Predictions from The Wizard of Oscar — win your pool with stats

The Wizard of Oscar Predictions is here to help you win your pool the stat-tastic way.

There's lots to be excited for on Oscar Night as there has never been a year with many possible winners. It's another unique year for the Academy Awards, so we’ll need some wizardry math to help you ease on down the road to victory. We'll start with the easiest one.

Win the Best Director category

BAFTA recently chose Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), but you should go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award (DGA). Those winners have matched in 65 of 76 years, including last year's winner Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. This year, Sean Baker (Anora).

Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category

The WGA chose Nickel Boys. The USC Scripter Awards has accurately predicted this category for 11 of the last 15 years. They chose Conclave. You should as well.

Win the Best Original Screenplay category

With a few above-the-line awards likely going to Anora, will the Academy toss one to much loved Jesse Eisenberg, reward the wild script for The Substance or just shower director Sean Baker with all the Oscars? '

The Writers Guild (WGA) is the closest guide on any given year. They chose Anora over BAFTA winner A Real Pain. Bet on Anora.

Win the Best Editing category

Throughout history, the winner of Best Editing always has a Best Sound nomination as well. That leaves Emilia Perez and Wicked. But this next stat works harder — no BAFTA winner nominated in this category has lost the Oscar since 2018. Go with BAFTA winner Conclave.

Win the Best Cinematography category

The Cinematographer's Award (ASC) is a good one to watch and they chose Maria in a shocker. The combo of choosing a Best Picture nominee over Maria plus BAFTA's choice seems like smarter math. The Brutalist has a slight lead.

Win the Best Animated Feature Film category

British Bafta gave animated to Wallace and Gromit, the hometown favorite. It's still a tight race with Inside Out 2 vs. The Wild Robot vs. Flow (which is also nominated as best Foreign Language film. Go with the math. 12 out of 17 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award. The winner is the film that is also recognized for Sound and Song, The Wild Robot.

Win the Best Music (Original Score) category

"Epic" films usually win here. The Brutalist is more epicy than the other favorite, Conclave, and should have the edge here.

Win the Best Visual Effects category

Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 12 of the past 22 years. They chose Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. That's a little more than half a chance, so I'm OK if you want to bet on Best Picture nominee Dune here. It has won here before.

Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category

In five of the past six years, one of the nominees was also nominated for Best Picture — that's the usual winner. But, Uh-oh, this year two pictures have nominations in both categories (Emilia Perez versus I'm Still Here) and another one is a Best Animated nominee (Flow). 

I'm Still Here is surging as the Academy discovered it later in the year. Emilia has been the frontrunner to beat but has recently been plagued with controversy. This is a close one.

Based on recent trends, there is a roughly 30-40% chance that the Best International Feature Film winner at the BAFTAs will also win the Oscar. BAFTA chose Emilia Perez over I'm Still Here, giving Emila the statistical edge.

Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories

Adrian Brody delivered one of the all time great performances this year and my gut tells me he will win. But if you play the gut game on a few of the acting nominations, you'll lose big. Go with the four SAG winners every year and you will always get 3/4 correct.

The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. They are a more diverse group, yet their picks align with Oscar more than any other. The stats say Demi Moore, Timothee Chalamet, Zoe Saldana and Kieran Culkin should polish their speeches now. 

Win the Best Sound category

The team behind Dune 2 is filled with legends in the field with multiple Oscars. Same for Wicked and The Wild Robot. 

Five years ago there were two awards, Sound Design and Sound Editing, now it is Best Sound and we have a few years of math to look at. I'd usually say go with Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Sound Mixing Award winner, which has matched 3 of the past 4 years since this became a singular Sound Oscar award. They chose A Complete Unknown (live) and The Wild Robot (animated). Both nominated here; yikes.

95 percent of the voters who determine the winner of the Best Sound Oscar are not members of the sound community at all, so I always say "vote for the loudest." War films usually win over musicals, so my fuzzy math points to Dune.

Win the Best Music (Original Song) category

There are no solid stats in this category except that Diane Warren never wins. It will likely be 16 losses after this one. There’s not a lot of math for this category, just remember that all members (not just musicians) vote in this category. Go with Golden Globe winner and showstopper “El Mal" from Emila Perez.

Win the Best Production Design category

This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (just four times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award (AGA) which went to Wicked(fantasy), Nosferatu (period) and Conclave (contemporary). Your choice on those three, but I'll go with the one that made a library a spinning circle and recreated Emerald City, and the one that won BAFTA, Wicked.

Win the Best Costume Design category

Similar to Production Design, there are three in battle. Wicked won at the Costume Designer Guild Awards for Fantasy and Nosferatu won for Period film and Conclave for Contemporary. BAFTA, which resembles the Academy more than the Costume Guild, went with Wicked, your best bet here.

Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category

The MUAHS recognized The Substance for Best Contemporary and Wicked for Best Period/Character. Choose either, mathwise. The Wizard of Oscar is choosing the more dramatic one however, The Substance.

Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)

There is no math here, every year is a wild new mix. But what is always true is that topics win. With apologies for oversimplifying five powerful films, choose the category that you think the Academy leans to in making a statement this year: No Other Land (Palestinian-Israeli alliance), Porcelain War (artists in war-torn Ukraine), Sugarcane (missing children at an Indian school system, Black Box Diary (sexual assault investigation) or Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (politics of decolonization shown in jazz form).

Win the Best Animated Short, Best Live Action and Documentary Short categories.

None of the nominations this year are from Pixar or Disney so I can only offer Vegas' picks: Wander to Wonder (animated short), The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (live-action short) and I Am Ready Warden (documentary short).

Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.

In 2002, the show ran for four hours and 23 minutes. It's been trending down ever since, and this year it starts an hour early with hopes to finish closer to Super Bowl closure time. This year 

Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes

2021: 3 hours, 19 minutes

2022: 3 hours, 40 minutes

2023: 3 hours, 37 minutes

2024: 3 hours, 23 minutes

Win the Best Picture category

The Brutalist was snubbed for a SAG cast ensemble nom, which historically has been a dealbreaker. Conclave won that. But wait, Wicked and Conclave were left out of the Best Director category, only a few films have still won Best Picture (Argo, CODA) without it.

And only seven films in Oscars 9x year history have won Best Picture without a screenplay nomination, sorry Wicked. Wait, one of those exceptions was a musical (Chicago). 

Conclave won BAFTA. The Brutalist and Emilia Perez each won the Golden Globe and Anora won the Critics Choice. The Palme d’Or winner was Anora. 

Whatever to all of that. 

The PGA has a preferential voting ballot. While they are a more conservative group than Oscars, they chose Anora and you should too.

Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!

The Brutalist

From the asymmetrical, Bauhaus-inspired typography in the opening credits to its conclusion at the end of a 3.5-hour runtime, The Brutalist is a visual feast for cinephiles. The attention to detail, particularly in the protagonist’s craftsmanship, is captivating, and the film takes its time savoring every small nuance. It’s a slow burn, but one that rewards patience.

Director Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist is the first film in decades to be fully shot in VistaVision and it's divided into two parts, The Enigma of Arrival, and The Hard Core of Beauty. A retro intermission divides the film.

At the core of the film is László Tóth (played by Brody), a Hungarian Jewish immigrant and visionary architect who escapes post-war Europe for America in a bid to rebuild his life, career and marriage. The characters and scenarios are so richly detailed and convincing that you might find yourself Googling whether Tóth is a real person—he’s not, but the portrayal feels utterly authentic.

It’s also a story of class, Zionism, architecture, addiction, toxic masculinity and the compromise between art and money. Corbet masterfully weaves a narrative that contrasts the 1950s New World promise of opportunity with the harsh realities faced by those left on the margins.

While I may be famously against indulgent directors with brutally long films, I found this film worth every second. In fact, its flaw lies in the final act, where the film shifts from its wonderfully simple narrative to a more event-driven climax, rushing toward a conclusion that feels overly dramatic, short on character and definitively abrupt.

In a nutshell: The Brutalist is a 3.5-hour slow burn, rich in detail and ambition. The pre-intermission portion is perfection, the back half disappoints in comparison.

Where to find it: In theaters now.

Would it be better with Olivia Colman: Everything is, but not a clear role for her here.

Awards potential: Expect two-digit nomination numbers for this one.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

The Wizard of Oscar predicts...

With a record of 82.7% accuracy at predicting nominees like a wiz, here are my predictions for an Oscar race that will reward The Brutalist, Emilia Perez and Conclave with a towering 10 nominations each, with a wicked six for A Complete Unknown and Wicked. Let’s see who follows the yellow brick road to Oscar gold.

And the nominees are...

PICTURE

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

September 5

Sing Sing

The Substance

Wicked

Potential Surprise: A Real Pain, All We Imagine as Light

DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine As Light

Sean Baker, Anora


Potential surprise: Coralie Fargeat's The Substance is peaking at the right time and would fill another director slot with a female pick. Less likely, the bold work of RaMell on Nickel Boys. Equally deserving, Jon Chu for Wicked.

ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice


Potential surprise: Hollywood has a current bromance with Sebastian Stan, elevating him for his work this year, but he could get it for A Different Manor instead, or more likely, split votes which benefit Daniel Craig, Queer.

ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Potential surprise: Above are my picks but at any moment I'd feel equally confident to replace any of above for: Angelina Jolie for Maria and her career best in a movie that didn't work, or Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here if they saw it (and her campaigning this week is on fire). However, with the fires in CA, they probably saw more of Jamie Lee Curtis on social this week than screenings which benefits Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl, and there is tremendous last-minute buzz for Kate Winslet and Lee. And what if the voters put Zoe Saldana in this category for Emilia Perez?

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Ed Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Potential surprise: Stanley Tucci, Conclave,  Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing, Denzel Washington for Gladiator II

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Jamie Lee Curtis The Last Showgirl

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Potential surprise: Margaret Qualley, The Substance is peaking at the right time. Michele Austin, Hard Truths would be an excellent pic. Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez and Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown would not surprise me either.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Spoiler: Wicked, Dune: Part Two

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY


All We Imagine As Light

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

The Substance

Spoiler: September 5, Kneecap, Challengers, Hard Truths

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Emilia Perez

Flow

I'm Still Here

Kneecap

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow

Inside Out 2

Mermoir of a Snail

Wallace and Gromtit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Daughters

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Sugarcane

Potential surprise: MTV doc Black Box Diaries

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Maria

Nosferatu

Spoiler: Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

Spoiler: Nosferatu,The Brutalist, Maria, Blitz, Gladiator

FILM EDITING

Anora

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Wicked

Spoiler The Brutalist, September 5, A Complete Unknown

MAKEUP & HAIR

A Different Man

Emilia Perez

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

The Substance

Spoiler: Wicked, The Apprentice

ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

Spoiler: Nosferatu

ORIGINAL SONG

Compress/Repress, Challengers

El Mal, Emilia Perez

Kiss the Sky, The Wild Robot

Mi Camino, Emilia Perez

Sick in the Head, Kneecap


Potential surprise: The Journey by Diane Warren or Elton John's Never Too Late

PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Spoiler: The Substance

SOUND

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

Wicked

Potential surprise: Blitz

VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Potential surprise: Twisters

September 5

September 5, director Tim Fehlbaum’s gripping newsroom thriller about the 1972 Munich Olympics terrorist attack, doesn’t just evoke the look of the '70s; its grainly look and gritty dialogue-driven script feels like it was plucked straight from the era’s cinematic vault (All the President’s Men The China Syndrome).

The film takes viewers inside a TV control room in 1972, where ABC Sports broadcasters face an unprecedented crisis: gunmen from the Palestinian militant group Black September have infiltrated the Olympic village, killed two members of the Israeli athletic team, and taken nine others hostage. The movie dives into the moment live television transformed into something more than just news—it became entertainment too.

The ABC Sports team is overseen by network executive Roone Arledge (Peter Sarsgaard), who declares that rather than give the story to the news division and let it be reported remotely. But it’s John Magaro’s portrayal of producer Geoffrey Mason that steals the show as Manson’s every move is tinged with the moral weight of broadcasting tragedy in real-time.

It’s also a fascinating “process movie” as Fehlbaum leans heavily into the logistics of getting the crisis on the air, including fabricating new logos with photos and art supplies and then shooting them with a video camera, and very quickly developing 16mm film of events to be shown on live TV (this is where the phrase “Film at 11” comes from). Simply put, September 5 is a meditation on the birth of modern media.

Even if you’re familiar with the tragic outcome of the Munich attacks, September 5 keeps you on edge. It’s the feel bad thriller of the year.

In a nutshell: A morally complex newsroom drama that lingers long after the credits roll.

Where to see it: In theaters, starting January 17, 2025. Sneak previews begin January 10 in Dallas with a recorded Q&A.

Would it be better with Olivia Colman? Everything is. The one female part, however, is played brilliantly by Leonie Benesch, a female and German translator who brings poignant humanity to the film in some small but key scenes.

Award potential: It’s a very quiet film in late release with understated performances and isn’t heavily promoted but despite all that, it's likely to end up with a few top nominations such as the big one, Best Picture.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Where to stream all the films of Award Season

Did you catch the Golden Globes and find yourself shouting, “What is that movie?" like a senior? Don’t worry, you’re not alone—some of those films have barely touched a theater screen, and a few have never seen one at all. In fact, one of the frontrunners quietly dropped on your Netflix the same night as the Tyson fight, and somehow, no one noticed.

But don’t worry movielovers, Ten Buck Review has the inside scoop on where to catch those elusive films, along with a sneak peek at the Oscar frontrunners you’ll want to pencil in for your 2024 watchlist.

BEST PICTURE CONTENDERS (Information as of 1/6/2025)

Currently in theaters: A Complete Unknown, Anora, Babygirl, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, Hard Truths and Wicked

Wicked is in theaters and also available for $19.99 on Amazon Prime Video, Fandango at Home, YouTube or Google Play Movies.

Conclave is available for streaming on Peacock as well as purchase for $19.99 on Google Play, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV, and Fandango at Home.

Emilia Pérez Is available now on Netflix.

Anora is in theaters and available for rent on Apple TV, Amazon Prime Video, Google Play Movies, YouTube and Fandango at Home for $19.99.

Dune: Part 2 is available on Max and Netflix. Users can also use premium subscriptions on Hulu, YouTube, YouTube TV, Sling TV, Amazon Prime Video and The Roku Channel, or rent the movie for $3.99 on Fandango at Home and $7.99 on Google Play Movies.

The Substance, the horror movie starring Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley, is available on Amazon Prime Video with the Mubi subscription, or for rent starting at $5.99 on Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV and Fandango at Home.

A Real Pain is available to rent on YouTube, Apple TV, Amazon Prime Video, Google Play Movies and Fandango at Home for $19.99.

Sing Sing is being re-released in theaters on January 17.

The Brutalist, an undetermined wide release in January. 

September 5, January 17 wide release.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig, All We Can Imagine As Light, Nickel Boys: Currently playing in NY and LA

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE CONTENDERS

Moana 2, it's in theaters now.

Flow, the frontrunner, is available on Apple TV for $3.99 or The Roku Channel for free with ads.

The Wild Robot is available for $5.99 on YouTube, Amazon Prime Video, Google Play Movies and Fandango at Home.

Inside Out 2 is available on Disney+ and other VOD.

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, is available on your Netflix.

Memoir of a Snail is available for purchase on Amazon Video, Apple TV, Fandango At Home as download or you can rent it on Amazon Video, Apple TV, Fandango At Home and more.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE CONTENDERS

Emila Perez (France) available on Netflix.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany), You can stream on Apple TV, Fandango at Home, NEON, and IMVBox. You can also buy it on Fandango at Home.

Touch (Iceland), watch it on Peacock TV, ROW8, Fandango at Home, Prime Video or Apple TV.

Flow (Larivia) is currently available to stream on digital video-on-demand platforms, including Prime Video, Apple TV+ and Fandango at Home. 

From Ground Zero (Palestine), in theaters and on WatchDocs.

Waves (Czech Republic) is available to stream on Netflix, and you can buy or rent it on Apple TV, Amazon Video and Cineplex.

I’m Still Here (Brazil), no streaming options at blog-writing time.

BEST DOCUMENTARY CONTENDERS

Sugarcane is currently streaming on Disney+, Hulu and Nat Geo.

Black Box Diaries, by MTV docs, is naturaly on Paramount+ with Showtime, Paramount+ Amazon Channel, Paramount+ and Roku Premium Channel.

Soundtrack to a Coup d’Eetat, you can rent on Fandango at Home, or buy it on Fandango at Home.

Daughters, can currently be streamed on Netflix.

Will & Harper, with Will Farrell, is also available on Netflix.

Porcelain War, is in a theater run (opens Friday in Dallas), or you can rent through Eventive.

Dahomey, streaming on MUBI, MUBI Amazon Channel, and available to buy on Apple TV or Fandango At Homel.

Union, in theaters, expect streaming dates soon.

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, available on Netflix.

No Other Land, still seeking U.S. distribution.

ACTOR/ SUPPORTING ACTOR CONTENDERS

In theaters now: Timothee Chalamet and Ed Norton in A Complete Unkown, Kierian Culkin in A Real Pain

In theaters soon: Adrian Brody and Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci in Conclave, available for streaming on Peacock and purchase for $19.99 on Google Play, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV and Fandango at Home.

Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing, now being re-released in theaters on January 17.

Sebastian Stan in A Different Man, rentable on VOD, and on Max on January 17.

Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice, rentable on VOD.

Yura Borisov in Anora, in theaters and available for rent on Apple TV, AmazonPrime Video, Google Play Movies, YouTube and Fandango at Home for $19.99.

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II, in theaters and on VOD.

ACTRESS/ SUPPORTING ACTRESS CONTENDERS

In theaters now: Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here, Nicole Kidman in Babygirl, Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Michele Austin in Hard Truths.

In theaters soon: Felicity Jones in The Brutalist.

Demi Moore and Coralie Fargeat in The Substance, available on Amazon Prime Video with the Mubi subscription, or for rent starting at $5.99 on Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV and Fandango at Home.

Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Perez, available on Netflix.

Angeline Jolie in Maria, on Netflix.

Mikey Madison in Anora, in theaters and available for rent on Apple TV, Amazon Prime Video, Google Play Movies, YouTube and Fandango at Home for $19.99.

Isabella Rosselini in Conclave, available for streaming on Peacock as well as purchase for $19.99 on Google Play, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV and Fandango at Home.

Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande in Wicked, in theaters and also available for $19.99 on Amazon Prime Video, Fandango at Home, YouTube or Google Play Movies.

Review: A Complete Unknown

While some of the best movie biopics have come from actors who don’t exactly resemble their subjects, the idea of the slender, emo Timothée Chalamet channeling Bob Dylan seemed, at least on paper, a bit off. I’m sure I’m not alone in my curiosity, though it might not be entirely fair to Chalamet. 

In his favor, the trailers did look promising, and let’s not forget, Dude pulled off a pretty powerful Dune Jesus—something I’m not sure fellow short actors DiCaprio or Cruise could do. On the flip side, it’s Bob Dylan we’re talking about, the ultimate troubadour hero, and the world has seen countless comic impersonations of him. 

After watching A Complete Unknown, I can confidently say that Timothée Chalamet mostly pulls off the young Bob Dylan vibe—about 89.5% of the time. When he's singing or simply gazing into the camera, he nails it. It's almost uncanny how much he channels the elusive, poetic energy of Dylan. But, and this is where things get a little tricky, those moments of physicality, when the character is alone with their thoughts, like riding off into the distance on a motorcycle. In these quieter, unspoken scenes, where movement is all we have to read, you start to notice the wig a bit too much. Suddenly, it feels less like Dylan and more like Pee-wee Herman on a bicycle. It’s a little jarring, but hey, the other 88% of the time? Total magic. 

Chalamet didn't try to become Bob Dylan, he crafted a performance that evokes him. Sorry, I went on too much about that, but it's key to the success of this film isn't it?

So is the director, James Mangold who is gold when it comes to films like the Johnny Cash rock biopic Walk the Line, Ford V Ferrari and Logan, the best comic book film there is. Mangold certainly knows how to create chemistry onstage whether it's a duet (Dylan and Joan Baez, June and Johnny Cash) or an iconic solo performance.

And the cast gets every note right too. Elle Fanning takes on the role of Sylvie Russo, a character clearly inspired by the free-spirited Suze Rotolo—though, for reasons only the producers of Dylan himself might fully understand, she gets a new name. The film plays like a companion piece to her own biopic, My Freewheelin’ Time, offering a glimpse of the real, sometimes uncool, and decidedly human Bob Dylan—stripping away the legend to reveal the guy we rarely get to see.

Ed Norton, portraying Pete Seeger, is the emotional heart of the film. Yes, you read that right. In a surprising departure from his usual roles and own personality, Norton steps into the shoes of the earnest, deeply empathetic friend—becoming the film's soulful center. Director James Mangold doesn't attempt to explain Bob Dylan; instead, the film offers a perspective on him from the outside, seen through the eyes of those around him—particularly Seeger, Russo, and Baez.

Purists and die-hard fans may feel a bit of whiplash from the creative liberties taken with song placements at key concerts and moments in Dylan's life. Rumor has it that Dylan himself insisted on several fake additions as well, the prankster he is. 

But for those of us less familiar with the specifics, the film's straightforward storytelling is a refreshing change. Regardless, everyone will appreciate the music, the glimpse into a transformative era, and the vibrant atmosphere—from the bohemian clubs of Greenwich Village in the '60s to the spirited festivals that defined the scene.

Based on the book Dylan Goes Electric!, by Elijah Wald, this film is more than just a biopic; it’s a snapshot of a moment when the world began to realize Bob Dylan was more than a musician. It's a great film to sink into and enjoy this season with your fave folks.

In a nutshell: Dylan gets the Walk the Line treatment and Chalamet is electric.

Where to watch it: In theaters, starting December 25.

Would it be better with Oliva Colman? Of course it would

Award potential: Good news for red carpet fans. Chalamet should score or win at SAG and Oscars, however, he'll always be up against the fact that he'll be there again. Time will tell if this performance is too powerful to deny him more acclaim now. 

Norton is powerful here and should have similar love in the supporting actor category. Fanning, too, should be on the radar. While the film has a solid shot at a Best Picture nod, it’s the performances that are the sure bets.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.