The Hollywood Foreign Press is an odd group with not one voter that overlaps with Oscars and votes on films all-over-the-place; Working Girl, Mrs. Doubtfire and The Hangover have actually won Best Motion Picture Comedy/Musical, and The Martian won despite not being a comedy or very good.
Next year, I'll probably add that the Borat guy and his films won 3-5 awards in 2021. Most of the best performances this year are by people with many trophies on their shelf already — except Sacha Baron Cohen and Chadwick Boseman.
But rest easy, The Ten Buck Review has an 82% correct prediction rate that could help you win your awards pool (or at least look really darn smart during the telecast). Here's what's gonna happen:
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Upset: Nomadland
Odds are 50/50 in Vegas on these two. The ability to award both with a Nomadland directing win gives an edge to the still relevant riot film.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Palm Springs
Music
The Prom
Winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Upset: Palm Springs
I can't believe it either, but it's the most likely outcome.
Best Director – Motion PictureEmerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
ChloƩ Zhao, Nomadland
Winner: ChloƩ Zhao (Nomadland)
Upset: Anyone else. It's a top film of the year with a female director.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – DramaRiz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Winner: The late Chadwick Boseman
Upset: Anyone else.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Winner: Carey Mulligan
Upset: Anyone else.
This would be a closer race if Davis and McDormand didn't have a full awards shelf. And Mulligan kills it in Promising Young Woman.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden, The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen
Upset: Andy Samberg
Yes, we are living in crazy times.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson, Music
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
Winner: Maria Bakalova
Upset: Anyone else
It's getting crazier. I don't think it's Michelle Pfeiffer's year to come back. Anya Taylor-Joy has a better chance for Queen's Gambit.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Winner: Maria Bakalova
Upset: Daniel Kaluuya
This is where Sacha may be the front runner who doesn't win. Kaluuya or Odom Jr. can take this one.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Winner: Olivia Colman
Upset: Amanda Seyfried
Close may not have an Oscar, but she has Golden Globes so I disagree with Vegas. This is where either Mank or The Father finally win. Olivia will lose the TV actress award to her co-star who played Diana.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture The Midnight Sky, Alexandre Desplat
Tenet, Ludwig Gƶransson
News of the World, James Newton Howard
Mank, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
Soul, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
Winner: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste for Soul
Upset: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Mank
These guys are competing against themselves. Mank is edgier, but Soul has the edge.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture"Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah - H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Daniel Pemberton, Celeste
“Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead – Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami – Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
“Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holliday – Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq
Winner: "Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Upset: Anyone else
This is where we award Leslie Odom Jr.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Jack Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Florian Zeller, Christopher Hampton, The Father
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Winner: Aaron Sorkin
Upset: Anyone else
I'm pretty sure they've already engraved this one.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Winner: Soul
Upset: Anyone else
Sorry not sorry Wolfwalkers and gorgeous Over the Moon, this film almost made me cry.
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language Another Round
La Llorona
The Life Ahead
Minari
Two of Us
Winner: Minari
Upset: Another Round
The controversy over a foreign language film not being allowed to compete for Best Picture (same as last few years for Parasite and Roma), should put Minari on top.
It's been a crazy year. This show will add to that.