Win your Oscar pool the stat-tastic way

Win your Oscar pool the stat-tastic way.

There's a lot to be excited about Oscar Night this year from the potential first Native American to win an acting Oscar to the long-awaited coronation of director Christopher Nolan to my predictions of an opening number "I'm Just Kimmel" featuring the show's host. And of course, it's always more exciting when you win the Oscar pool.

It's another unique year for Oscars so we’re gonna need some math to help your Oscar office pool. We'll start with the easiest one.

Win the Best Director category

Go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched in 64 of 75 years, including the last three straight. In the easiest pick of the night, Christopher Nolan wins his first for Oppenheimer.

Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category

In four of the past five years, one of the nominees was also nominated for Best Picture. In all cases, that film won here. Go with the only film that is nominated for Best Picture this year as well as a total of five nominations across the board and is rumored to be surging towards a Best Picture win too — Zone of Interest.

Win the Best Animated Feature Film category

While I think the highbrow choice, The Boy and the Heron, has a chance to win, 12 out of 16 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award, which puts the math in favor of Across the Spider-Verse.

Win the Best Music (Original Score) category

Swedish composer and conductor Ludwig Goransson should win a companion Oscar with his first (Black Panther) for the clear standout in originality and impact — Oppenheimer wins here.

Win the Best Visual Effects category

Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 12 of the past 21 years. That might indicate a miniature edge to the film that dominated there, The Creator. That's not a lot of math magic to make me change my vote from Godzilla Minus One, which would be a great Oscar night moment.

Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories

The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. They are a more diverse group, yet their picks align with Oscar more than any other. In the past two years, all the SAG winners repeated at the Oscars. This means Cilllian Murphy, Lily Gladstone, Robert Downey Jr. and Da'Vine Joy should polish their speeches now. 

Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category

The USC Scripter Awards has accurately predicted this category for 10 of the last 14 years, and they awarded American Fiction. But tricky to this year, the only awards this season to have Barbie as adapted is the Oscars. American Fiction makes sense here until you factor in the wish to see Greta on stage. American Fiction is the smart math vote,  but I predict Barbie. 

Win the Best Original Screenplay category

The respected Writers Guild (WGA) is the closest guide on any given year — but not this one. The WGA will take place in April which marks the first time it was awarded after the Oscars. Anatomy of a Fall has won all similar events and The Academy would love to find a place to reward this film. It should prevail here too.

Win the Best Sound category

War films usually win here so Oppenheimer and The Creator check all the boxes. Go with Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Sound Mixing Award-winner Oppenheimer.

Win the Best Music (Original Song) category

There’s not a lot of math for this category, just remember that all members (not just musicians) vote in this category. Go with the Grammy and Golden Globe winner “What Was I Made For” from Barbie, sure to be a show highlight when performed. 

Win the Best Editing category

Throughout history, this award always has had a Best Sound nomination too. This year, they all do. The film with 13 nominations should win here — Oppenheimer.

Win the Best Cinematography category

The Cinematographer's Award (ASC) is a good one to watch and they chose Oppenheimer. You should too.

Win the Best Production Design category

The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award and the AGA went to Poor Things (fantasy), Oppenheimer (period) and Saltburn (contemporary) which is bad news for Barbie. 

This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (Just four times since 2000), so math takes us to Oppenheimer not winning here.

Math from the AGA tells us Poor Things takes this one but I won't be upset if you check Barbie instead. Sarah Greenwood (Barbie) is the most nominated production designer in this category without a win.

Win the Best Costume Design category

Barbie won at the Costume Designer Guild Awards for Fantasy and Poor Things won for Period film so the match narrows it to two. BAFTA, which resembles the Academy more than the Costume Guild, went with Poor Things, but they were never going to pick Americana Barbie. 

It's neck and neck. I think the Academy will go with red-carpet-friendly Barbie. Jacqueline Durran's win would be her third, on the shelf with Oscars for Anna Karenina and Little Women.

Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category

The MUAHS award rewarded Maestro, the obvious winner here by a nose.

Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)

This year, even more than normal, it's a somber field of serious and seriously sad films. Bobi Wine: The People's President is the easiest watch, but 20 Days in Mariupol has the most praise.

Win the Best Animated Short Film category

None of the nominations this year are from Pixar or Disney so that math goes out the window. It's best to remember that everyone votes in this category, not animators. Letter to a Pig is a frontrunner that checks all the boxes, but easy to lean into films often win with a crowd. Go with War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko, which won the Annie.

Win the Best Documentary Short category

This year, the films are more delightful than devastating in a category where there is no year-over-year nor precursor math to play with. The Last Repair Shop has the power of its subject,  Nai Nai & Wai Po has a great (Disney) campaign but it's more whimsical than the usual winners in this category. The ABCs of Book Banning comes from Sheila Nevins who just ended her stellar 5-year run at MTV Documentary Films. I'd give that one the edge.

Win the Best Live Action Short Film category

The category is traditionally a venue for new visionaries to get seen, but unless there is a backlash to the pros playing here, there is a likely winner. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is Wes Anderson's eighth nomination and likely his first win. Mathwise, getting seen helps in this category. This one is super accessible, on Netflix.

Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.

In 2002, the show ran for four hours and 23 minutes. It's been trending down ever since, and this year it starts an hour early with hopes to finish closer to Super Bowl closure time. This year 

Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes

2021: 3 hours, 19 minutes

2022: 3 hours, 40 minutes

2023: 3 hours, 37 minutes

Win the Best Picture category

Since the preferential voting system was added, all the old stats don't matter. 

Oppenheimer won BAFTA. Oppenheimer and Poor Things won the Golden Globe and Oppenheimer won the Critics Choice, whatever to all that.

However, the PGA has a preferential voting ballot. While they are a conservative group, they chose Oppenheimer and you should too.

In the 28 years in which SAG, the PGA and DGA have all presented their top honors, only one film (Apollo 13 in 1995) has won all three but then lost the Best Picture Oscar.

The math says it all. The Oscar goes to Oppenheimer.

Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!