Fall Films and Oscar Contenders to put on your calendar, 2026

Here comes the fall quality movie season! Only twelve more Zendaya and Anne Hathaway films and two more Robert Pattison ones before we close out 2026. Just kidding. I think.

Spring and summer have already given us Oscar frontrunners in The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary, The Invite and Toy Story 5, plus a wild card in Obsession. But any true Oscarphile knows it’s a long journey, and the real contenders don’t come out to play until September through December. 

Right now, La Bola Negra looks like one of the strongest potential challengers to The Odyssey. Netflix is giving it a rare theatrical run and putting real money behind its awards campaign, which suggests they think they’ve got something more than a participation trophy on their hands.

Grab your fall calendar; here's a roundup of films to keep your eyes on as well as my early bold picks that you should probably put on your watchlist.

Way too early Best Picture nominee list predictions. In order of likelihood.

    1. The Odyssey (summer)

    2. La Bola Negra 

    3. Dune

    4. Wild Horse Nine

    5. Fjord

    6. All of a Sudden

    7. Project Hail Mary (spring)

    8. The Debut

    9. The Invite (summer)

    10. Digger

La Bola Negra

In a nutshell: The film most likely to put up a non-epic indie challenge to The Odyssey for Best Picture, assuming we get tired of Odyssey wins by March 2027. Across three periods of Spanish history, interconnected generations of queer men navigate desire, repression, pain, and inheritance in a story inspired by the legacy of Federico García Lorca — and Penélope Cruz.

Director: Javier Calvo & Javier Ambrossi (Los Javis)

Featuring: Penélope Cruz, Glenn Close, Miguel Bernardeau

Studio: Netflix

Festival: Cannes

October 16 (select theaters)

Wild Horse Nine 

In a nutshell: Expected to be one of the big five films in discussion (Including The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary, both not from the fall). Shortly before Chile’s 1973 coup, two CIA agents sent to Easter Island find their partnership tested by old secrets, political conspiracies and an unexpected connection with two rebellious students. Right now, this is one of the big three.

Director: Martin McDonagh (Banshees of Inisherin, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Featuring: Sam Rockwell, John Malkovich, Parker Posey, Steve Buscemi, Tom Waits

Festival: Venice, Telluride

Studio: Searchlight

November 6

Dune: Part Three

In a nutshell: Wrapping up the likely locks is the conclusion to the three-part epic, our hero confronts the devastating consequences of his rule as enemies conspire to overthrow his increasingly ruthless regime. Likely to earn as many as 12 nominations and perhaps, like The Lord of the Rings, be the final film of an epic three-parter that takes home a prize for them all. Or not.

Director: Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049, Dune, Sicario, Arrival)

Featuring: Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Robert Pattinson

Studio: Warner Bros.

Festival: None

Release: Dunesday, December 18

Fjord

In a nutshell: Not as assured as the first few, but in its favor, this is a well-reviewed, primarily English-language film. In addition to being Romania's Oscar submission, this could be our International film that breaks through. A deeply religious Romanian-Norwegian family living in a remote Norwegian community comes under investigation after their children show signs of possible abuse, setting off a conflict over faith, culture and parental authority. It has one thing others don't: the Palme d'Or.

Director: Cristian Mungiu (4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, Graduation)

Featuring: Sebastian Stan, Renate Reinsve

Studio: Neon

Festival: Cannes 

October 

All of a Sudden

In a nutshell: The manager of a Paris care facility and a terminally ill Japanese theater director form an unexpected bond through their shared determination to preserve dignity and human connection in the face of mortality. Efira and Okamoto jointly won Best Actress at Cannes. It's also Japan's Oscar submission for Best International Feature.

Director: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)

Featuring: Virginie Efira, Tao Okamoto, Kyozo Nagatsuka

Studio: Neon

Festival: Cannes

November 25

The Debut

In a nutshell: In his musical, a shy housewife cast in a tiny community-theater role becomes an obsessive method actor who goes to increasingly extreme lengths to defend her newfound artistic calling.

Director: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

Featuring: Julianne Moore, Paul Giamatti, Halle Bailey, Jesse Eisenberg

Studio: A24

Festival: Telluride

December 11 (likely)

Behemoth! 

In a nutshell: The film centers on Alex Serian, played by Pedro Pascal. Alex is a talented cellist who returns home to Los Angeles after spending twenty years traveling on the road. 

Director: Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton, The Bourne Legacy,)

Featuring: Pedro Pascal, Olivia Wilde, Eva Victor, Will Arnett

Studio: Searchlight

Festival: New York Film Festival, Centerpiece

December 4 (likely)

Ink

In a nutshell: In 1969 London, Rupert Murdoch takes control of The Sun and recruits an unconventional editor to transform the struggling newspaper into a provocative populist phenomenon.

Director: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire, Trainspotting, 127 Hours)

Featuring: Jack O'Connell, Guy Pearce

Festiveal: Venice

Studio: Nerflix

December 11 (limited)

Elsinore

In a nutshell: Chariots of Fire actor Ian Charleson battles AIDS while preparing what would become his acclaimed final performance as Hamlet at London’s National Theatre. And Olivia Colman.

Director: Simon Stone (The Dig)

Featuring: Andrew Scott (Pressure), Olivia Colman 

Studio: Focus Features

Festival: Telluride, TIFF, London Film Festival opening night

November 20,  Thanksgiving wide

Paper Tiger

In a nutshell: In 1986 Queens, two very different brothers become entangled in a shady scheme involving the Russian mafia, putting their family, their integrity and their relationship at risk.

Director: James Gray (Ad Astra, The Lost City of Z, Armageddon Time)

Featuring: Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Miles Teller

Studio: Neon

Festival: Cannes, New York Film Festival, Opening Night

November 13

Digger

In a nutshell: The world’s most powerful man desperately tries to convince humanity that he can save it from the very catastrophe he helped create.

Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman, The Revenant, Babel)

Featuring: Tom Cruise, Riz Ahmed and John Goodman

Studio: Warner Bros.

Festival: None, but the CinemaCon preso and Tom Cruise push is underway positioning Cruise's performance as a career culmination

October 2

The Social Reckoning

In a nutshell: In the sequel to The Social Network (2010), a Facebook engineer joins forces with a Wall Street Journal reporter to expose the company's closely guarded secrets, igniting a reckoning over the social network’s impact on society.

Director: Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game, The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Featuring: Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg, Mikey Madison, Jeremy Allen White

Studio: Sony

Festival: None

October 9

Sense and Sensibility

In a nutshell: Despite Ang Lee creating a perfect movie with Emma Thompson and Kate Winslet, here we go again. Jane Austen's classic. After their father's death leaves their family financially displaced, sisters Elinor and Marianne Dashwood navigate love, heartbreak and social expectations. Oopsie, Daisy.

Director: Georgia Oakley (Blue Jean)

Featuring: Daisy Edgar-Jones, Esmé Creed-Miles, Caitríona Balfe, George MacKay, Fiona Shaw

Studio: Focus

Festival: none

October 16

Club Kid

In a nutshell: A hard-partying New York club promoter is forced to reconsider his chaotic lifestyle when the 10-year-old son he never knew existed suddenly enters his life

Director: Jordan Firstman

Featuring: Jordan Firstman, Diego Calva, Cara Delevingne

Studio: A24

Festival: Cannes

November 6 (limited)

Artificial

In a nutshell: The wild cards start here. This one by Luca Guadagnino. A darkly comic dramatization of the 2023 OpenAI crisis that saw CEO Sam Altman abruptly fired by the company's board, only to return days later after a chaotic power struggle.

Director: Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name, Challengers)

Featuring: Andrew Garfield as Sam Altman, Ike Barinholtz as Elon Musk, Monica Barbaro, Yura Boriso 

Studio: Neon. Amazon MGM originally made the film but dropped it in June; Neon subsequently acquired it for distribution.

Festival: None announced yet

Release: TBD, expected 2026.

I Play Rocky

In a nutshell: Not a joke, gonna fly now. Farrelly is looking for his second Best Picture winner with a film about a Best Picture nominee. A little-known Sylvester Stallone risks everything to star in the screenplay he refuses to sell without himself in the lead, leading to the unlikely creation of Rocky. Adrian!

Director: Peter Farrelly (Green Book, There’s Something About Mary)

Featuring: Anthony Ippolito as Sylvester Stallone, Matt Dillon

Studio: Amazon

Festival: Hamptons International Film Festival

November 6, November 20 wide

Clarissa

In a nutshell: In a contemporary Lagos reimagining of Virginia Woolf's Mrs Dalloway, a society hostess preparing for a party reconnects with people from her youth, stirring memories of love, desire and roads not taken.

Director:Arie Esiri & Chuko Esiri (Eyimofe)

Featuring: Sophie Okonedo, David Oyelowo, Ayo Edebiri, India Amarteifio

Studio: Neon

Festival: Cannes

Release Month: December

Primetime

In a nutshell: Inspired by the rise of To Catch a Predator, a television journalist builds a sensational hidden-camera crime series that blurs the boundaries between journalism, entertainment and exploitation. I think Pattinson is overhyped as film talent; this may not work.

Director: Lance Oppenheim (Some Kind of Heaven)

Featuring: Robert Pattinson, Phoebe Bridgers

Studio: A24

Festival: Venice

September 25

Tender Loving Care

In a nutshell: Mike Leigh returns with an intimate ensemble drama examining family relationships, ordinary lives, and the complicated ways people attempt to care for one another.

Director: Mike Leigh (Secrets & Lies, Vera Drake, Topsy-Turvy)

Featuring:  Kate O'Flynn, Marion Bailey, Brid Brennan

Studio: Bleecker Street

Festival: Telluride

December 4 (likely)

Wildwood

In a nutshell: Wildwood is a wild card. It's animated.Based on the novel by Colin Meloy, the story follows a young girl named Prue who enters a hidden, magical forest outside of Portland to rescue her kidnapped baby brother.

Director: Travis Knight

Studio: Bleecker Street

Festival: BFI London Film Festival  

October 23

Werewulf

In a nutshell: The Frankenstein of this year. An Eggers period horror film has obvious potential in cinematography, production design, costumes, makeup and sound.

Director: Robert Eggers (The Witch, The Lighthouse, The Northman, Nosferatu)

Featuring: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Lily-Rose Depp, Willem Dafoe

Studio: Focus Features

Festival: None announced

December 25

Disclosure Day

What do I believe? Well before seeing Disclosure Day, I had three thoughts: Steven Spielberg knows how to make audiences lean forward better than anyone, John Williams remains one of cinema's greatest secret weapons and alien movies rarely stick the landing. 

After seeing it, I still believe all three.

Disclosure Day is a fun, crowd-pleasing summer movie that kept me leaning forward from start to finish. The first half plays like a political thriller before shifting into classic Spielberg sci-fi spectacle. If you're expecting a late-life director bookend to Close Encounters or E.T., you may walk away wanting more. I certainly did. But judged on its own terms, it's a wild ride with a dream cast led by Emily Blunt and Josh O'Connor, with Colin Firth and Colman Domingo.

The film is unmistakably Spielbergian. From the opening chase to the final reveal, every shot is designed for maximum impact. Spielberg brings a sense of wonder and spirituality to the story, pitting believers, skeptics and the fearful against one another as humanity inches toward revelation. A spectacular train sequence is worth the price of admission alone.

Not everything works. A major plot point involving a traditional news broadcast feels oddly dated in a world where a viral video would spread faster and farther. The story also takes a detour into alien-given superpowers that feels more like a weak Marvel magic stick subplot than thoughtful science fiction. It undercuts some of the mystery and realism that make the film's best moments so effective. A few dodgy CGI animals and some implausible escapes don't help either.

Listen, my biggest issue is probably unfair: I wanted more. Not a better movie, but a deeper one. Spielberg delivers a highly entertaining blockbuster, yet never quite finds a fresh angle on the alien-contact story.

Still, this is peak filmmaking craft from one of cinema's masters. It may not break new ground, but it's exciting, polished and immensely watchable. Go enjoy it!

In a nutshell: I believe in... Spielberg. Not groundbreaking, but one of the summer's most enjoyable trips to the movies.

Where to watch: Exclusively in theaters.

Would it be better with Olivia Colman? This one needs her less than most, but yes, of course.

Awards potential: John Williams' magnificent score is the standout and will be the film's strongest awards contender. Sound has an outside shot, and Emily Blunt leaves a strong impression, but maybe not enough for the Academy to remember a summer action film come January.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Masters of the Universe

The good news: with a reported budget somewhere between $170 million and $200 million, this is almost certainly the most assured flop of the year — and Mattel's Barbi-boosted plan to turn every toy in the closet into a cinematic universe will likely get a long timeout.

The other good news? For fans, Masters of the Universe is much better than it has any right to be.

Decades after the cartoon and toys ruled playgrounds, and nearly 40 years after the infamous Dolph Lundgren movie, returning to Castle Grayskull feels like a strange idea. I saw this in a preview setting, with half the room full of critics and half full of rabid fans. Both were pleasantly surprised by the film, having previously seen only the trailer, which did not reveal its silly love for the 80s, vibrant colors, a Queen nod to its stylistic cousin, Flash Gordon, and some comic bits that land.

The smartest decision is making Prince Adam an ordinary guy stuck in a dead-end desk job on Earth before he's pulled back to Eternia. Had the movie started with a blonde dude named He-Man (Nicholas Galitzine) wandering a fantasy kingdom in a loincloth, it would have been a much harder sell.

The film understands the movie's balancing act between sincere fan service and a knowing wink at how ridiculous all of this is. The production design is gloriously colorful, the action has got the power, and there are plenty of jokes about names like Fisto and Mekaneck that somehow feel affectionate rather than mocking. My favorite scene comes when Adam reveals he originally named many of the heroes as a kid, drawing them from memory. It's a clever way to honor the toys while absolutely poking fun at them.

Jared Leto spends much of the film unrecognizable behind Skeletor's face, while Idris Elba brings more gravitas to Man-At-Arms than the material probably deserves. I don't see franchise potential here, and I certainly wouldn't hold my breath for a He-Man and She-Ra sequel. But as a standalone summer movie, it's surprisingly watchable.

In a nutshell: Delightfully silly. Completely unnecessary. Made for the fans.If you're coming in with no connection to these characters, there's not enough here to win you over.

Where to see it: In theaters starting June 5, 2026.

Would it be better with Olivia Colman? Absolutely. She would've been delightful as Roboto. Kristen Wiig does just fine, but still.

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth Ten Bucks for most. If you have a soft spot for these toys, this delivers more fun than expected.

Summer of 2026 movie guide

After a spring that gave us successes like Project Hail Mary, the Michael Jackson smash and The Devil Wears Prada 2, 2026 is already shaping up to be a huge movie year. Now, summer begins, and I don't think there's a film this season that doesn't feature either Anne Hathaway (five films), Zendaya (four) or Tom Holland (the star of the summer's two biggest releases) — or, in some cases, all three. 

The funniest movie of the year may be Scary Movie, the scariest film may be Obsession and with the same faces popping up everywhere, it's not looking easy to keep the movies straight, let alone figure out which ones are actually worth seeing.

No worries, here's your handy dandy summer film roundup so you can mark your calendars.

 1. Spielberg and Nolan

Disclosure Day — June 12, 2026
Spielberg is back for another encounter where humanity confronts proof of extraterrestrial life in a large-scale science fiction event film. Fingers crossed.
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actors: Emily Blunt, Colman Domingo, Josh O'Connor

The Odyssey — July 17, 2026
Christopher Nolan adapts Homer's epic tale of Odysseus's long journey home after the Trojan War. Expectations are high despite a literally dark trailer.
Director: Christopher Nolan
Actors: Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, John Leguizamo, Lupita Nyong'o, Robert Pattinson

2. IPs and Franchises

Spider-Man: Brand New Day — July 31, 2026
They're back! Peter Parker begins a new chapter in the Marvel Cinematic Universe following the events of No Way Home. Likely contender for biggest film of the summer and year.
Director: Destin Daniel Cretton
Actors: Tom Holland, Zendaya

Toy Story 5 — June 19, 2026
They're back! Woody, Buzz and the gang return for Pixar's latest installment in its flagship animated franchise. They have a good concept this time. And Taylor Swift.
Director: Andrew Stanton
Actors: Tom Hanks, Tim Allen

The Mandalorian and Grogu - In theaters now

They're back! The Star Wars TV show becomes a film no one asked for with Din Djarin and Grogu embarking on a new mission. 
Director: Jon Favreau
Actors: Pedro Pascal, Sigourney Weaver, Jeremy Allen White

Minions & Monsters — July 1, 2026
They're back! A new family animated adventure from Universal featuring an ensemble of colorful characters.

Moana — July 10, 2026
They're back! Disney reimagines its animated hit in live action.
Director: Thomas Kail
Actors: Dwayne Johnson, Catherine Laga'aia

Supergirl — June 26, 2026
Fresh from last summer's Superman, Kara Zor-El and Krypto take center stage in a key swing from DC Studios' cinematic universe. Based on the trailer, it looks like a lot of CGI, things blowing up, and about a thousand moments of Kara reminding you she's a badass, not Helen Slater.
Director: Craig Gillespie
Actors: Milly Alcock, Jason Momoa

Masters of the Universe — June 5, 2026
Did the toys come first or the cartoon show, and did we really care that much about He-Man? The high-dollar film that looks most likely to be the major bust of the summer is getting buzz about its fun take on 1980s nostalgia and lighthearted fun. I'm not sure that I believe all that, but I'll see a sneak preview Monday and share the word.
Director: Travis Knight
Actors: Nicholas Galitzine, Alison Brie, Camila Mendes

3. Comedies

Scary Movie — June 5, 2026
The long-running spoof franchise returns with a new send-up of modern horror and pop culture. Given the past years, this looks to be a gem in the franchise and a big hit.

Actors: Damon Wayans Jr, Heidi Gardner

Power Ballad — June 5, 2026
John Carney's (Once, Sing Street) wheelhouse goes mainstream. A music-driven comedy-drama set in Dublin that explores the transformative power of song — and has a great one too.

Director: John Carney 
Actors: Paul Rudd, Nick Jonas

The Breadwinner — In theaters now

With a Nate Rate price and a good-lookin' comedian in his comedic prime, we get a contemporary version of Mr. Mom. I'd see a full film about his George Washington, but not sure about this familiar fluff for me, and family films are more of a streaming thing. We'll see how this does with special pricing and sheer star power.

Actors:  Nate Bargatze, Will Forte

The Invite — June 26, 2026
A married couple's dinner with their adventurous neighbors spirals into an increasingly chaotic and uncomfortable night.
Director: Olivia Wilde
Actors: Seth Rogen, Penélope Cruz, Edward Norton, Olivia Wilde

One Night Only — August 7, 2026
In a world where sex is legal for only one day each year, two strangers meet and spark an unexpected romance.
Director: Will Gluck
Actors: Monica Barbaro, Callum Turner, Molly Ringwald

4. Alternates 

The Death of Robin Hood — June 19, 2026
An aging and battle-worn Robin Hood confronts his legacy in a darker take on the legendary outlaw. Perfect setup for Wolverine to make an Oscar push.
Director: Michael Sarnoski
Actors: Hugh Jackman

Tony — August 7, 2026
A young Anthony Bourdain comes of age while working in the chaotic restaurant kitchens of Provincetown.
Director: Matt Johnson
Actors: Dominic Sessa, Antonio Banderas, Leo Woodall, Emilia Jones

5. Thrillers

The End of Oak Street — August 14, 2026

Every month, a new Anne Hathaway movie, scary! A suburban family finds their neighborhood mysteriously transported into an unknown realm.
Director: David Robert Mitchell
Actors: Anne Hathaway, Ewan McGregor, Maisy Stella

The Dog Stars — August 28, 2026
In a post-pandemic world, a survivor searches for hope amid the ruins of civilization.
Director: Ridley Scott
Actors: Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, Guy Pearce,  Allison Janney

6. Scary Films, Horror

Obsession — In theaters now
A micro-budget horror film becomes a breakout commercial phenomenon and one of the year's surprise hits.
Director: Curry Barker

Backrooms — In theaters now
An adaptation of the viral internet horror phenomenon follows characters trapped in a terrifying labyrinth of endless spaces.
Director: Kane Parsons
Actors: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Renate Reinsve, Mark Duplass

Leviticus — June 19, 2026
Neon grabbed this at Sundance last year, despite being or because it is a supernatural horror film. It must be scary good.

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma — August 7, 2026
A queer horror story from Cannes that follows a group of young people at a summer camp with deadly secrets.
Director: Jane Schoenbrun
Actors: Hannah Einbinder, Gillian Anderson

Power Ballad

I have a built-in expectation with any new John Carney movie. He's the force behind Once and Sing Street. This latest movie about musicians in Ireland, Power Ballad, doesn’t quite reach those high notes of his best films, but it’s also not really trying to. Instead, Carney leans into something lighter, broader, and way more crowd-pleasing. Think summer pop hit instead of indie folk anthem.

Paul Rudd (Ant-Man, Clueless) plays Rick Power, a musician who almost made it big and now fronts “Ireland’s grooviest wedding band.” He’s settled into family life, still chasing that feeling of being on stage. Enter Danny Wilson (Nick Jonas), a former boy-band star stuck in career limbo, watching his old bandmates have their Harry Styles moments.

The movie really starts to hum once the two start writing music together. Carney still knows how to make collaboration feel exciting and alive. Watching Rudd and Jonas bounce ideas off each other over whiskey and late-night jam sessions is one of the best parts of the film. For a second, it almost feels like the start of some legendary songwriting duo. Then the movie swerves hard into its rom-com place and overly-written hijinks ensue.

Power Ballad plays more like a ‘90s hit comedy than classic Carney. It’s closer in spirit to The Wedding Singer than the rougher edges of Once. At times, this feels more like really solid streaming content than must-see theater material. But I’m pretty forgiving when a movie this charming drops in the middle of summer. Rudd carries the whole thing with effortless warmth, the song is catchy, and Carney still has a gift for turning music performances into movie magic.

In a nutshell: It’s not operating on the same level as Once or Sing Street, but Power Ballad absolutely works as a feel-good summer movie and Carney’s most accessible film yet.

Where to see it: In select cities and theaters starting May 29, 2026 with a wide release on June 5, 2026.

Would it be better with Olivia Colman? I'd have loved to see her in this. She would have provided some of the edge this needs.

Award potential: “How to Write a Song (Without You)” isn’t touching “Falling Slowly” territory, but it’s a legitimately great pop song in the same lane as “Golden” and could easily end up on plenty of nomination long lists.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Sinners vs One Battle After Another — Win your Oscars pool with stats

There's been one award show after another and with a wild mix of winners, there's a lot to be excited for on Oscar Night. With all the moving targets, we’ll need some mathy math to help you win your office pool. Let's start with an easy one.

Win the Best Director category

Go with whoever won the Directors Guild of America award (DGA). Those winners have matched in 66 of 77 years, including last year's winner Sean Baker (Anora). The Oscar goes to Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another).

Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category

Hamnet doth make the most sense here, but the Writers Guild (WGA) chose One Battle and the USC Scripter Awards, which have accurately predicted this category for 12 of the last 16 years, also chose One Battle After Another. You should too.

Win the Best Original Screenplay category

BAFTA awarded Sinners and the Writers Guild (WGA), the closest guide for OG screenplay any given year, also chose Sinners. We have a winner and it rhymes with "winners."

Win the Best Editing category

Throughout history, the winner of Best Editing has always had a Best Sound nomination as well. That leaves Sinners, One Battle and F1. F1 has its editing fans and the One Battle and Sinners each won an ACE editing award this year in different categories, but only one BAFTA winner nominated in this category has lost the Oscar since 2018. One Battle for the win.

Win the Best Cinematography category

Sinners' Arkapaw could be the first woman ever to earn a cinematography Oscar. She used 70-mm IMAX cameras and alternating aspect ratios throughout the film. One Battle's Bauman shot on VistaVision, another rare format. And then there is Train Dreams.

I don't blame you for voting for any of those three. A vote for history? A vote for VistaVision? A vote to throw one award to cinematic beauty Train Dreams? But the stats show a different story.

BAFTA (60% record at matching) chose One Battle After Another. The American Society of Cinematographers (75% correct at matching) named One Battle After Another lenser Michael Bauman, too. 

Win the Best Animated Feature Film category

Go with the math. 12 out of 19 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award. K-Pop Demon Hunters should be golden.

Win the Best Music (Original Score) category

"Epic" films usually win here. The Golden Globes are your most reliable here, matching about 55 to 65% in the modern era. When the winner is also a Best Picture contender, its Oscar chances jump dramatically. This year, chose Ludwig Goransson's score for Sinners, just like the BAFTA and Globes did.

Win the Best Visual Effects category

Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to win the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 13 of the past 23 years. It's the one you would choose anyway, Avatar Fire and Ash.

Win the Best International Feature Film category

In five of the past six years, one of the nominees was also nominated for Best Picture — that's the usual winner. But, this year there are two: Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. 

The BAFTA Award for Best Film Not in the English Language went to Sentimental Value, a category that aligns with the eventual Oscar winner about 70% of the time. That track record makes it a stronger indicator than the Golden Globes, which selected The Secret Agent. With that mathy math in mind, the safer choice is Sentimental Value, especially after it secured a whopping nine Oscar nominations.

Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories

This year is wild with BAFTAs, SAG, Globes and Critics Choice choosing different actors in every race except Best Actress, Jessie Buckley of Hamnet. Like any year, your best bet is to go with the four SAG winners every year, and you will get 3/4 correct. I have no idea which three

Win the Best Sound category
The “Oscar sound trifecta” is where MPSE + BAFTA + CAS Sound all match. When that happens the Oscar prediction rate is over 95%.

BAFTA awarded F1. The Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) awarded Sinners, Frankenstein and Sirat, while the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Sound Mixing Award winner was F1. 

Well, to be specific, 95% of the CAS voters who determine the winner of the Best Sound Oscar are not members of the sound community at all, so I always say "vote for the loudest." F1 wins the race.

Win the Best Music (Original Song) category

There are no solid stats in this category except that Diane Warren never wins. It will likely be 17 losses after this one. Now, if it's also the biggest pop hit of the past year, you have a solid frontrunner. Go with "Golden" from K-Pop Demon Hunters.

Win the Best Production Design category

This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (just four times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of the Art Director's Guild Award (AGA), which chose Frankenstein and One Battle After Another is separate categories. BAFTA chose Frankenstein, which seems the most alive here.

Win the Best Costume Design category

Frankenstein (Period ) and One Battle After Another (Contemporary) took the top film prizes at the Costume Designer Guild Awards. Over the last ten years, the Oscar winner has most often come from the Period category, Sci-Fi is second, and Contemporary is always the least likely to win. BAFTA, which resembles the Academy more than the Costume Guild, went with Frankenstein, and you should too.

Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category

The MUAHS recognized One Battle for Best Contemporary and Sinners for Best Period/Character. Period almost always wins. 

Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)

There is no reliable math here, the DGA all over the place and the PGA winner is not even nominated here. Social urgency always helps, which touches all of these, especially The Alabama Solution. The Perfect Neighbor, on Netflix, is the most widely seen one, and it won at the Critics' Choice, the American Cinema Editors and Film Independent Spirit awards. Mr Nobody Against Putin won BAFTA. 

Win the Best Animated Short, Best Live Action and Documentary Short categories.

There's no math here but i always say, "the ones with great names win more often than not" and it's helped me many years.  I have my favorites this year, but I will offer you the Vegas odds. All The Empty Rooms (doc short), Two People Exchanging Saliva (live action) and Butterly (animated) edge out The Girl Who Cried Pearls in Vegas.

Win the Best Casting category. 

This is a new category this year so there is no history to look to. Like most races its between two movies and two legends in their fields to win the first ever Oscar for casting: Cassandra Kulukundis (One Battle) and Francine Maisler (Sinners). The Critics Choice chose Sinners, and BAFTA chose I Swear, not eligible here. SAG chose Sinners for best ensemble, similar in some ways, so it's got an edge over the mega stars of One Battle.

Win the show’s running-time tiebreake

In 2002, the show ran for four hours and 23 minutes. It's been trending down ever since, but there is one extra award to hand out this year. 
Here are the timings for the past ten years:

2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes

2021: 3 hours, 19 minutes

2022: 3 hours, 40 minutes

2023: 3 hours, 37 minutes

2024: 3 hours, 23 minutes

2025: 3 hours, 50 minutes.

Win the Best Picture category

One Battle After Another won BAFTA and Critics Choice. 

The Palme d’Or winner was It Was Just an Accident. 

The Globes split between One Battle After Another (comedy) and Hamlet (drama).

Best Ensemble at SAG went to Sinners.

Sinners has all the momentum after SAG.

No film in history that has won at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, ACE, DGA, PGA and WGA with at least one SAG prize has ever lost best picture, boding well for One Battle After Another.

However, Sinners holds the ACE, SAG ensemble and WGA, and no film has lost with that powerful combination either.

Whatever to all that. The PGA is the only one with a preferential voting ballot like the Oscars, and chose One Battle After Another. The PGA has a consistent record with picking winners, and has only been wrong two times in the last nine years—when it chose 1917 over Parasite and La La Land over Moonlight.

Good luck with your Oscars pool, everyone!