Watch a Best Picture Tonight - The 12 Best Picture Frontrunners

In a normal year, Academy Award nominations would be this week. But with the Oscars show moving to April due to COVID-19, the nominations will be announced on March 15, 2021. Also, new this year, any film that had planned a theatrical release will qualify whether they played in theaters or not. What does this mean to you? It means a lot of quality films streaming that are worth screaming about.

What else does it mean? Well, the race for Best Picture is tightening. Here's how to find the frontrunners (in no particular order):

The 12 Best Picture Frontrunners:

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Despite my feeling that this is just an Aaron Sorkin lawyer TV movie, Chicago 7 is likely to gain nods for Best Picture, Director, Screenwriter, Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen, Mark Rylance), and more. It doesn't hurt that it's a true story about a riot-case court trial that is as relevant today as it was in 1969. The story follows an infamous trial of seven charged with conspiracy arising from counterculture protests.

Sound of Metal (Amazon Prime)
Sound is my favorite 2020 movie and the film I'd most likely see again in a theater one day. It follows the story of a punk-metal drummer who is losing his hearing. Writer-Director Darius Marder (The Place Beyond The Pines) and actor Riz Ahmed (Nightcrawler) don't miss a beat. It's finally getting noticed and is a frontrunner for Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress (Olivia Cooke), Supporting Actor (Paul Raci), and Best Sound (which it will win).

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
If ever there was a year to reward Spike Lee for Best Director or Film, this is it. Delroy Lindo plays one of four African American vets that return to Vietnam seeking the remains of their fallen squad leader and the fortune he helped them hide. It's one of Lee's best and perhaps one of the best original Netflix films to date. 

I'm worried that its summer release will keep it off of the radar of voters by March, but Spike Lee's latest joint is still on track for nominations for Best Picture, Actor (Lindo), and Supporting Actor (Chadwick Boseman). If Netflix doesn't spend all its time promoting too many films, it may appear in the Best Directing, Screenplay, and other categories.

One Night in Miami (Amazon Prime)
Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown, Sam Cooke, and Malcolm X walk into a bar... and make quite a case for what-if fiction. Best Supporting Actress winner Regina King, and director of this film, makes sure this adaptation doesn't feel like a play on-screen, unlike this year's Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. She may get a nod for Best Director, but the film is sure to land nominations for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Supporting Actor (Leslie Odom Jr. as Cooke).

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

This film, based on the play of the same name by August Wilson, is really just a play on-screen and to me doesn't deserve its status as frontrunner for Best Film and Adapted Screenplay. However, it boasts top lead acting performances from Viola Davis and the late Chadwick Boseman — both are likely winners.

Mank (Netflix)
Director David Fincher (Se7en, Zodiac, The Social Network) tells the bittersweet story of fabled '30s screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz and the creation of Hollywood's most honored film, Citizen Kane. This black-and-white film is for cinephiles and insomniacs only, but I loved it and Amanda Seyfried's (Les Miserables, Mamma Mia) performance too. Expect a tally of nominations for Best Picture, Director, Cinematography, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, and more.

Soul (Disney+)
Pixar Animation Studios takes you on a journey from the streets of New York City to the Great Beyond and it's beyond great. My soul was touched by very few films in 2020. Sound of Metal, Da 5 Bloods — and this. With a category for Best Animated PIcture available for voters, not many animated films get nods for Best Picture, but this will.

Promising Young Woman (VOD, currently $19.99)
Newcomer director Emerald Fennell and actress Carey Mulligan (An Education) lead this black-comedy revenge story that is in all the top-three lists for Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, and more. It's in theaters and was recently released via Video On Demand. I'm guessing it's twenty-buck worthy, so I'll see it tonight.

News of the World (VOD, currently $19.99)
There have been twenty Westerns nominated since 1929, and this 2021 one (along with America's Dad) could make it 21. Jefferson Kyle Kidd (Tom Hanks) crosses paths with a 10-year-old girl taken by the Kiowa people. Yeee-haw!

Minari (VOD, February 26)
A Korean American family moves to an Arkansas farm in search of its own American dream. Golden Globes’ rule to exclude non-English language films from competing for Best Drama Film, relegating this to just Best Foreign Language Film, has certainly raised its chances of winning nominations for Best Picture, Director Lee Issac Chung, Actor Steven Yeun, and Supporting Actress Youn Yuh-jung.

The Father (February 26)
Despite their tall list of past nominations and wins, Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Coleman are safe bets for nominations for this empathetic film about aging and dementia. It's also a frontrunner for Best Adapted Screenplay and knocking on the top ten list for Best Picture.

Nomadland (In IMAX theatres Jan.29, then cinemas — and Hulu—on Feb.19.)
And the envelope please... this year's #1 frontrunner on all lists features the story of a woman (Frances McDormand) who embarks on a journey through the American West after losing everything during the recession. It's a well-timed film starring one of our best actresses with only one way to go on the front-runner list.

Noteworthy late-contenders and frontrunners in other categories:

The Little Things (HBOMax, January 29)
Will Denzel Washington's film sneak into the race?

Malcolm & Marie (Netflix, February 5)
With its late date and dramatic black-and-white good looks, Producer-Director Sam Levinson's small film could make a big splash in a screening year. A filmmaker and his girlfriend discuss their past relationships while returning home from a movie premiere. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) and Zendaya (Euphoria) play Malcolm and Marie. Not many have seen this film yet, so it's either a surprise hit or ready for the backlash awarded to over-hyped streamers.

The Life Ahead (Netflix)
86-year old Sophia Loren has a true shot at Best Actress nod this year for her role as an aging Holocaust survivor forges a bond with a young immigrant from Senegal who recently robbed her. It's a beauty. Italian director Edoardo Ponti is her son. Subtitles.

Let Them All Talk (HBOMax)
Never count out a Meryl Streep performance, but Candice Bergen is getting noticed for her Best Supporting Actress-worthy turn that is so moving it will make anyone forget her recent Murphy Brown reboot. Which is saying a lot.

Judas and the Black Messiah (HBOMax, February 12)
A Black Panther story for Best Picture? Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) for a second acting nod? We'll find out more in February.

On The Rocks (Apple+)
I don't think Bill Murray will get a Best Supporting Actor nom for this but many lists do. It's more of a Golden Globe thing, but still a cute little comedy.

Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
The film won't get a Best Picture nod, but its star, Ellen Burstyn, might. It's a rough film to watch and the back half doesn't pay off so thank me now for hinting that you can skip this one.

The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu, February 26)
Will this biopic sneak into the race for Best Picture, Director (Lee Daniels), and Actress (Andra Day)? It's Hulu's only original-to-their-platform contender to spend Oscar-campaign money on, so we'll see.

First Cow (Hulu Premium and VOD, currently $4.99)

The film I wish Hulu would spend its campaign money on. It's wonderful.

One Night In Miami

Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown, Sam Cooke, and Malcolm X walk into a bar... and make quite a case for what-if fiction. 

While these four icons did indeed know each other and actually gathered in a Miami hotel room, no one really knows what took place behind those walls. Lucky for us, screenwriter Kemp Powers imagine the gathering was full of thought-provoking speeches and arguments. 

One Night in Miami is based on his 2013 play, but unlike this year's Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, it doesn't feel like a play on screen. Thank first-time director Regina King (Watchmen, If Beale Street Could Talk).

Thank the performers too. Eli Goree and Aldis Hodge are spot-on as Ali and Brown respectively. Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton) dazzles as Cooke, and Kingsley Ben-Adir (TVs High Fidelity) holds his own as X, but he's haunted by his on-screen predecessor Denzel Washington (Malcolm X) and never reaches those heights.

I'm not usually a fan of historical fiction when presented as realistic as this, but it's a forgivable treat to imagine what took place with these four together. Everyone involved was bold to attempt to write for, showcase, and portray this Avengers-assembly of icons. And everything works.

In a nutshell: Regina King delivers on the thrill of being a fly on the wall in this imaginary hotel room. 

Award potential: Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations are likely. It gets tricky after that. The Academy has ruled that these four actors must all compete in the Best Supporting Actor category, despite pushes for Goree and Ben-Adir to compete in the Best Actor category. That could lead to canceling each other out, but I expect Odom Jr.'s showy performance to stand out and receive the single nod.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks. 

(On Amazon Prime beginning January 15)

Sound of Metal

Sound of Metal is my favorite movie of 2020.

The competition was not fierce. I've only liked three movies this year. The other two, Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods and David Fincher's Mank (both on Netflix), are difficult to recommend for all moviegoers, but it's a safe bet that the ultimately uplifting Sound of Metal will touch most anyone who watches.

Riz Ahmed (Nightcrawler) plays a punk-metal drummer who is losing his hearing. This is not the typical rock-star-finds-success-then-crashes-with-booze/drugs-story — thank goodness. It's a story of overcoming challenges. Another reason why this should be crowned the film of 2020.

Ahmed doesn't miss a beat here. His empathetic character is played so genuine that the movie can explore further layers and questions such as the divide in those that view deafness as an identity and those who see it as correctable.

Writer-director-newcomer Darius Marder tells the story in a low-key way that is all the more riveting for it. Ironically, it is the sound of silence that is the most telling.

In a nutshell: It's the only movie in 2020 that I'd go see again in a theater in 2021.

Award potential: Sound of Metal has an underdog shot at Best Picture and Best Screenplay, but it will be hard not to nominate Ahmed for Best Actor. 

Plus, it's sure to rock the title of front-runner for the new Best Sound Oscar. (Sound Mixing and Sound Editing have finally been combined.) The sound design here brings the character's auditory condition to life; it's a work of art.

The Ten Buck Review. Worth ten bucks. (Streaming now on Amazon Prime)

Mank

In Mank, director David Fincher (Se7en, Zodiac, The Social Network) tells the bittersweet story of fabled '30s screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz and the creation of Hollywood's most honored film, Citizen Kane.

Written by Jack Fincher, David Fincher’s late father, Mank is a sharp screenplay that will fully engross film lovers and likely bore casual viewers. Mankiewicz's story is not a beautiful one, but the film's look is — thanks to Eric Messrschmidt's gorgeous black and white throwback cinematography. The look, editing, and screenplay, which is full of flashbacks, pays not-so-subtle tribute to 1941's Kane and films of that period.

Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) plays  Mankiewicz ("Mank") in a bravado performance alongside Mank's personal secretary Rita Alexander played by Lily Collins (Emily in Paris), boss Louis B. Mayer played by Arliss Howard (Full Metal Jacket), and his "co-screenwriter" Orson Welles, played by Tom Burke (The Souvenir). But it is Amanda Seyfried (Les Miserables, Mamma Mia) that turns heads here. She plays starlet and famed Hearst mistress Mario Davies who was forever unfairly linked to fictional Susan Kane, the untalented singer baron Kane promoted in the film. 

Seyfried dazzles on screen and made my at-home-tv experience feel like a large cinema visit.

Aside from Oldman and Seyfried, this all adds up to a series of vignettes that film lovers will respect but miss an emotional connection to. I wanted a little more heart. The film gets lost in the bigness of the time period and would have benefitted from showing us more on the writer's process and the making of such a classic. But I'm a fan of old Hollywood so it still makes my top five films of the year list. (A pretty small list in 2020 of course.) Available now on Netflix.

In a nutshell: Old Hollywood buffs rejoice! Other viewers may skip this for casual movie night.

Award potential: Expect a tall tally of nominations for Best Picture, Director, Cinematography, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, and more. Seyfried and father/screenwriter Fincher each have a good chance to win.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

The Trial of The Chicago Seven

A potential Oscars Best Picture contender quietly landed on your Netflix between Holidate and The Unicorn season one.

Yup, the awards race has begun with the early buzz from recent screenings of The Trial of the Chicago 7 from Oscar-winning writer and director Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network, Moneyball) as well as the announcement that all seven actors will be promoted in the supporting actor category.

It's a stellar ensemble for a film that played in theaters only a few days before hitting your TV via Netflix. The cast includes Oscar-winners Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) and Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), as well as Oscar nominees Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon). Yahya Abdul-Mateen (TV's Watchmen), Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat), and Jeremy Strong (TV's Succession) round out the cast.

Did I mention that this period piece set in 1969 is extremely relevant today? The story follows an infamous trial of seven charged with conspiracy arising from counterculture protests.

OK, since your expectations are as elevated as mine when I watched this, I can confess that I didn't find it worthy of the awards-season hype. However, it is a bofo courtroom drama to watch at home for free. Expect Sorkin's brand of character dialogue, grand speeches, and a big courtroom finish. 

Nobody does it better.

As for the best of the year? The self-important polish of the script makes the characters unlikeable at times and frequently unbearable. There is too much inconsistency to make this Best Picture material. However, as a film, it is completely tenbuckworthy.

In a nutshell: A quality courtroom drama with an all-star cast — free on Netflix.

Award potential: The film, director, writer, and actors are all in the running, but I don't believe the hype. Mark Rylance and Sacha Baron Cohen are the standouts of the seven. Jeremy Strong, so good in Succession, is cartoon-level bad in his role.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

42 (2013)

There's never been a bad baseball film, ever, but some rise to the top. 42 is top 10 material.

The story of Jackie Robinson's integration of MLB is in expert hands. The combo of writer-director Brian Thomas Helgeland (L.A. Confidential, Mystic River) and actor Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up, Black Panther) as Robinson is top of the order material. 

It's a story that has been told in film before; but not well. The Jackie Robinson Story (1950) starred Robinson as himself, for real. Even stranger, Boseman in 42 plays Robinson better than Robinson played himself. 

Playing a man who has to keep his thoughts inside while insults are shouted his way, Boseman has to communicate more often with facial expressions, which he strikes a perfect note for. It doesn't hurt that Boseman has the athletic chops as well.

Throw in Harrison Ford as Brooklyn Dodgers general manager Branch Rickey and John C. McGinley as the Dodgers' legendary radio announcer Red Barber and you have a big-time Hollywood treat.

I saw the 2013 premiere of this film in Dallas introduced by Jackie's daughter Sharon Robinson. The family did have a role in this film so there is a degree of glossiness to it. When it comes to 20th Century heroes, I'm fine with that.

While praised for its accuracy of events, the consensus critique of this film is that it doesn't go deep enough into Robinson's struggle. In his memoir, he wrote that he couldn't bring himself to salute the American flag or stand for the National Anthem knowing he was "a black man in a white world." That's still a discussion today, so we can hope for a film with more grit in the future. For now, a glossy formula film about a 20th Century hero is completely ten-buck worthy.

In a nutshell: A great American 20th-century true story told with movie magic

Award potential: 42 was not a factor in 2013 Oscars and similar award groups. Boseman was a newcomer at the time.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Bill & Ted Face The Music

Whoa! It's been 31 years since the original, but Wyld Stallyns couldn't keep this sequel from happening after the Keannussance of 2019, the year Keanu Reeves became bankable again. But should it have happened? After all, comedy sequels are hard and nothing looks older than a 55-year old sporting Ted hair.

The quick answer is —yes way! 

The joy of Bill and Ted (Keanu Reeves and Alex Winter) and their most excellent chemistry makes it breezy enough to enjoy and you'll catch yourself laughing out loud quite a few times. It's a dumb comedy filled with dumb characters, but with these two bros it works in a way that doesn't when, say, the otherwise brilliant Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Will Ferrell make a dumb comedy. The unpretentiousness of this dated teen duo certainly works in the film's favor.

So many things could have gone heinously wrong of course. Their daughters (Samara Weaving and Brigette Lundy-Paine) are introduced, ugh, but not in the usual pass-the-torch way a franchise might use them. They are utilized not as springboards for a new spinoff universe, but as fresh characters that can experience the "whoa" of time travel for the first time as they round up Mozart, Louis Armstrong, and Jimi Hendrix to create the song that will save mankind. They are, in a word, bodacious.

The film tricked me a few times by introducing 2020 CGI technology, and a new assassin character. Both had my eyes rolling until it turned out the film didn't go deep into the bag of SFX or action. And just when the plot seemed to be going too broad and contrived, it pulled back quickly.

There is a lot of fan service here but those returning characters, such as William Sadler as Death, deliver on laughs. And the new ones, such as Holland Taylor and Kristen Schaal in new roles, helped the story party on.

Face the Music certainly benefits from a year without new movie content and a great 2020 comedy to compare it to, but I was pleasantly surprised at how much cinematic joy it brought.

Is this ten buck-worthy new film worth a trip to a crowded theater during a pandemic? Nope. Is it worth the $19.99 home rental cost? Probably not. But if two or more of you want to rent it, you'll be satisfied with that bodacious choice.

In a nutshell: In the world of comedy sequels, it is most triumphant.

Award potential: Despite being one of the only theatrical releases of 2020, it doesn't have a chance in any categories.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.