

Judas and the Black Messiah

Offered a plea deal by the FBI, Bill O'Neal (LaKeith Stanfield) infiltrates the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party to gather intelligence on Chairman Fred Hampton (Get Out's Daniel Kaluuya). If you think it sounds more like an undercover rat and gangster thriller than a Black Panther biopic, you are correct.

Nominated for: Best picture, supporting actor (2), 0riginal screenplay, and cinematography

Streaming on: Netflix

Mank

Director David Fincher (Se7en, Zodiac, The Social Network) tells the bittersweet story of fabled '30s screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz and the creation of Hollywood's most honored film, Citizen Kane. This black-and-white film is for cinephiles and insomniacs only, but I loved it and Amanda Seyfried's (Les Miserables, Mamma Mia) performance too.

Nominated for: Best picture, director, actor, supporting actress, cinematography, production design, score, sound, costume design, and makeup and hairstyling.

Streaming on: Netflix

Minari

A Korean American family moves to an Arkansas farm in search of its own American dream in this beautifully paced film. Golden Globes’ rule to exclude non-English language films from competing for Best Drama Film, relegating this to just Best Foreign Feature Film, has certainly raised its chances of winning here.

Nominated for: Best picture, director, actor, supporting actress, original screenplay and score.

Streaming on: VOD (Rent it on Amazon, Apple, Google Play, Vudu)

Nomadland

This unforgettable (but slow-paced) journey features the story of a woman (Frances McDormand) who embarks on a journey through the American West after losing everything during the recession. It's a well-timed film starring one of our best actresses with only one way to go on the front-runner list. It's a beautiful film that stays with you days after the ride.

Nominated for: Best picture, director, actress, adapted screenplay, cinematography and editing.

Streaming on: Hulu

Promising Young Woman

Newcomer director Emerald Fennell and actress Carey Mulligan (An Education) lead this energetic black-comedy revenge story that is the buzziest film of the year.

Nominated for: Best picture, director, actress, original screenplay and editing.

Streaming on: VOD (Rent it on Amazon, Apple, Google Play, Vudu)

Sound of Metal

Sound is my favorite 2020 movie and the film I'd most likely see again in a theater one day. It follows the story of a punk-metal drummer who is losing his hearing. Writer-Director Darius Marder (The Place Beyond The Pines), actor Riz Ahmed (Nightcrawler), and supporting actor Paul Raci don't miss a beat. It's a frontrunner for Best Sound (which it will win).

Nominated for: Best picture, actor, supporting actor, original screenplay, sound and editing.

Streaming on: Amazon Prime

The Father

Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Coleman star in this empathetic film about aging and dementia. I can't wait to see it Friday.

Nominated for: Best picture, actor, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, production design, film editing

Streaming on: VOD, starting Friday March 26

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The 8th nominated film follows an infamous trial of seven charged with conspiracy arising from counterculture protests. Sacha Baron Cohen is a standout in his role as left-wing provocateur Abbie Hoffman. If it feels like a TV show not a movie, well, Aaron Sorkin wrote the screenplay and directed this film.

Nominated for: Best picture, supporting actor, original screenplay, cinematography, song and editing.

Streaming on: Netflix




Bonus Features

Soul

Likely winner of Best Animated Feature: Soul. Pixar Animation Studios takes you on a journey from the streets of New York City to the Great Beyond and it's beyond great. My soul was touched by very few 2020 films in 2020. Sound of Metal, Nomadland, Da 5 Bloods — and this.

Nominated for: Best picture, animated feature, original score, sound

Streaming on: Disney+

Another Round

Likely winner of Best International Feature Film: Another Round. Only five directors get nominated each year, and Thomas Vinterberg did for this intoxicatingly good Danish film about a group a group of middle-aged teachers who make a pact to keep their blood alcohol content at a constant level each day in the hope it will improve the quality of their lives.

Nominated for: Best international feature film, director

Streaming on: Hulu

Who Gets An Oscar Nomination Tomorrow?

With a record of 78.7% nominations accuracy, here are my predictions for the most unusual, streamiest Oscar race ever. Mank, which won't win any in April, gets 13 nominations across all categories. 

Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoiler: News of the World
Shocker: Da 5 Bloods

Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Spoiler: Darius Marder, The Sound of Metal
Shocker: Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods), Paul Greengrass (News of the World), Regina King (One Night in Miami)

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun Aman, The Mauritanian
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank

Spoiler: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods , Steven Yeun, Minari
Shocker: Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Actress
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Spoiler: Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Shocker: Yeri Han, Minari

Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
David Strathairn, Nomadland

Spoiler: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Shocker: Frank Langella or Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Spoiler: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Shocker: Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

Spoiler: First Cow
Shocker: The Mauritanian

Best Original Screenplay
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoiler: Judas and the Black Messiah
Surprise: Da 5 Bloods

Best Documentary Feature
Crip Camp
Collective
My Octopus Teacher
Time
The Truffle Hunters

Spoiler: The Painter and the Thief, Welcome to Chechnya
Shocker: Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Mole Agent

Best International Feature
A Sun (Taiwan)
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Two of Us (France)

Spoiler: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Best Animated Feature
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Spoiler: The Croods: A New Age
Shocker: The Willoughbys

Best Cinematography
Judas and the Black Mesiah
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland

Spoiler: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Shocker: Tenet The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Costume Design
Emma
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Promising Young Woman

Spoiler: Ammonite
Shocker: Mulan, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Film Editing
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoiler: News of the World
Shocker: Promising Young Woman, Tenet

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

Spoiler: Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Shocker: Birds of Prey

Best Original Score
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Soul

Spoiler: Tenet
Shocker: Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Song
"Hear My Voice" (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
"Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
"Io Si (Seen)" (The Life Ahead)
"Never Break" (Giving Voice)
"Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)

Spoiler: "Turntables" (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
Shocker: “Rain Song” (Minari

Best Production Design
The Father
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
Tenet

Spoiler: Judas and the Black Messiah
Shocker: One Night in Miami

Best Sound
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Soul
Sound of Metal

Spoiler: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Shocker: Tenet

Best Visual Effects
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet

Spoiler: Birds of Prey
Shocker: The Invisible Man

Best Animated Short
If Anything Happens I Love You
Out
The Snail and the Whale
To Gerard
Yes-People

Spoiler: Kapaemahu


Best Documentary Short
Colette
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Hysterical Girl
A Love Song for Latasha
What Would Sophia Loren Do?

Spoiler: Do Not Split

Best Live-Action Short
Two Distant Strangers
Feeling Through
The Human Voice
The Letter Room
The Van

Spoiler: The Present

Does Borat win a Golden Globe in crazy 2021—yes. Here's how many

The Hollywood Foreign Press is an odd group with not one voter that overlaps with Oscars and votes on films all-over-the-place; Working Girl, Mrs. Doubtfire and The Hangover have actually won Best Motion Picture Comedy/Musical, and The Martian won despite not being a comedy or very good. 

Next year, I'll probably add that the Borat guy and his films won 3-5 awards in 2021. Most of the best performances this year are by people with many trophies on their shelf already — except Sacha Baron Cohen and Chadwick Boseman.

But rest easy, The Ten Buck Review has an 82% correct prediction rate that could help you win your awards pool (or at least look really darn smart during the telecast). Here's what's gonna happen:

Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Upset: Nomadland

Odds are 50/50 in Vegas on these two. The ability to award both with a Nomadland directing win gives an edge to the still relevant riot film.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Palm Springs
Music
The Prom

Winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Upset: Palm Springs

I can't believe it either, but it's the most likely outcome.

Best Director – Motion Picture

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Winner: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)

Upset: Anyone else. It's a top film of the year with a female director.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins,  The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank 
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

Winner: The late Chadwick Boseman

Upset: Anyone else.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman 
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Winner: Carey Mulligan

Upset: Anyone else.

This would be a closer race if Davis and McDormand didn't have a full awards shelf. And Mulligan kills it in Promising Young Woman.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy 

Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden, The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen 

Upset: Andy Samberg

Yes, we are living in crazy times.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson, Music
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

Winner: Maria Bakalova 

Upset: Anyone else

It's getting crazier. I don't think it's Michelle Pfeiffer's year to come back. Anya Taylor-Joy has a better chance for Queen's Gambit.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah 
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Bill Murray, On the Rocks 
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami 

Winner: Maria Bakalova 

Upset: Daniel Kaluuya

This is where Sacha may be the front runner who doesn't win. Kaluuya or Odom Jr. can take this one.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture 

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy 
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Helena Zengel, News of the World

Winner: Olivia Colman

Upset: Amanda Seyfried

Close may not have an Oscar, but she has Golden Globes so I disagree with Vegas. This is where either Mank or The Father finally win. Olivia will lose the TV actress award to her co-star who played Diana.

Best Original Score – Motion Picture 

The Midnight Sky, Alexandre Desplat 
Tenet, Ludwig Göransson 
News of the World, James Newton Howard 
Mank, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross 

Soul, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste 

Winner: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste for Soul

Upset: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Mank 

These guys are competing against themselves. Mank is edgier, but Soul has the edge.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

"Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah - H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas 
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 -  Daniel Pemberton, Celeste
“Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead  – Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi 
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami – Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth 
“Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holliday – Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq

Winner: "Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

Upset: Anyone else

This is where we award Leslie Odom Jr.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture 

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Jack Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Florian Zeller, Christopher Hampton, The Father
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Winner: Aaron Sorkin

Upset: Anyone else

I'm pretty sure they've already engraved this one.

Best Motion Picture – Animated
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers 

Winner: Soul

Upset: Anyone else

Sorry not sorry Wolfwalkers and gorgeous Over the Moon, this film almost made me cry.

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language 

Another Round

La Llorona

The Life Ahead
Minari
Two of Us

Winner: Minari

Upset: Another Round

The controversy over a foreign language film not being allowed to compete for Best Picture (same as last few years for Parasite and Roma), should put Minari on top.

It's been a crazy year. This show will add to that.