In the past 18 years, over 75% of the (non-ensemble) SAG Actor award winners have gone on to win the Oscar that same year — yeh, the SAGs are a much better bet for predicting the Big Night than any other award show. Good luck with both races.
Here's what's gonna happen:
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Film Ensemble
Could be any of the three films above and probably should go to Lincoln which also includes strong spots for Sally Field, James Spader and Hal Holbrook. But only 9 of 17 ensemble winners have won the Best Picture Oscar...so I'll take the edge from a Spielberg movie and give it to Harvey Weinstein's heavy promotion of Silver Linings Playbook.
Life Achievement Award
Dick Van Dyke, OK, now I'm cheating, it's already been announced.
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