Who Gets An Oscar Nomination Tomorrow?

With a record of 78.7% nominations accuracy, here are my predictions for the most unusual, streamiest Oscar race ever. Mank, which won't win any in April, gets 13 nominations across all categories. 

Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoiler: News of the World
Shocker: Da 5 Bloods

Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Spoiler: Darius Marder, The Sound of Metal
Shocker: Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods), Paul Greengrass (News of the World), Regina King (One Night in Miami)

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun Aman, The Mauritanian
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank

Spoiler: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods , Steven Yeun, Minari
Shocker: Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Actress
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Spoiler: Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Shocker: Yeri Han, Minari

Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
David Strathairn, Nomadland

Spoiler: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Shocker: Frank Langella or Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Spoiler: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Shocker: Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

Spoiler: First Cow
Shocker: The Mauritanian

Best Original Screenplay
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoiler: Judas and the Black Messiah
Surprise: Da 5 Bloods

Best Documentary Feature
Crip Camp
Collective
My Octopus Teacher
Time
The Truffle Hunters

Spoiler: The Painter and the Thief, Welcome to Chechnya
Shocker: Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Mole Agent

Best International Feature
A Sun (Taiwan)
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Two of Us (France)

Spoiler: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Best Animated Feature
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Spoiler: The Croods: A New Age
Shocker: The Willoughbys

Best Cinematography
Judas and the Black Mesiah
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland

Spoiler: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Shocker: Tenet The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Costume Design
Emma
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Promising Young Woman

Spoiler: Ammonite
Shocker: Mulan, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Film Editing
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoiler: News of the World
Shocker: Promising Young Woman, Tenet

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

Spoiler: Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Shocker: Birds of Prey

Best Original Score
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Soul

Spoiler: Tenet
Shocker: Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Song
"Hear My Voice" (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
"Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
"Io Si (Seen)" (The Life Ahead)
"Never Break" (Giving Voice)
"Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)

Spoiler: "Turntables" (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
Shocker: “Rain Song” (Minari

Best Production Design
The Father
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
Tenet

Spoiler: Judas and the Black Messiah
Shocker: One Night in Miami

Best Sound
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Soul
Sound of Metal

Spoiler: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Shocker: Tenet

Best Visual Effects
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet

Spoiler: Birds of Prey
Shocker: The Invisible Man

Best Animated Short
If Anything Happens I Love You
Out
The Snail and the Whale
To Gerard
Yes-People

Spoiler: Kapaemahu


Best Documentary Short
Colette
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Hysterical Girl
A Love Song for Latasha
What Would Sophia Loren Do?

Spoiler: Do Not Split

Best Live-Action Short
Two Distant Strangers
Feeling Through
The Human Voice
The Letter Room
The Van

Spoiler: The Present

Does Borat win a Golden Globe in crazy 2021—yes. Here's how many

The Hollywood Foreign Press is an odd group with not one voter that overlaps with Oscars and votes on films all-over-the-place; Working Girl, Mrs. Doubtfire and The Hangover have actually won Best Motion Picture Comedy/Musical, and The Martian won despite not being a comedy or very good. 

Next year, I'll probably add that the Borat guy and his films won 3-5 awards in 2021. Most of the best performances this year are by people with many trophies on their shelf already — except Sacha Baron Cohen and Chadwick Boseman.

But rest easy, The Ten Buck Review has an 82% correct prediction rate that could help you win your awards pool (or at least look really darn smart during the telecast). Here's what's gonna happen:

Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Upset: Nomadland

Odds are 50/50 in Vegas on these two. The ability to award both with a Nomadland directing win gives an edge to the still relevant riot film.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Palm Springs
Music
The Prom

Winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Upset: Palm Springs

I can't believe it either, but it's the most likely outcome.

Best Director – Motion Picture

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Winner: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)

Upset: Anyone else. It's a top film of the year with a female director.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins,  The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank 
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

Winner: The late Chadwick Boseman

Upset: Anyone else.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman 
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Winner: Carey Mulligan

Upset: Anyone else.

This would be a closer race if Davis and McDormand didn't have a full awards shelf. And Mulligan kills it in Promising Young Woman.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy 

Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden, The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen 

Upset: Andy Samberg

Yes, we are living in crazy times.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson, Music
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

Winner: Maria Bakalova 

Upset: Anyone else

It's getting crazier. I don't think it's Michelle Pfeiffer's year to come back. Anya Taylor-Joy has a better chance for Queen's Gambit.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah 
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Bill Murray, On the Rocks 
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami 

Winner: Maria Bakalova 

Upset: Daniel Kaluuya

This is where Sacha may be the front runner who doesn't win. Kaluuya or Odom Jr. can take this one.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture 

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy 
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Helena Zengel, News of the World

Winner: Olivia Colman

Upset: Amanda Seyfried

Close may not have an Oscar, but she has Golden Globes so I disagree with Vegas. This is where either Mank or The Father finally win. Olivia will lose the TV actress award to her co-star who played Diana.

Best Original Score – Motion Picture 

The Midnight Sky, Alexandre Desplat 
Tenet, Ludwig Göransson 
News of the World, James Newton Howard 
Mank, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross 

Soul, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste 

Winner: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste for Soul

Upset: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Mank 

These guys are competing against themselves. Mank is edgier, but Soul has the edge.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

"Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah - H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas 
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 -  Daniel Pemberton, Celeste
“Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead  – Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi 
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami – Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth 
“Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holliday – Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq

Winner: "Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

Upset: Anyone else

This is where we award Leslie Odom Jr.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture 

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Jack Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Florian Zeller, Christopher Hampton, The Father
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Winner: Aaron Sorkin

Upset: Anyone else

I'm pretty sure they've already engraved this one.

Best Motion Picture – Animated
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers 

Winner: Soul

Upset: Anyone else

Sorry not sorry Wolfwalkers and gorgeous Over the Moon, this film almost made me cry.

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language 

Another Round

La Llorona

The Life Ahead
Minari
Two of Us

Winner: Minari

Upset: Another Round

The controversy over a foreign language film not being allowed to compete for Best Picture (same as last few years for Parasite and Roma), should put Minari on top.

It's been a crazy year. This show will add to that.

The Life Ahead

While scanning films available on Netflix, I wasn't expecting to find a brand-new tearjerker starring the legendary Sophia Loren. Lucky me.

The Life Ahead is a remake of Academy Award Best Foreign Film-winner Madame Rosa (French, 1979). This time the action takes place in a seaside town of Italy with Loren as Rosa, an Auschwitz survivor and retired prostitute who reluctantly takes in a 12-year old street kid after he snatches her purse.

In her first film in more than ten years, Loren, 86, offers her seasoned charisma to an unglamorous role. She has her son to thank for casting her as such a grounded character. He directed this film.

The story is a familiar, predictable one as you might have already guessed, but I enjoyed the comforting rhythm of an old-fashioned film with a picturesque setting and bona fide movie star. The bond that grows between Rosa and the boy is the stuff grand movies are made of.

In a nutshell: A melodrama set in the sunset of Italy that borders on trite, but Sophia Loren.

Award potential: Sophia Loren has but a possible chance at a Best Actress nomination but it's a long shot. Unlike Oscars-favorite Diane Warren who wrote a song for it, Io Si (Seen). Expect Warren's 12th nomination come March. The film did not make the shortlist of 12 films eligible for Best Foreign Language Film.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Judas and the Black Messiah

Black Panther Fred Hampton was just 21 years old when he was killed during a police raid in 1969. This awards-season drama is based on those true events but don't expect a prestige historical snoozer — it's a riveting popcorn thriller too.

Judas and the Black Messiah focuses on two complicated men — the Messiah Fred Hampton, the chairman of the Panthers' Illinois chapter and the Judas William "Wild Bill" O' Neal a crook enlisted to infiltrate the Chicago group. Like any good gang or gangster movie, the tension builds as the rat gets closer in and closer to getting caught.

The film delivers a pair of powerful performances by Daniel Kaluyaa (Get Out) as Hampton and LaKeith Stanfield (Sorry To Bother You) as O'Neal. Jessie Plemons (The Irishman) and Martin Sheen (The Departed) round out the cast as an FBI agent and J. Edgar Hoover.

Director Shaka King keeps the story to a tight moment in time and brings it to life in classic cinematic fashion. This was a fantastic film to find for free on HBOmax.

In a nutshell: It's hard to balance important history with cinematic thills, but this solid film pulls it off.

Award potential: Expect it to make the Best Feature Film list. Same for Best Actor. Kaluyaa lights up the screen with personality and will likely get an nod next month.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar

Kirsten Wiig and Annie Mumolo created one funny, Oscar-nominated screenplay for Bridesmaids. Now they've written three films in one. One of them is funny.

Hidden from the mysterious trailer tease, the film is one part Austin Powers silly sinister evil-doer flick with Wiig as a Dr. Evil type and Jamie Dorman (Fifty Shades of Grey) in the Rob Lowe part. (Sorry I'm not kidding.) Its second part is an unnecessary comedy musical. See The Prom. And the final part is a female Stepbrothers, with Barb and Star exchanging similar thoughts on women named "Trish" and "culottes" the way Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly's characters discussed "guacamole."

Those first two films-in-one are tired, unfunny, unwatchable eye-rollers. That third bit is often hilarious and I laughed a lot. I wish the film had been just that.

When they land in Florida for their girl's trip, Barb and Star note that the air smells different here. "It smells like Red Lobster." There is a definite charm here but it's no Ted Lasso. Their earlier film, Bridesmaids, had a more thoughtful take on friendship (mixed with gross-out comedy) so it's disappointing that this follow-up does not come close to that level of smart comedy.

It's currently on VOD. I won't blame you if you rent this movie during a pandemic just for some laughs, but I can't recommend you pay $20 bucks for this either. It's a third of a movie and worth about a third of ten bucks.

Simply put: A disappointing comedy from the Bridesmaids team, but a third of this is a complete hoot. If you loved MacGruber and Holmes and Watson, you'll probably be fine with this.

Award potential: Maybe a Razzie.

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth ten bucks.

Watch a Best Documentary Tonight - The 2020 Oscars Shortlist

Truffle hunters. Thieves. Unhappy campers. Seniors. Octopuses. Today, the Academy announced its diverse shortlist of documentaries that make it to the nominating round. Members of the documentary branch have selected thirteen films. In alphabetical order:

Boys State (Apple+)
One thousand teenage boys from Texas join together to build a representative government from the ground up. 

Collective (VOD on Prime, YouTube, Vudu)
Journalists uncover health care fraud in the wake of a deadly nightclub fire in Bucharest, Romania. 

Crip Camp (Netflix)
This film starts in 1971 at a summer camp designed for teens with disabilities and follows the campers as they become activists for the disability rights movement and fight for accessibility legislation.

This doc, exec produced by Barack and Michele Obama, won the audience award at Sundance and was named one of Rolling Stone's top films of 2020. 

Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
As her father nears the end of his life, filmmaker Kirsten Johnson stages his death in inventive and comical photos to help them both face the inevitable. Already named a top film by Rolling Stone, The New York Times, and Entertainment Weekly, this film may be the most lighthearted documentary about death ever.

Gunda (In theaters and VOD through virtual cinema Film Forum)
Gunda shares a day in the life of a pig, two cows, and a one-legged chicken. Joaquin Phoenix is the executive producer of this pig's-eye view of the world. I didn't make any of that up.

MLK/FBI (VOD on iTunes, Amazon, YouTube, Vudu etc.)
Based on newly declassified files, this doc explores the US government's surveillance and harassment of Martin Luther King, Jr.

The Mole Agent (On Hulu or VOD)
A warmhearted look at aging with an unusual viewpoint. An 83-year-old senior spy poses as a resident in a Chilean nursing home to see if he can find signs of abuse.

My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
If you haven't seen it already, the hit film from filmmaker Craig Foster documents a year spent forging a relationship with a wild octopus in a South African kelp forest.

Notturno (VOD Amazon Prime, Vudu)
This doc captures the not-so-everyday everyday life on the borders between Iraq, Kurdistan, Syria, and Lebanon. It was selected as the Italian entry for Oscar's Best International Feature Film. 

The Painter and the Thief (On Hulu and VOD)
An unlikely bond that seems the stuff of bad fiction but it's art, literally. Czech artist Barbora Kysilkova develops an unlikely friendship with the man who stole two of her paintings.

Time (Amazon Prime)
An entrepreneur, with the ironic last name Rich, spends the last two decades campaigning for the release of her husband who is serving a 60-year prison sentence for a robbery they both committed in a moment of desperation.

The Truffle Hunters (Opens March 5)
A group of men in their seventies and eighties searches for rare, expensive, and delicious white Alba truffles deep in the forests of Piedmont, Italy. Sweet!

Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
During the anti-gay purges in Chechnya, LGBT refugees are filmed with hidden cameras as they made their way out of Russia through a network of safehouses aided by activists.

The Little Things

"It's the little things, Jimmy. It's the little things that rip you apart. It's the little things that get you caught."

For every Silence of the Lambs, Seven, or Zodiac, there are several thriller wannabes such as Kiss the Girls and The Bone Collector. Each of those starred Denzel Washington. 

Although Washington is in older, slower, Morgan Freeman-mode here, he's back at it in The Little Things, with very little success. It's not his fault.

Not only do we have one of our lifetime's greatest actors in this John Lee Hancock film (Highwaymen, The Blind Side), but we also have two other Academy Award-winners, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club). All three actors seem to be acting in three different films with Malek's soulless enigma at odds with Leto's exaggerated, comedic Joker character — and both at unintended odds with Washington's slow burn.

Thanks to Washington's grounded performance, an insightful exploration of cop job-obsession, and a chilling mystery it's an enjoyable ride for a while, but the payoff comes with a third act that defies all basic logic and insults anyone who invested two hours-plus in this film. Even if it's free on HBOMax.

Simply put: Turns out, it's the big things that matter. Like a solid third act.

Award potential: It's been an Oscar predictions asterisk until its recent release; it's off all lists this week.

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth ten bucks. (Currently in theaters and streaming on HBOMax.)