Golden Globe Predictions 2016

The Hollywood Foreign Press is as unpredictable as host Ricky Gervais, but I have an 82% correct prediction rate that could help you win your awards pool (or look really darn smart during the telecast). One prediction that I’ll get 100% correct: there will be no sweep this year. This group will spread the love across many movies.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Prediction: Spotlight

Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road

Surprise: The Revenant

They’ll be tempted to stand out with an edgy pick, but bet on this collection of foreign journalists to choose a prestige film about truth in journalism

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Prediction: The Big Short

Spoiler: Trainwreck

Surprise: The Martian

20^th Century Fox’s decision to submit The Martian in the Comedy category should backfire and lose to a film with actual humor. Don’t be shocked if Trainwreck is this year’s Hangover, which won Best Motion Picture in this category in 2010.

Best Director – Motion Picture

Prediction: Ridley Scott, The Martian

Spoiler: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Surprise: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

This is the year to celebrate Ridley Scott.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Spoiler: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Surprise: Anyone else would be truly shocking

You don’t get attacked by a CGI bear and lose, unless you’re in a competition with Bryan Cranston of course.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Prediction: Brie Larson, Room

Spoiler: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Surprise: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Give Brie the edge for performing in this year’s most somber movie (Room) and funniest (Trainwreck). The Carol girls should cancel each other out.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Prediction: Christian Bale, The Big Short

Spoiler: Matt Damon, The Martian

Surprise: Steve Carell, The Big Short

Damon is in every scene of The Martian. That said, Christian Bale is more memorable.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy 

Prediction: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck

Spoiler: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Surprise: Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Truly the comedian of the year, Amy should win and everyone knows Jennifer Lawrence wants her to win as well.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Prediction: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Spoiler: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Surprise: Paul Dano, Love & Mercy

I predict Oscar will be in Stallone’s corner, but I’m betting Mark Rylance’s captivating character edges Rocky out at the Globes.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Prediction: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

Spoiler: Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Surprise: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

A tough category, but this is their best chance to pick an edgy choice. Alicia’s performance in The Danish Girl gives her an edge of the more predictable choice of Helen Mirren.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Prediction: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Spoiler: Adam McKay, The Big Short

Surprise: Emma Donoghue, Room

Best Original Score

Prediction: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

Spoiler: Carter Burwell, Carol

Surprise: Ryuichi Sakamoto Alva Noto, The Revenant

Best Original Song

Prediction: One Kind of Love, Love & Mercy

Spoiler: See You Again, Furious 7

Surprise: Love Me Like You Do, Fifty Shades of Grey

Best Animated Feature Film

Prediction: Inside Out

Spoiler: Anomalisa

Surprise: Shaun the Sheep Movie

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language 

Prediction: Son of Saul

Spoiler: Mustang

Surprise: The Club

The Big Short

A tall order.

When I look at the best films of 2015, I realize that Brooklyn had my heart Spotlight had my head and The Big Short got about everything else.

To put it shortly: It’s one my top five favorites of the past year. (Two thrillers, Bridge of Spies and Jurassic World, round out that list.)

It’s an impressive feat. Not only is this a film focused on the details of the credit and housing bubble collapse of the mid-2000s but also it’s a tragic film from Adam McKay, a director known only for comedy. You may know his films: Step Brothers, Anchorman, Anchorman 2 and Talladega Nights: The Legend of Ricky Bobby.

The Big Short is a timely morality tale that explores the implications of opportunity and fraud, yet somehow it’s loads of fun. Hollywood: 1 Wall Street: 0.

Simply put: It’s a big, ambitious film that delivers.

Award potential: Expect Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Screenplay, Editing and more. Christian Bale has the edge as the stand out to grab a Supporting Actor nod. Expect the full cast to battle Spotlight for SAG’s ensemble award.

Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin’s screenplay for author Michael Lewis’ Moneyball found more brilliant ways to explain tough subjects, but Charles Randolph and Adam McKay’s take on Michael Lewis’ The Big Short was hilarious. It will be the front runner for Best Adapted Screenplay.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks

Joy

No surprise, Jennifer Lawrence is a joy.

Joy proves that director David O. Russell can make a good film about anything, including a success story about a mop. But it's not a great film.

Joy doesn’t achieve the perfection of either of his last two: Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle. Which is unfortunate for movie fans because all of his stars are reunited here: Robert DeNiro, Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper.

The first half of the film sets up Joy Mangano’s tough life as a single mom caught up in the mini disappointments of life. Or should I say “many” disappointments of life, because the story stays with these for way too long.

Joy soars once our heroine takes her invention outside the home. You can’t help but root for Jennifer Lawrence as the real life inventor the Miracle Mop, the Huggable Hanger and many famous household products.

Who doesn’t enjoy an underdog story? I completely enjoyed Joy once it got to the entrepreneur story. This is the rare film that gets better in the second hour.

Ticket buyers beware: the film’s tone does not match the joyful holiday vibe of the winter-fabulous poster

Simply put: It’s a fine film, but it’s not one of the year’s (or David O. Russell’s) best.

Award potential: Like the QVC mop inventor she plays, Jennifer Lawrence can sell us anything. Bet on a Oscar nomination for her, but not the movie or director. She’ll clean up in the Golden Globes comedy category.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.

Brooklyn

A moving story. 
Anyone who has been waiting for a big romance should head to Brooklyn today. (The film, not the city.)

Newbie director John Crowley’s robust romantic drama tells the story of Eilis (Saoirse Ronan), a wallflower from a small town in 1950’s Ireland who reluctantly leaves her family for job security in New York. She moves to Brooklyn and eventually meets Tony (Emory Cohen), a young Italian plumber. When these two lock hearts, it’s the type of startling movie magic I’m not sure we’ve seen since Jack met Rose in 1998. 

Brooklyn is a romance first, but it finds extra purpose by telling the story of a young woman struggling to find her place in this world and hoping to build a better life. It’s hard not to feel something during every moment of this lush film. 

Last year, the best movies of the year were edgy, inventive films (Birdman, Boyhood and Budapest). This year’s best films are non-cynical Hollywood classics: a newspaper detective story (Spotlight), a cold war thriller (Bridge of Spies) and Brooklyn, a non-cynical gusher. While I’ve been looking for the next new thing, it appears the best films of 2015 are throwbacks to what Hollywood does best — the type of films that “Hollywood doesn’t produce anymore.” I like it both ways; I think I’ll just start looking for movies that begin with a “B.”

Simply put: Straight outta Brooklyn: a tender, lush masterpiece. 

Award potential: Expect nominations for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Actress. I’d love to see newcomer nominations for Best Director and Best Actor, but those seem unlikely, as does Julie Walters for Best Supporting Actress.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.

Spotlight

All the Globe's Men.

As someone who works inside a newspaper building, I have to confess that I may be biased reviewing this film; I love a solid journalism movies. Spotlight, however, is a stellar one.

Technically, this is the true story of how a journalist team at the Boston Globe shed light on the massive scandal of child molestation and cover-up within the local Catholic Archdiocese.

Artistically, this is a love letter to investigative journalism and the heroism involved in getting the truth out.

This story is set in 2001. That’s just 14 years ago but it was visually amazing to me how much paper the offices and libraries are filled with. And it’s more amazing to watch how director Tom McCarthy (The Visitor) pulls riveting drama out of a docker-adorned team flipping through pages and books, trying to get the story right. They also want to get it first, and that causes a furious tension throughout the film. It's one of the best of 2015.

I can’t speak for someone who is a Catholic, but this film doesn’t have much room for religion bashing. Even our heroes are flawed folks. There have been similar cover-ups in the NFL recently, so I saw the Catholic Church shown as an organization, not a collection of Christians who believe. I don’t see religion or football any differently because of those actions. I think that’s the spirit the filmmakers were going for.

Simply put: Stop the presses! This is the best newspaper movie since All The President’s Men.

Award potential: Likely Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actors (Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo). The frontrunner for the Best Ensemble Golden Globe for Drama.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.

The Martian

Let’s go save Matt Damon again.

Astronaut Mark Watney (Matt Damon) is presumed dead and left on Mars after a storm sent his crew back to Earth. Once Watney discovers he’s alone, the story becomes a deserted planet version of Cast Away.

This is not one of Ridley Scott’s great movies. But it’s not Prometheus either.

The Martian is a faithful retelling of the bestselling book and it delivers a mildly fun night at the movies. It doesn’t hit the spiritual beauty of Gravity, but it doesn’t land in the congested world of Interstellar either. It’s somewhere in between.

For example, while scientific plot points unfold, the characters say things like “I’m gonna have to science the shit out of this” and “we ran the numbers and it checks out.” It was a wise choice for a crowd pleaser. This film is surprisingly light-hearted and Damon pulls off most of the subtle comedic bits — but misses when they go too far. When a scene calls for reactions to disco music, you wish Chris Pratt (Guardians of the Galaxy) was the hero singing along.

If you’re wondering why I keep comparing this film to other space movies, it’s probably because I kept wanting more out of this film given the hype it has received. It’s an average film and a not-so-stellar option in the fall when better movies are available.

Simply put: Not bad. Not out of this world either.

Award potential: Maybe some nominations for FX. If this slides into the comedy category for the Golden Globes, they might nominate Damon so he’ll attend the TV show.

The ten buck review: Consider buying the book instead.

The Walk

An elevated thriller.

2008’s Oscar-winning Best Documentary, Man on Wire, told us almost everything we needed to know about Frenchman Philippe Petit and his illegal high-wire act between the twin towers of the World Trade Center in 1974. Man on Wire is a superb documentary (available on Netflix at this writing), but it was missing one thing: footage of the walk.

Enter Robert Zemekis (Forrest Gump, Back To The Future) to put us on that wire 1,360 feet above the ground — in IMAX 3D. The Walk is a seamless CGI beauty onscreen and a nail biting thriller. Turns out, we did need two movies.

The film starts out a bit wobbly. It begins with a fast paced carnivalesque sequence of quick cuts, camera tricks and some odd comedy that threatened to distance me from having any emotional connection to Phillippe Petit (Gordon-Levitt) and his entourage. My guess is that Zemekis needed to provide theater excitement early, before audiences settled in for the slow build story.

Not helping the first third of the film, the script includes at least two contrived bits of dialogue that literally explain why Philippe is speaking English in each scene. This is followed by other unnecessary voice-over explanations.

The film settles in when the characters arrive in New York, and it soars once the balletic Phillipe hits the wire. It is here that Zemekis has created the type movie magic that I’m not sure I’ve seen since the Titanic cracked or the Jurassic Park dinosaurs were first revealed.

Simply put: A wobby start, but it quickly finds balance and soars.

Award potential: The Walk has a chance at one of the many Best Picture shots, but I think it will fade by nomination time. I don’t expect an acting nod either. Gordon-Levitt is getting unfair critique for his lively French, which was actually perfect to character (Phillippe Petit had a very strong accent). This film could easily win some well deserved Visual Effects and Cinematography prizes.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.