There's been one award show after another and with a wild mix of winners, there's a lot to be excited for on Oscar Night. With all the moving targets, we’ll need some mathy math to help you win your office pool. Let's start with an easy one.
Win the Best Director category
Go with whoever won the Directors Guild of America award (DGA). Those winners have matched in 66 of 77 years, including last year's winner Sean Baker (Anora). The Oscar goes to Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another).
Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category
Hamnet doth make the most sense here, but the Writers Guild (WGA) chose One Battle and the USC Scripter Awards, which have accurately predicted this category for 12 of the last 16 years, also chose One Battle After Another. You should too.
Win the Best Original Screenplay category
BAFTA awarded Sinners and the Writers Guild (WGA), the closest guide for OG screenplay any given year, also chose Sinners. We have a winner and it rhymes with "winners."
Win the Best Editing category
Throughout history, the winner of Best Editing has always had a Best Sound nomination as well. That leaves Sinners, One Battle and F1. F1 has its editing fans and the One Battle and Sinners each won an ACE editing award this year in different categories, but only one BAFTA winner nominated in this category has lost the Oscar since 2018. One Battle for the win.
Win the Best Cinematography category
Sinners' Arkapaw could be the first woman ever to earn a cinematography Oscar. She used 70-mm IMAX cameras and alternating aspect ratios throughout the film. One Battle's Bauman shot on VistaVision, another rare format. And then there is Train Dreams.BAFTA (60% record at matching) chose One Battle After Another. The American Society of Cinematographers (75% correct at matching) named One Battle After Another lenser Michael Bauman, too.
Win the Best Animated Feature Film category
Go with the math. 12 out of 19 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award. K-Pop Demon Hunters should be golden.
Win the Best Music (Original Score) category
"Epic" films usually win here. The Golden Globes are your most reliable here, matching about 55 to 65% in the modern era. When the winner is also a Best Picture contender, its Oscar chances jump dramatically. This year, chose Ludwig Goransson's score for Sinners, just like the BAFTA and Globes did.
Win the Best Visual Effects category
Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to win the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 13 of the past 23 years. It's the one you would choose anyway, Avatar Fire and Ash.
Win the Best International Feature Film category
In five of the past six years, one of the nominees was also nominated for Best Picture — that's the usual winner. But, this year there are two: Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent.
The BAFTA Award for Best Film Not in the English Language went to Sentimental Value, a category that aligns with the eventual Oscar winner about 70% of the time. That track record makes it a stronger indicator than the Golden Globes, which selected The Secret Agent. With that mathy math in mind, the safer choice is Sentimental Value, especially after it secured a whopping nine Oscar nominations.
Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories
This year is wild with BAFTAs, SAG, Globes and Critics Choice choosing different actors in every race except Best Actress, Jessie Buckley of Hamnet. Like any year, your best bet is to go with the four SAG winners every year, and you will get 3/4 correct. I have no idea which three
Win the Best Sound category
The “Oscar sound trifecta” is where MPSE + BAFTA + CAS Sound all match. When that happens the Oscar prediction rate is over 95%.
The “Oscar sound trifecta” is where MPSE + BAFTA + CAS Sound all match. When that happens the Oscar prediction rate is over 95%.
BAFTA awarded F1. The Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) awarded Sinners, Frankenstein and Sirat, while the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Sound Mixing Award winner was F1.
Well, to be specific, 95% of the CAS voters who determine the winner of the Best Sound Oscar are not members of the sound community at all, so I always say "vote for the loudest." F1 wins the race.
Win the Best Music (Original Song) category
There are no solid stats in this category except that Diane Warren never wins. It will likely be 17 losses after this one. Now, if it's also the biggest pop hit of the past year, you have a solid frontrunner. Go with "Golden" from K-Pop Demon Hunters.
Win the Best Production Design category
This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (just four times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of the Art Director's Guild Award (AGA), which chose Frankenstein and One Battle After Another is separate categories. BAFTA chose Frankenstein, which seems the most alive here.Win the Best Costume Design category
Frankenstein (Period ) and One Battle After Another (Contemporary) took the top film prizes at the Costume Designer Guild Awards. Over the last ten years, the Oscar winner has most often come from the Period category, Sci-Fi is second, and Contemporary is always the least likely to win. BAFTA, which resembles the Academy more than the Costume Guild, went with Frankenstein, and you should too.
Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category
The MUAHS recognized One Battle for Best Contemporary and Sinners for Best Period/Character. Period almost always wins.
Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)
There is no reliable math here, the DGA all over the place and the PGA winner is not even nominated here. Social urgency always helps, which touches all of these, especially The Alabama Solution. The Perfect Neighbor, on Netflix, is the most widely seen one, and it won at the Critics' Choice, the American Cinema Editors and Film Independent Spirit awards. Mr Nobody Against Putin won BAFTA.
Win the Best Animated Short, Best Live Action and Documentary Short categories.
There's no math here but i always say, "the ones with great names win more often than not" and it's helped me many years. I have my favorites this year, but I will offer you the Vegas odds. All The Empty Rooms (doc short), Two People Exchanging Saliva (live action) and Butterly (animated) edge out The Girl Who Cried Pearls in Vegas.
Win the Best Casting category.
Win the show’s running-time tiebreake
In 2002, the show ran for four hours and 23 minutes. It's been trending down ever since, but there is one extra award to hand out this year.
Here are the timings for the past ten years:
Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes
2021: 3 hours, 19 minutes
2022: 3 hours, 40 minutes
2023: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2024: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2025: 3 hours, 50 minutes.
Win the Best Picture category
One Battle After Another won BAFTA and Critics Choice.
The Palme d’Or winner was It Was Just an Accident.
The Globes split between One Battle After Another (comedy) and Hamlet (drama).
Best Ensemble at SAG went to Sinners.
Sinners has all the momentum after SAG.
Whatever to all that. The PGA is the only one with a preferential voting ballot like the Oscars, and chose One Battle After Another. The PGA has a consistent record with picking winners, and has only been wrong two times in the last nine years—when it chose 1917 over Parasite and La La Land over Moonlight.
Good luck with your Oscars pool, everyone!
