Predictions from The Wizard of Oscar — win your pool with stats

The Wizard of Oscar Predictions is here to help you win your pool the stat-tastic way.

There's lots to be excited for on Oscar Night as there has never been a year with many possible winners. It's another unique year for the Academy Awards, so we’ll need some wizardry math to help you ease on down the road to victory. We'll start with the easiest one.

Win the Best Director category

BAFTA recently chose Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), but you should go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award (DGA). Those winners have matched in 65 of 76 years, including last year's winner Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. This year, Sean Baker (Anora).

Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category

The WGA chose Nickel Boys. The USC Scripter Awards has accurately predicted this category for 11 of the last 15 years. They chose Conclave. You should as well.

Win the Best Original Screenplay category

With a few above-the-line awards likely going to Anora, will the Academy toss one to much loved Jesse Eisenberg, reward the wild script for The Substance or just shower director Sean Baker with all the Oscars? '

The Writers Guild (WGA) is the closest guide on any given year. They chose Anora over BAFTA winner A Real Pain. Bet on Anora.

Win the Best Editing category

Throughout history, the winner of Best Editing always has a Best Sound nomination as well. That leaves Emilia Perez and Wicked. But this next stat works harder — no BAFTA winner nominated in this category has lost the Oscar since 2018. Go with BAFTA winner Conclave.

Win the Best Cinematography category

The Cinematographer's Award (ASC) is a good one to watch and they chose Maria in a shocker. The combo of choosing a Best Picture nominee over Maria plus BAFTA's choice seems like smarter math. The Brutalist has a slight lead.

Win the Best Animated Feature Film category

British Bafta gave animated to Wallace and Gromit, the hometown favorite. It's still a tight race with Inside Out 2 vs. The Wild Robot vs. Flow (which is also nominated as best Foreign Language film. Go with the math. 12 out of 17 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award. The winner is the film that is also recognized for Sound and Song, The Wild Robot.

Win the Best Music (Original Score) category

"Epic" films usually win here. The Brutalist is more epicy than the other favorite, Conclave, and should have the edge here.

Win the Best Visual Effects category

Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 12 of the past 22 years. They chose Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. That's a little more than half a chance, so I'm OK if you want to bet on Best Picture nominee Dune here. It has won here before.

Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category

In five of the past six years, one of the nominees was also nominated for Best Picture — that's the usual winner. But, Uh-oh, this year two pictures have nominations in both categories (Emilia Perez versus I'm Still Here) and another one is a Best Animated nominee (Flow). 

I'm Still Here is surging as the Academy discovered it later in the year. Emilia has been the frontrunner to beat but has recently been plagued with controversy. This is a close one.

Based on recent trends, there is a roughly 30-40% chance that the Best International Feature Film winner at the BAFTAs will also win the Oscar. BAFTA chose Emilia Perez over I'm Still Here, giving Emila the statistical edge.

Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories

Adrian Brody delivered one of the all time great performances this year and my gut tells me he will win. But if you play the gut game on a few of the acting nominations, you'll lose big. Go with the four SAG winners every year and you will always get 3/4 correct.

The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. They are a more diverse group, yet their picks align with Oscar more than any other. The stats say Demi Moore, Timothee Chalamet, Zoe Saldana and Kieran Culkin should polish their speeches now. 

Win the Best Sound category

The team behind Dune 2 is filled with legends in the field with multiple Oscars. Same for Wicked and The Wild Robot. 

Five years ago there were two awards, Sound Design and Sound Editing, now it is Best Sound and we have a few years of math to look at. I'd usually say go with Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Sound Mixing Award winner, which has matched 3 of the past 4 years since this became a singular Sound Oscar award. They chose A Complete Unknown (live) and The Wild Robot (animated). Both nominated here; yikes.

95 percent of the voters who determine the winner of the Best Sound Oscar are not members of the sound community at all, so I always say "vote for the loudest." War films usually win over musicals, so my fuzzy math points to Dune.

Win the Best Music (Original Song) category

There are no solid stats in this category except that Diane Warren never wins. It will likely be 16 losses after this one. There’s not a lot of math for this category, just remember that all members (not just musicians) vote in this category. Go with Golden Globe winner and showstopper “El Mal" from Emila Perez.

Win the Best Production Design category

This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (just four times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award (AGA) which went to Wicked(fantasy), Nosferatu (period) and Conclave (contemporary). Your choice on those three, but I'll go with the one that made a library a spinning circle and recreated Emerald City, and the one that won BAFTA, Wicked.

Win the Best Costume Design category

Similar to Production Design, there are three in battle. Wicked won at the Costume Designer Guild Awards for Fantasy and Nosferatu won for Period film and Conclave for Contemporary. BAFTA, which resembles the Academy more than the Costume Guild, went with Wicked, your best bet here.

Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category

The MUAHS recognized The Substance for Best Contemporary and Wicked for Best Period/Character. Choose either, mathwise. The Wizard of Oscar is choosing the more dramatic one however, The Substance.

Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)

There is no math here, every year is a wild new mix. But what is always true is that topics win. With apologies for oversimplifying five powerful films, choose the category that you think the Academy leans to in making a statement this year: No Other Land (Palestinian-Israeli alliance), Porcelain War (artists in war-torn Ukraine), Sugarcane (missing children at an Indian school system, Black Box Diary (sexual assault investigation) or Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (politics of decolonization shown in jazz form).

Win the Best Animated Short, Best Live Action and Documentary Short categories.

None of the nominations this year are from Pixar or Disney so I can only offer Vegas' picks: Wander to Wonder (animated short), The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (live-action short) and I Am Ready Warden (documentary short).

Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.

In 2002, the show ran for four hours and 23 minutes. It's been trending down ever since, and this year it starts an hour early with hopes to finish closer to Super Bowl closure time. This year 

Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes

2021: 3 hours, 19 minutes

2022: 3 hours, 40 minutes

2023: 3 hours, 37 minutes

2024: 3 hours, 23 minutes

Win the Best Picture category

The Brutalist was snubbed for a SAG cast ensemble nom, which historically has been a dealbreaker. Conclave won that. But wait, Wicked and Conclave were left out of the Best Director category, only a few films have still won Best Picture (Argo, CODA) without it.

And only seven films in Oscars 9x year history have won Best Picture without a screenplay nomination, sorry Wicked. Wait, one of those exceptions was a musical (Chicago). 

Conclave won BAFTA. The Brutalist and Emilia Perez each won the Golden Globe and Anora won the Critics Choice. The Palme d’Or winner was Anora. 

Whatever to all of that. 

The PGA has a preferential voting ballot. While they are a more conservative group than Oscars, they chose Anora and you should too.

Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!