What are next year's Best Picture nominees? The films to get excited for.

This next year looks like a bad one for box office blockbusters (until Avatar arrives) but a good one for quality cinema. It’s a bit too soon to start calling the Oscar nominees, but here are 20 films that might just make the cut—and a list worth getting excited for.

After The Hunt

A college professor is forced to grapple with her own secretive past after one of her colleagues is faced with a serious accusation.

Director: Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name, Challengers)

Actors: Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield, Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)

Anemone

A screenplay by Daniel Day-Lewis and his son tells the story of intergenerational family bonds, ending Daniel's seven-year retirement.

Director: Ronan Day-Lewis
Actors: Daniel Day-Lewis

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Here we go, again. James Cameron's third film in the series, the Na'vi encounter fire-wielding clans, expanding the rich world of Pandora.

Director: James Cameron (Avatar, Titanic)
Actors: Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Sigourney Weaver

Blue Moon
A biopic of the later days of songwriter Lorenz Hart.

Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood, Dazed and Confused, the Before trilogy)
Actors: Ethan Hawke, Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Andrew Scott (1917, Fleabag, All of Us Strangers)

Deliver Me From Nowhere

A music bio about early eighties Bruce Springsteen, who recorded his album Nebraska on a four-track cassette in his bedroom in New Jersey.

Director: Scott Cooper (Crazy Heart)
Actors: Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) as the Boss, Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) as Jon Landau

Frankenstein

A modern adaptation of Mary Shelley's classic, shot in Edinburgh.

Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Actors: Christolph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds, Django Unchained), Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis, Star Wars) as Dr. Frankenstein, Jacob Elordi (Saltburn) as the Monster, and Mia Goth (Emma)

The Bride
Which will be better? There's also the retelling of the Bride of Frankenstein, also adapted from Shelley's 1818 novel Frankenstein.

Director Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Actors: Jessie Buckley (Wicked Little Letters), Christian Bale, Penélope Cruz, Peter Sarsgaard and Annette Bening

Hamnet

From the popular novel, a historical drama that explores the life of Anne Hathaway and her grief following the death of her son, Hamnet, whose death is believed to have inspired William Shakespeare's play Hamlet.

Director: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Actors: Florence Pugh (Oppenheimer Little Women), Paul Mescal (Normal People, Aftersun, Gladiator II), Tom Burke (Living)

Highest To Lowest

A reimagining of Akira Kurosawa's High and Low, this crime thriller follows a businessman whose son is kidnapped, only for the kidnapper to demand a ransom that isn't what it seems.

Director: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman, Do The Right Thing)
Actors: Denzel Washington, Michael B. Jordan

Is This Thing On?

Alex and Tess have reached an amicable end to their marriage, thus beginning the awkward stage of figuring out how to live separately while raising two boys and maintaining their friendships

Director: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born, Maestro)
Actors: Laura Dern, Bradley Cooper, Will Arnett, Sean Hayes, Andra Day

Jay Kelly

Get ready for the serious-actor Adam Sandler press tour! A coming of age movie written by Noah Baumback (Barbie, Frances Ha) and Emily Mortimer (Paddington in Peru)

Director: Noah Baumback
Actors: George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, Riley Keough (Zola), Billy Crudup (Almost Famous)

Kind of Kindness

The next dark comedy from Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things, The Favourite, The Lobster)

Director: Yorgos Lanthimos 
Actors: Emma Stone, Willem Dafoe, Jesse Plemons, Margaret Qualley (The Substance)

The Lost Bus

American drama film directed by Paul Greengrass, who co-wrote the screenplay with Brad Ingelsby, based on the 2021 book Paradise: One Town's Struggle to Survive an American Wildfire — produced by Oscar-rally-queen Jamie Lee Curtis.

Director: Paul Greengrass (The Bourne films)
Actors: Matthew McConaughey, America Ferrera

Marty Supreme

A professional table tennis player navigates the cutthroat world of competitive sports, drawing inspiration from Marty Reisman's life.

Director: Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
Actors: Timothée Chalamet, Gwyneth Paltrow, Tyler, The Creator

One Battle After Another

A series of battles, following soldiers who struggle to retain their humanity amidst the chaos of conflict. Anderson's first film to be released in IMAX.


Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, Magnolia, Boogie Nights)
Actors: Leonardo DiCaprio, Regina Hall, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro.

Sentimental Value

A young woman in her late twenties faces the crossroads of life and love, while trying to balance her own ambitions with the weight of her family's history.


Director: Joachim Trier, (The Worst Person in the World)
Actors: Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) Stellan Skargargd (Dune, Andor), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)

The Ballad of a Small Player

A psychological thriller, where a gambler and a con artist flee Britain for Macau.

Director: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Actors: Tilda Swinton, Colin Farrell

The History of Sound

Two men travel together in the summer of 1919 to record the folk songs of their countrymen in rural New England. 

Director: Oliver Hermanus (Living, Queer)
Actors: Paul Mescal (Normal People, Aftersun, Gladiator II), Josh O' Connor (Challengers, The Crown)

The Way of the Wind

Premiering at the Cannes Film Festival in May, provided the six-year-in-the-making film is completed, is Terrence Malick's biblical epic. A bomb or a masterpiece? We'll find out soon.

Director: Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life, Badlands)
Top Stars: Ben Kingsley, Mark Rylance, Joseph Fiennes

Wicked: For Good

Sound familiar? Witch, please! Part two of the musical adaptation of the Broadway show, exploring the untold story of the witches of Oz. This time, there will be original songs.

Director: Jon M. Chu, (Wicked, Crazy Rich Asians)
Top Stars: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo

Predictions from The Wizard of Oscar — win your pool with stats

The Wizard of Oscar Predictions is here to help you win your pool the stat-tastic way.

There's lots to be excited for on Oscar Night as there has never been a year with many possible winners. It's another unique year for the Academy Awards, so we’ll need some wizardry math to help you ease on down the road to victory. We'll start with the easiest one.

Win the Best Director category

BAFTA recently chose Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), but you should go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award (DGA). Those winners have matched in 65 of 76 years, including last year's winner Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. This year, Sean Baker (Anora).

Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category

The WGA chose Nickel Boys. The USC Scripter Awards has accurately predicted this category for 11 of the last 15 years. They chose Conclave. You should as well.

Win the Best Original Screenplay category

With a few above-the-line awards likely going to Anora, will the Academy toss one to much loved Jesse Eisenberg, reward the wild script for The Substance or just shower director Sean Baker with all the Oscars? '

The Writers Guild (WGA) is the closest guide on any given year. They chose Anora over BAFTA winner A Real Pain. Bet on Anora.

Win the Best Editing category

Throughout history, the winner of Best Editing always has a Best Sound nomination as well. That leaves Emilia Perez and Wicked. But this next stat works harder — no BAFTA winner nominated in this category has lost the Oscar since 2018. Go with BAFTA winner Conclave.

Win the Best Cinematography category

The Cinematographer's Award (ASC) is a good one to watch and they chose Maria in a shocker. The combo of choosing a Best Picture nominee over Maria plus BAFTA's choice seems like smarter math. The Brutalist has a slight lead.

Win the Best Animated Feature Film category

British Bafta gave animated to Wallace and Gromit, the hometown favorite. It's still a tight race with Inside Out 2 vs. The Wild Robot vs. Flow (which is also nominated as best Foreign Language film. Go with the math. 12 out of 17 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award. The winner is the film that is also recognized for Sound and Song, The Wild Robot.

Win the Best Music (Original Score) category

"Epic" films usually win here. The Brutalist is more epicy than the other favorite, Conclave, and should have the edge here.

Win the Best Visual Effects category

Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 12 of the past 22 years. They chose Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. That's a little more than half a chance, so I'm OK if you want to bet on Best Picture nominee Dune here. It has won here before.

Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category

In five of the past six years, one of the nominees was also nominated for Best Picture — that's the usual winner. But, Uh-oh, this year two pictures have nominations in both categories (Emilia Perez versus I'm Still Here) and another one is a Best Animated nominee (Flow). 

I'm Still Here is surging as the Academy discovered it later in the year. Emilia has been the frontrunner to beat but has recently been plagued with controversy. This is a close one.

Based on recent trends, there is a roughly 30-40% chance that the Best International Feature Film winner at the BAFTAs will also win the Oscar. BAFTA chose Emilia Perez over I'm Still Here, giving Emila the statistical edge.

Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories

Adrian Brody delivered one of the all time great performances this year and my gut tells me he will win. But if you play the gut game on a few of the acting nominations, you'll lose big. Go with the four SAG winners every year and you will always get 3/4 correct.

The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. They are a more diverse group, yet their picks align with Oscar more than any other. The stats say Demi Moore, Timothee Chalamet, Zoe Saldana and Kieran Culkin should polish their speeches now. 

Win the Best Sound category

The team behind Dune 2 is filled with legends in the field with multiple Oscars. Same for Wicked and The Wild Robot. 

Five years ago there were two awards, Sound Design and Sound Editing, now it is Best Sound and we have a few years of math to look at. I'd usually say go with Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Sound Mixing Award winner, which has matched 3 of the past 4 years since this became a singular Sound Oscar award. They chose A Complete Unknown (live) and The Wild Robot (animated). Both nominated here; yikes.

95 percent of the voters who determine the winner of the Best Sound Oscar are not members of the sound community at all, so I always say "vote for the loudest." War films usually win over musicals, so my fuzzy math points to Dune.

Win the Best Music (Original Song) category

There are no solid stats in this category except that Diane Warren never wins. It will likely be 16 losses after this one. There’s not a lot of math for this category, just remember that all members (not just musicians) vote in this category. Go with Golden Globe winner and showstopper “El Mal" from Emila Perez.

Win the Best Production Design category

This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (just four times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award (AGA) which went to Wicked(fantasy), Nosferatu (period) and Conclave (contemporary). Your choice on those three, but I'll go with the one that made a library a spinning circle and recreated Emerald City, and the one that won BAFTA, Wicked.

Win the Best Costume Design category

Similar to Production Design, there are three in battle. Wicked won at the Costume Designer Guild Awards for Fantasy and Nosferatu won for Period film and Conclave for Contemporary. BAFTA, which resembles the Academy more than the Costume Guild, went with Wicked, your best bet here.

Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category

The MUAHS recognized The Substance for Best Contemporary and Wicked for Best Period/Character. Choose either, mathwise. The Wizard of Oscar is choosing the more dramatic one however, The Substance.

Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)

There is no math here, every year is a wild new mix. But what is always true is that topics win. With apologies for oversimplifying five powerful films, choose the category that you think the Academy leans to in making a statement this year: No Other Land (Palestinian-Israeli alliance), Porcelain War (artists in war-torn Ukraine), Sugarcane (missing children at an Indian school system, Black Box Diary (sexual assault investigation) or Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (politics of decolonization shown in jazz form).

Win the Best Animated Short, Best Live Action and Documentary Short categories.

None of the nominations this year are from Pixar or Disney so I can only offer Vegas' picks: Wander to Wonder (animated short), The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (live-action short) and I Am Ready Warden (documentary short).

Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.

In 2002, the show ran for four hours and 23 minutes. It's been trending down ever since, and this year it starts an hour early with hopes to finish closer to Super Bowl closure time. This year 

Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes

2021: 3 hours, 19 minutes

2022: 3 hours, 40 minutes

2023: 3 hours, 37 minutes

2024: 3 hours, 23 minutes

Win the Best Picture category

The Brutalist was snubbed for a SAG cast ensemble nom, which historically has been a dealbreaker. Conclave won that. But wait, Wicked and Conclave were left out of the Best Director category, only a few films have still won Best Picture (Argo, CODA) without it.

And only seven films in Oscars 9x year history have won Best Picture without a screenplay nomination, sorry Wicked. Wait, one of those exceptions was a musical (Chicago). 

Conclave won BAFTA. The Brutalist and Emilia Perez each won the Golden Globe and Anora won the Critics Choice. The Palme d’Or winner was Anora. 

Whatever to all of that. 

The PGA has a preferential voting ballot. While they are a more conservative group than Oscars, they chose Anora and you should too.

Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!

The Brutalist

From the asymmetrical, Bauhaus-inspired typography in the opening credits to its conclusion at the end of a 3.5-hour runtime, The Brutalist is a visual feast for cinephiles. The attention to detail, particularly in the protagonist’s craftsmanship, is captivating, and the film takes its time savoring every small nuance. It’s a slow burn, but one that rewards patience.

Director Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist is the first film in decades to be fully shot in VistaVision and it's divided into two parts, The Enigma of Arrival, and The Hard Core of Beauty. A retro intermission divides the film.

At the core of the film is László Tóth (played by Brody), a Hungarian Jewish immigrant and visionary architect who escapes post-war Europe for America in a bid to rebuild his life, career and marriage. The characters and scenarios are so richly detailed and convincing that you might find yourself Googling whether Tóth is a real person—he’s not, but the portrayal feels utterly authentic.

It’s also a story of class, Zionism, architecture, addiction, toxic masculinity and the compromise between art and money. Corbet masterfully weaves a narrative that contrasts the 1950s New World promise of opportunity with the harsh realities faced by those left on the margins.

While I may be famously against indulgent directors with brutally long films, I found this film worth every second. In fact, its flaw lies in the final act, where the film shifts from its wonderfully simple narrative to a more event-driven climax, rushing toward a conclusion that feels overly dramatic, short on character and definitively abrupt.

In a nutshell: The Brutalist is a 3.5-hour slow burn, rich in detail and ambition. The pre-intermission portion is perfection, the back half disappoints in comparison.

Where to find it: In theaters now.

Would it be better with Olivia Colman: Everything is, but not a clear role for her here.

Awards potential: Expect two-digit nomination numbers for this one.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

The Wizard of Oscar predicts...

With a record of 82.7% accuracy at predicting nominees like a wiz, here are my predictions for an Oscar race that will reward The Brutalist, Emilia Perez and Conclave with a towering 10 nominations each, with a wicked six for A Complete Unknown and Wicked. Let’s see who follows the yellow brick road to Oscar gold.

And the nominees are...

PICTURE

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

September 5

Sing Sing

The Substance

Wicked

Potential Surprise: A Real Pain, All We Imagine as Light

DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine As Light

Sean Baker, Anora


Potential surprise: Coralie Fargeat's The Substance is peaking at the right time and would fill another director slot with a female pick. Less likely, the bold work of RaMell on Nickel Boys. Equally deserving, Jon Chu for Wicked.

ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice


Potential surprise: Hollywood has a current bromance with Sebastian Stan, elevating him for his work this year, but he could get it for A Different Manor instead, or more likely, split votes which benefit Daniel Craig, Queer.

ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Potential surprise: Above are my picks but at any moment I'd feel equally confident to replace any of above for: Angelina Jolie for Maria and her career best in a movie that didn't work, or Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here if they saw it (and her campaigning this week is on fire). However, with the fires in CA, they probably saw more of Jamie Lee Curtis on social this week than screenings which benefits Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl, and there is tremendous last-minute buzz for Kate Winslet and Lee. And what if the voters put Zoe Saldana in this category for Emilia Perez?

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Ed Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Potential surprise: Stanley Tucci, Conclave,  Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing, Denzel Washington for Gladiator II

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Jamie Lee Curtis The Last Showgirl

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Potential surprise: Margaret Qualley, The Substance is peaking at the right time. Michele Austin, Hard Truths would be an excellent pic. Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez and Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown would not surprise me either.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Spoiler: Wicked, Dune: Part Two

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY


All We Imagine As Light

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

The Substance

Spoiler: September 5, Kneecap, Challengers, Hard Truths

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Emilia Perez

Flow

I'm Still Here

Kneecap

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow

Inside Out 2

Mermoir of a Snail

Wallace and Gromtit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Daughters

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Sugarcane

Potential surprise: MTV doc Black Box Diaries

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Maria

Nosferatu

Spoiler: Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

Spoiler: Nosferatu,The Brutalist, Maria, Blitz, Gladiator

FILM EDITING

Anora

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Wicked

Spoiler The Brutalist, September 5, A Complete Unknown

MAKEUP & HAIR

A Different Man

Emilia Perez

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

The Substance

Spoiler: Wicked, The Apprentice

ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

Spoiler: Nosferatu

ORIGINAL SONG

Compress/Repress, Challengers

El Mal, Emilia Perez

Kiss the Sky, The Wild Robot

Mi Camino, Emilia Perez

Sick in the Head, Kneecap


Potential surprise: The Journey by Diane Warren or Elton John's Never Too Late

PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Spoiler: The Substance

SOUND

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

Wicked

Potential surprise: Blitz

VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Potential surprise: Twisters