Why wake up early Tuesday morning when you can get a good look at most of the noms now? WIthout, ahem, touting The Ten Buck Review's 83% accuracy rate too many times, the likely nominees are:
BEST PICTURE
BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Florida Project
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Spoiler: A Fantastic Woman, which is building fantastic raves around voting time
Sorry: The Big Sick, comedies from summer don't usually make the list.
BEST DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Spoiler: Sean Baker, The Florida Project, Oscar may love you more than other groups
Sorry: Stephen Spielberg, The Post, too many newcomers to choose from
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Spoiler: Tom Hanks, The Post, you're so consistently good it's hard to notice but you could take Franco of Kaluuya's spot
Sorry: Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq., it's not your year
BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Meryl Streep, The Post
Spoiler, Diane Kruger, In the Fade, her role is doing anything but
Sorry: Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project, those five don't hve much room for you
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
Spoiler: Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sorry: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name, I'm betting on a surprise swap. Your sunny good looks might was lighter than Stuhlbarg's strong speech.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Spoiler: Kristen Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour, you shoulda been there in Octavia's spot
Sorry: Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip, it's not an Oscar film
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me by Your Name, James Ivory
Molly's Game, Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound, Dee Rees and Virgil Williams
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Wonder Woman, Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg and Zack Snyder
Spoiler: Victoria & Abdul, Lee Hall, her highness' words could take out Wonder Woman
Sorry: Logan, Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold, you shoulda been there
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Get Out, Jordan Peele
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Spoiler: The Post, Liz Hannah and Josh Singer,but I don't know what it could replace
Sorry: I, Tonya, Steven Rogers, thanks for trying
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coco
The Breadwinner
Loving Vincent
The Boss Baby
Despicable Me 3
The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
City of Ghosts
Jane
Icarus
Long Strange Trip
Strong Island
Spoiler: An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, a lot of people have seen it, but sequels are a tough sell — and it wasn't as good as the Oscar-winning original
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
Foxtrot, Israel
In the Fade, Germany
Loveless, Russia
The Square, Sweden
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Murder on the Orient Express
The Greatest Showman
BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Evermore,” Beauty and The Beast, Performed by Dan Stevens
"Remember Me," Coco, Performed by Miguel & Natalia Lafourcade
"Stand Up for Something,” Marshall, Performed by Andra Day and Common
"The Mystery of Love," Call Me by Your Name, Performed by Sufjan Stevens
"This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman, Performed by Keala Settle
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
BEST SOUND MIXING
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Wonder Woman
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
And the total tally will look something like this:
Shape, 11 nominations
Dunkirk, 9 nominations
Darkest Hour, 7 nominations
Three Billboards, 6 nominations
I, Tonya, 5 nominations
Lady Bird, 5 nominations
Wonder Woman, 1 nominations
Good luck to all.
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