Everything stat-tastic to win your Oscars pool all at once

Win your Oscars pool with this stat-tastic help

It's another unique year for Oscars so we’re gonna need some math to help your Oscar office pool. Here's everything everywhere which way on how to win:

Win the Best Director category

Go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched in 63 of 74 years. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (the Dans) won for Everything Everywhere All At Once and are your best bet for Oscar night too.

Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category

This year, only one film is nominated for both this category and Best Picture. And the Oscar goes to Germany's All Quiet on the Western Front.

Win the Best Animated Feature Film category

12 out of 16 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award. No lie, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is going to win.

Win the Best Music (Original Score) category

With 53 nominations, John Williams could become the oldest competitive winner this year for The Fabelmans. Son Lux is the opposite - the youthful newcomer for Everything Everywhere All At Once. Babylon has its supporters but only once in the past 19 years has this oscar gone to a film not nominated for Best Picture (Hateful Eight, 2015). This award most often (past 8 out of 10 years) aligns with the BAFTA Award for Best Film Music, which honored All Quiet on the Western Front's fusion of classical and avant-garde sensibilities. 

Win the Best Visual Effects category

Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 11 of the past 20 years. The Oscar goes to its winner, king of the world, Avatar: The Way of Water. This is the safest bet of the night

Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories

The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. They are a more diverse group, yet their picks align with Oscar more than any other. Last year, all the SAG winners repeated at the Oscars. This means Brendan Fraser, Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Huy Quan should polish their speeches now. 

In the closest acting race I remember, I expect a few of these to change. The Academy clearly loves Elvis more than Whale, so I predict Austin Butler to be the most likely one to shake up the SAG theory a bit and Angela Basset has her supporters too. Your call!

Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category

The USC Scripter Awards has accurately predicted this category for 9 of the last 13 years, but it has nominated Pinocchio, Living, She Said and Women Talking. Top Gun: Maverick's nomination was withdrawn. Living is a wild card (with good reason) but the top contenders are All Quiet on the Western Front and Women Talking. The math, and the wish to see a woman screenwriter such as Sarah Polley win,  says Women for the win.

Win the Best Original Screenplay category

It's a tight race between two highly-original films — Banshees of Inisherin and the film that could sweep every major award of the night. The respected Writers Guild (WGA) is the closest guide and they chose Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Win the Best Music (Original Song) category

There’s not a lot of math for this category, just remember that all members (not just musicians) vote in this category. The spirited Naatu Naatu from RRR has an edge, literally, over Lady Gaga and Rhianna's pop ballads. It's song was more central to its movie while the other songs played over credits.

Win the Best Sound category

War films usually win here so All Quiet on the Western Front checks all the boxes. But does military-based Top Gun: Maverick count for that math? Let's go with Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Sound Mixing Award-winner, and loud ear-ringing Top Gun: Maverick. Everyone wants to see this film win something.

Win the Best Editing category

Throughout history, this award always has a Sound nomination too. The ACE EDDIE Awards rewarded Top Gun: Maverick. The math is in its favor, however, sorry Tom, I think an Everything sweep is underway and editing is its strongest point. 

Win the Best Cinematography category

The cinematographer's award (ASC) is a good one to watch —those specialists rewarded the artistry of Elvis, thank you very much. On the Oscar ballot, only the film name is noted — so Elvis' Many Waler, the first possible female to win this award— is less of a factor when voting. However, the Academy membership is bigger and broader than ASC's cinematography crowd. It's a little more like The British Film Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) which chose All Quiet on the Western Front. The Oscar goes to...All Quiet on the Western Front.

Win the Best Production Design category

This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (Just 4 times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award. The AGAs went to Babylon (Period film), Everything Everywhere All at Once (Fantasy film) and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Contemporary film) — and not past front-runner Elvis. And the Oscar goes to Babylon..

Win the Best Costume Design category

Babylon and Black Panther have been award-season frontrunners, but then Everything Everywhere (Sci-FI/Fantasy), Glass Onion (Contemporary) and Elvis (Period) each won at the Costume Designer Guild Awards. I think the overall love of Elvis shows up here. The devil in disguise takes this one.

Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category

After the MUAHS award rewarded Everything Everywhere (contemporary), Elvis (Period) and The Whale (Special) and Black Panther and Elvis (hair), the race for Oscar is wide open. Since Oscar voters usually vote for the most visible transformations, but Elvis and The Whale have risen to the top. Go with the more loved, more-nominated film, Elvis.

Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)

This year's topics are all Oscar bait so it may come down to which films were seen — but oops four of five are very accessible. All That Breathes (Saving Bird of Prey, Netflix), All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Photographer, HBOmax), Fire of Love (scientists and lovers in a volcano, Disney/Hulu), A House Made of Splinters (Ukraine children's home, VOD) and Navalny (Russian assassination attempt, HBOmax). 

Fire of Love has passionate fans. I'm going with the most riveting one that everyone voting stayed awake for — Navalny.

Win the Best Animated Short Film category

While I'd love the Academy to pick a more original choice such as Ice Merchants or My Year of Dicks, the celebrity VO and wide distribution of The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse should win. Its animation and beautiful brushstrokes are eye-catching even if adults may chuckle at its trite, bumper sticker wisdom. I had to be reminded, while watching and chuckling in intended spaces, "this is for young kids!" Put your votes on: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse to fly away with this one.

Win the Best Documentary Short category

There's not any math for this category. Your choice between The Elephant Whisperers (a couple in South India, who devote their lives to caring for an orphaned baby elephant) and Strangers at the Gate (A Marine plans a terrorist attack in a mosque in a small American town, until he meets his potential victims). Honestly, I'm going with the one most accessible — on Netflix — The Elephant Whisperers.

Win the Best Live Action Short Film category

Your choice of Le Pupille (girls in a boarding school in WWII Italy) and An Irish Goodbye (estranged brothers in Ireland are reunited). One smart choice is to go with the more accessible one here too (Le Pupill on Disney +). In a record year for Irish nominees, I think one of them finally wins here. An Irish Goodbye gets my feckin' vote.

Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.

In 2002, the show ran for four hours and 23 minutes. It's been trending down ever since, until last year's slap.  

Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes

2021: 3 hours, 19 minutes

2022: 3 hours, 40 minutes

Win the Best Picture category

Since the preferential voting system was added, all the old stats don't matter. All Quiet won BAFTA. Fabelmans and Banshees won the Golden Globe, whatever.

However, the PGA has a preferential voting ballot. While they are a conservative group, they chose Everything Everywhere over Top Gun:Maverick, Fabelmans and Banshees. It has a lot of love across the board as witnessed at the SAG awards.

In the 27 years in which SAG, the PGA and DGA have all presented their top honors, only one film (Apollo 13 in 1995) has won all three but then lost the best picture Oscar.

The math says it all. The Oscar goes to Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!