Win your Oscars office pool with this stat-tastic hack

Win your Oscars pool with this stat-tastic help

It's another unique year for Oscars so we’re gonna need some math to help your Oscar office pool. Here's how to win:

Win the Best Director category
Go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched in 62 of 73 years. It can't hurt that the DGA chose a female director of a Best Picture nominee this year. And it's her finest, most evolved work. And the Oscar goes to... Jane Campion, Power of the Dog.

Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category
Flee is also nominated in Documentary and Animated Feature, And Worst Person in the World is extremely liable, but only one of them is also nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. And the Oscar goes to... Drive My Car.

Win the Best Animated Feature Film category
11 out of 15 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award. it can't hurt that you've heard one of its songs every day of 2022. And the Oscar goes to... Encanto.

Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories
Supporting is a lock. Will late surges for Andrew Garfield and Penelope Cruz cause an upset for actor and actress? It may happen, but your best bet for your money, however, is SAG. The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. Their picks align with Oscar more than any other. This means Will Smith, Jessica Chastain, Troy Kotsure and Ariana DeBose should polish their speeches now.

Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category
The respected Writers Guild (WGA) chose CODA as did Britain's BAFTA. The USC Scripter Awards, which has accurately predicted this category for 9 of the last 12 years, chose The Lost Daughter, written by Hollywood's well-loved Maggie Gyllenhaal. In a tight three-way race, with Power of the Dog included too, the Oscar is most likely to go to... CODA.

Win the Best Original Screenplay category
The winner category most often parallels the WGA’s winner, which was Don't Look Up, a famously improved film headscratcher. BAFTA chose the brilliant Licorice Pizza, surprisingly over home-court advantage Branagh's Belfast. Does this show a lack of support for Belfast which peaked in December? Or is everyone waiting to award Branagh at the big show? I hope but the math says it's either Don't Look Up (not Adam McCay's best) or Licorice Pizza. The Oscar goes to... Licorice Pizza.

Win the Best Music (Original Song) category
There’s not a lot of math for this category, just remember that all members (not just musicians) vote in this category. Do they want to see Lin Manuel-Miranda get his EGOT or see youthful Billie Eilish and Finneas on stage the same night as the 007 tribute? Either way, a win for audiences. And the Oscar goes to No Time To Die.

Win the Best Music (Original Score) category
This race is most likely between Hans Zimmer's inventive masterpiece for Dune and Johhny Greenwood's (Radiohead) nightmarish compositions for the psychological western, The Power of the Dog. This award most often aligns with the BAFTA Award for Best Film Music, which honored the ambitious Dune score. Zimmer has been nominated 12 times with one win for The Lion King and during voting week, his work was played memorably by a Ukrainian on a piano in the midst of chaos ... and the Oscar goes to Hans.

Win the Best Sound category
Sound Editing has always gone to the loudest, ear-ringing war film or action film and Sound Mixing rewarded the most euphonic sound mixing and would often award craft details in movies such as Whiplash. Last year, for the first time ever, the two awards were combined and rewarded Sound of Metal. The math is fresh. Let's go with CAS Sound Mixing Award-winner, and loud ear-ringing action war film, Dune.

Win the Best Editing category
This is the most unpredictable award of the night. The EDDIE Awards rewarded King Richard. West Side Story took Critics Choice Award. Tick Tick Boom, Power of Dog and Dune all got an ACE. Plus, No Time To Die won BAFTA, in Britain of course. Editors seem to love Tick Tick Boom for technical reasons, but post-nomination, editors plus everyone votes.

I'll rule out all but Power of the Dog, No Time to Die and Dune. Throughout history, this award always has a Sound nomination, as these do. Do long, sequel films have a disadvantage here? Surely voters are tired of checking Dune for everything. You'll have to pick this one on your own. I'll roll the dice for Power of the Dog.

Win the Best Cinematography category
The cinematographer's award (ASC) is a good one to watch — it chose Dune. The Academy membership is broader than ASC's cinematography crowd. It's a little more like The British Film Academy Film Awards (BAFTA). They also chose Dune. The Oscar goes to... Dune.

Win the Best Production Design category
This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (Just 4 times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award. The AGAs went to Nightmare Alley (Period film), Dune (Fantasy film) and No Time to Die (Contemporary film). And the Oscar goes to... Dune.

Win the Best Visual Effects category
Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 10 of the 19 years. The Oscar goes to its winner, Dune.

Win the Best Costume Design category
I can narrow it to two. Fashion fantasy Cruella and Dune each won at the Costume Designer Guild Awards. 

Period pieces (Emma) almost always beat fantasy (Pinocchio) ones. But is Dune, 20,000 years into our future, fantasy or period piece? The math leans to the film with a Best Picture nomination, Dune. The gut leads to the film that is all about fashion, Cruella.

Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category

After the MUAHS Awards, the race is wide open with Cruella and Coming To America winning over front-runners The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Dune. During nomination week,  Jessica Chastain took a stand in the debate over not broadcasting this category that I believe will push that makeup-focused film to the top of the four. The Oscar goes to... The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)
Despite the innovations of Flee, it's important to know that all Academy members vote on this award, not just the doc category. Amy, Searching for Sugar Man and 20 Feet from Stardom were all accessible, music-filled docs that recently took the top prize. Few were loved as much as Questlove-directed Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised), which has won the BAFTA, the Critics Choice Documentary Award and the Independent Spirit Award. And the Oscar goes to Summer of Soul.

Win the Best Animated Short Film category
Go with either the holiday miracle story of Robin Robin or The Windshield Wiper, where a chain smoker asks "What is love"?

Win the Best Documentary Short category
Go with heralded Queen of Basketball, showcasing Lucy Harris Steward who scored the first basket in women's Olympic history in 1976 and was the first and only woman drafted into the NBA.

Win the Best Live Action Short Film category
Go with The Long Goodbye, produced and starring past Oscar nominee Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal, Flee). The Short Film showcases a British-Pakistani family preparing its home for a wedding celebration until a right-wing march sparks chaos. Check it out; free on YouTube.

Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.
In 2002, the show ran for four hours and 23 minutes. It's been trending down ever since.  

Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes

2021: 3 hours, 19 minutes

Tiebreaker question: Which film will win the most awards?
Dune is on track to win 5-7 awards.

Win the Best Picture category

A new two-horse race has evolved. It's Netflix vs. Amazon. CODA has replaced Belfast in the feel-good position against the feel-no-so-good The Power of the Dog. Both have screenplay nominations. 

The case for The Power of the Dog:

• It won best picture at BAFTA, Golden Globes and the DGA. It also won at The Critics Choice  (70% alignment with Oscars). 
• The season long-favorite is the only of the two with an editing nomination, a historical must that has been challenged only in recent years.
• CODA is more glorified Hallmark movie than inventive cinema.
• The Academy is more international than ever, and this film plays much better to that crowd
• Netflix is more seasoned at promoting films than Amazon
• In the complete history of the Academy Awards, no film has won Best Picture without a nomination for either directing or editing, ever. CODA does not have these. But... 

The case for CODA:

• For 10 of the last 13 years, the Producers Guild’s choice for Best Picture went on to claim the top prize at the Oscars. They chose CODA.
• CODA took the best ensemble award at SAG as well.
• The Academy finally has a popular but respected film that could shine over prestigous, crafted artful fare.
• Viewers, the Academy (and the world) would love to see that diverse cast on stage at the Oscars in a historic moment. I haven't heard any news, but sure the producers will stage a performance of Both Sides Now complete with deaf interpreters. If they don't, I should product next year.

Most importantly, math. 

Since 2009, the ranked voting system has been in play for just this one category. Rather than voting for only one movie, voters choose their preferences in order, from the first choice to last. If no candidate or movie wins an outright majority, a runoff occurs. The least popular is eliminated, and any voter who chose that option for the first place is reassigned to their second choice option instead. This process repeats itself until one movie wins. With this methodology, a "perfectly fine" movie can win over a "cinephile best" narrow thematic that is heralded by many yet unliked by some. Power of the Dog may be the most respected, crafted film of the year but many didn't connect. I wouldn't bet money against CODA. 

And the big finish of the night goes to... CODA.

Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!

The Worst Person in the World

Norwegian writer-director Joachim Trier (Thelma) perfectly casts Reate Reinsve (Oslo) as Oslo medical student Julie, a magnificent mess who changes career plans too often in her early twenties and may just have similar problems with relationships. Also, perfectly cast are her men— a Robert Crum-style comic-book artist Aksel (Anders Danielson Lie) and Eivind (Herber Nordrum) a married stranger she meets at a party.

If you haven't guessed already, it's a dramatic comedy about a woman on the verge of figuring out who she is. She's unlikely "the worst person in the world" nor is she the "nicest." One thing I can reveal is that she is "funny" in a way we haven't seen since Fleabag.

The whole film is pretty likable too. it delights and generates some solid, rootin-'tootin'  laugh-out moments. Until a third arc conversation between Julie and Aksel that delivers a gut-punch about the artifacts of youth. Wowza. I'll never forget that dialogue.

The Worst Person in the World may be about a young twentysomething woman but to me, it plays more like recent comfortable coming-of-middle-age films such as Gloria (2013), Gloria Bell (2018) combined with TV's Fleabag or Catastrophe. This is the third film in the Norwegian director's Oslo Trilogy. However, it stands alone and is one of the best films of 2021.

In a nutshell: Funny, bittersweet and poignant, Worst Person is a very likable film.

Award potential: The Cannes winner is nominated for Best Internation Feature Film at the Oscars.

Where to watch: Currently on VOD

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks

The Batman (2022)

The Batman has the unenviable task of finding something new to offer onscreen following Tim Burton's genre-changing films, Joel Schumacher's bright and comedic crowdpleasers, Chris Nolan's dark and heralded Dark Knight trio, and the most recent Batfleck films that hinted that there is nowhere else to go with Batman. Not to mention a Lego Batman and the camp-tastic 1960s TV and movie series.

What the new, The Batman (2022) got right was finding a new lane for Batman that works — returning Batman to his "Detective" sleuthing days in a psychological thriller more in line with Seven (1995) and True Detective (2014) than Zack Snyder's Justice League (2017, 2021). The car is cool too.

What The Batman got wrong is not stopping after the first two hours. If the film had ended at 2 hours and 7-minutes like Seven, we'd have a film worthy of your ten bucks. That Fincher film introduced us to entirely new characters, unlike the familiar Waynes, Catwoman, Penguin and Riddler, made us care about them and took us on a rollercoaster ride that didn't need coffee to sit through. Director Matt Reeves (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Cloverfield) falls into the superhero universe trap that everything needs to be bigger, louder and earth-changing by the end. The last hour is mostly unwatchable.

Yes, Robert Pattison's jawline looks great and Zoey Kravitz looks purrfect in the iconic suit, yet somehow, even with the long-running time, we never get under the masks of any of these characters to know them or root for them. I'm sure they'll get to try again.

In a nutshell: They got so close you could see how a similar film could have worked. A smaller scope would have made The Batman a bigger treat. P.S. Not for kids.

Award Potential: None. Cinematographer Greig Fraser is likely a winner this year for his work on Dune.

Where to watch: In theaters.

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth ten bucks.

The 7 Films To Stream Before Oscar Night

 

 Whether you still love the actual show or not, the Oscars always provide us with a solid list of the year’s best films. However, it’s a lonnnng list given that it is three weeks until the show. 

No worry. Here are the top seven films you need to see before the show to be in the know, have a favorite to root for, and have an opinion on all of the drama… and comedy.

CODA
The Best Picture race is narrowing to three films — CODA, Belfast and Power of the Dog. But only this one is gaining momentum as voters envision the multiple deaf actors on stage for a historical moment of diversity. Another reason it’s a must-watch? Troy Kotsure will win Supporting Actor. One more? It’s the feel-good film of the year.
Where to watch: Apple+

THE POWER OF THE DOG
It may be the feel-not-so-good film of the year, but its artistic craft will take home Best Director, Adapted Screenplay and Score. It could very likely win Best Picture and other Oscars.
Where to watch: Netflix

BELFAST
My favorite film of the year held a top spot for Best Picture against Power of the Dog until CODA took its place in the feel-good position. It will take home Original Screenplay at the very least and is up for a total of 7 Oscars.
Where to watch: VOD, Theaters

DUNE
It would be a spicy little surprise if it took Best Picture but shouldn’t be. It’s on track to win, yes win, all 7 top technical awards: Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects. Any film with 7 technical wins could surprise as Best Picture in a year without a frontrunner.
Where to watch: HBOMax

FLEE
A contender for Animated Feature, Documentary and International Feature, which is quite a feat. Flee has already made history and is one to watch before Oscars Night.
Where to watch: Hulu

ENCANTO
Unless Flee pulls off an upset that even Bruno won’t talk about, this film will win Best Animated Feature. If its song upsets Billie Eilish’s 007 crooner, Lin Manuel Miranda will enter the EGOT club with an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar and Tony — it would be a fun moment on the show.
Where to watch: Disney+

DRIVE MY CAR
Nominated for Best Picture and Director, this Japanese Film is a frontrunner to win another big one — Best International Feature. It's a 3-hour ride — consider watching it as a 3-part series. It's worth it.
Where to watch: HBOMax

SUMMER OF SOUL
It’s unclear if Flee will split its love across categories and go home empty or sweep them all. The most likely scenario is that this well-loved film takes the prestigious Best Documentary Feature. You’ll love it.
Where to watch: Hulu

+ Where to find the 10 Best Picture Nominees
Belfast, VOD 
CODA, Apple+
Don’t Look Up, Netflix
Drive My Car, HBOMax
Dune, HBOMax
King Richard, VOD
Licorice Pizza, Theaters
Nightmare Alley, HBOMax
The Power of the Dog, Netflix
West Side Story, HBOMax

Flee

2021 Oscar nominee Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) is a producer of the Danish animated documentary Flee, which has been nominated across categories for this year's Academy Awards: Best Documentary, Best Animated Feature and Best International Feature Film.

Director Jonas Poher Rasmussen's film tells the story of Amin, a young refugee fleeing his home in Afghanistan to Denmark. It's a story of perseverance and hope that will surely impact even the least emotional viewers.

Amin and friend Rasmussen's story is filled with enough suspense to make you forget you are watching an animated film. The animation, of course, hides the identity of the Aghan refugee but serves as a thrilling storytelling device that stretches the format into new directions and will surely push both documentary and animated crafts forward.

His story begins with his 1980s childhood which comes to an abrupt end when the Soviets invade and then leave his country. The rest you'll have to see for yourself. 

In a nutshell: Told inventively, it's an intimate story you'll unlikely forget.

Award potential: Uniquely nominated already for Best Documentary, Best Animated Feature and Best International Feature Film Academy Awards.

Where to see it: Available to stream on Hulu or rent or purchase on VOD.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Who Gets An Oscar Nomination Tomorrow?

With a record of 78.7% accuracy at predicting nominees, here are my predictions for the streamiest Oscar race ever with titles that sound like another decade. Expect Dune to land 11 nominations, followed by Jan Campion's Power of the Dog with 10 and Belfast and West Side story with 8. 

BEST PICTURE

Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Tick, Tick … Boom!
The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Spoiler: Nightmare Alley, Lost Daughter

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Spoiler: Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up), or Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Spoiler: Jude Hill (Belfast), or Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)

BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Emilia Jones, CODA
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Spoiler: Kristen Stewart, Spencer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Spoiler: Jamie Dornan, Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Judi Dench (Belfast)

Spoiler: Marlee Matlin (CODA) or Rita Moreno (West Side Story)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter

Spoiler: The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Parallel Mothers

Spoiler: C’mon Cmon, King Richard

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
West Side Story

Spoiler: House of Gucci

BEST FILM EDITING
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
West Side Story

Spoiler: Coming 2 America, Nightmare Alley


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
The French Dispatch

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“No Time to Die," No Time To Die
“Just Look Up,” Don't Look Up
“Beyond the Shore,” CODA
“Be Alive,” King Richard
“Your Song Saved My Life,” Sing 2

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
West Side Story

BEST SOUND
Dune
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Tick, Tick … Boom!
West Side Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Matrix Resurrections

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
The Rescue

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
A Hero (Iran)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Plaza Catedral (Panama)
The Hand of God (Italy)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Bestia
Namoo
Step Into the River
The Windshield Wiper
Us Again

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Águilas
Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker
Day of Rage
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir


BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Frimas
Please Hold

Tala’vision
The Long Goodbye
When the Sun Sets

Nightmare Alley

Step this way, folks for director Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water, Pan's Labyrinth) and his latest fairy tale. This time it's a 1930s back-road carnival filled with freaks and literal geeks — it's right up his own alley.

Del Toro’s (The Shape of Water, Pan's Labyrinth) latest is a tale of a carnival grifter, magically pulled from a 1946 novel and a 1947 noir film of the same name.

Somewhat mysterious drifter and wannabe grifter Stan (Bradley Cooper) stumbles upon a depression-era carnival filled with a world of carny characters in a set designer's wet dream. He meets a carnival manager (Willem Dafoe), a clairvoyant (Toni Collette), her mentalist husband (David Strathairn) and a lightning rod love interest (Rooney Mara). In his follow up to The Shape of Water, del Toro has found some new monsters; it's just not always clear who they are. In a clearly distinct second act, we meet one more character, Dr. Lillith Reader, played by a silkly suave Cate Blanchett that could have been in a 1930's noir.

But it's Cooper that steals almost every non Blanchett-scene, however. With a transition from folksy everyman to overconfident grifter to (something else I won't say), this is easily his widest trajectory on film and his best performance. He puts it all out there. The film's powerful final moment will be on his Oscar clip.

While the dark beauty of this film captured my interest early on, I wasn't sure if I was going to like this film at around the first 10-minutes, which celebrates a lot of the grotesque. I was also thrown by two distinct parts that felt like two different genre films. However, i got pulled into where each scene was going next. 

What a magic trick.

In a nutshell: A dark faiy tale, shown expertly and sometimes noir-beautifully. It's not a perfect film, but it's Bradley Cooper's best role.

Oscar potential: It's peaking at the right time to shake up the nomination list that had previously left it out. I think Cooper will surprise and break into the acting nominations. Blanchett's role was hot stuff, but it bordered on parody and will get misses. It's a long shot for Best Picture and Guillermo will be back another day.

Where to watch it: Currently in theatres and on HBOmax.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.