SAG Award Predictions- 2013

In the past 18 years, over 75% of the (non-ensemble) SAG Actor award winners have gone on to win the Oscar that same year — yeh, the SAGs are a much better bet for predicting the Big Night than any other award show. Good luck with both races. 

Here's what's gonna happen:

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Film Ensemble
Could be any of the three films above and probably should go to Lincoln which also includes strong spots for Sally Field, James Spader and Hal Holbrook. But only 9 of 17 ensemble winners have won the Best Picture Oscar...so I'll take the edge from a Spielberg movie and give it to Harvey Weinstein's heavy promotion of Silver Linings Playbook. 

Life Achievement Award
Dick Van Dyke, OK, now I'm cheating, it's already been announced.

Golden Globe Predictions - 2013

Predicting what 90 random Hollywood Foreign Press members picked is a daunting task but last year I got 12 out of 14 correct, so here goes.  

Here's what's gonna happen:

Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)

With many heavyweights in lightweight movies, the odds are ever in favor of Jennifer Lawrence.

Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Bradley vs. Hugh. Both are working the awards circuit and well loved. But Hugh was more musical than Bradley was comedic. Hugh Jackman accepts tonight.

Best Actor (Drama)

One of the strongest categories, but honestly, I think Daniel Day-Lewis wins as Lincoln.

Best Actress (Drama)
Jessica Chastain scores big numbers with Zero Dark Thirty.

Best Supporting Actor

Another strong category where anyone could be awarded, but Django Unchained lovers have two ways to split their vote. Tommy Lee Jones rightfully takes it.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Field is a strong choice for her redefinition of Mary Todd Lincoln, but don't we all know that Anne Hathaway was destined to win one of these…and an Oscar. Edge to Anne Hathaway.

Best Screenplay

Lincoln is possible, but Mark Boal, who researched his film from the ground up, may have the award locked up with Zero Dark Thirty.

Best Original Song

Les Miserables' new song gets shaken and stirred by Adele's winning Skyfall.

Best Score Cloud Atlas wowed the industry, but the Foreign Press will go with the only one that people remember later, John William’s Lincoln.

Best Director

If in Vegas, go with Speilberg or Bigelow. I’m picking a well-timed shocker. With a list of nominees that also includes Tarantino and their very favorite Ang Lee…picking the nice actor with a great film solves the dilemma and spreads some love to Argo.  

Ben Affleck, in a headline making upset.

Best Animated Feature Film

Brave is set in Scotland, but Tim Burton did tonight’s winner Frankenweenie

Best Foreign Language Film

More love tonight for Amour

Best Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

Moonrise vs. Silver Linings vs. Les Liz. A tough call, but I think Hugh and Anne’s Les Miserables swoons the Hollywood Foreign Press.

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Any of the 5 nominees could win this Globe, but the tiny little edge goes to Zero Dark Thirty, which peaked at the right time to win.

Les Miserables

When I heard the cast for the movie musical of Les Miserables , it looked like I had dreamed-a-dream come true. Hugh Jackman! Anne Hathaway! Russell Crowe! Helena Bonham Carter! Amanda Seyfried!

Their individual performances, all sung live on camera, are solid, impressive and moving. And the soundtrack is selling well. So that worked.

But dang, Director Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) has assembled a relentless, 2 hour 38 minute movie that feels as long as it is. Yeh, at about the second hour, I screamed a scream as much time went by.

Simply put: Loved the book. Loved the musical play. Liked the movie. The world’s longest running musical has become the longest-seeming film.

Award potential: Hugh Jackman holds this thing together and could win Best Actor. Anne Hathaway is the front-runner for Best Supporting Actress. She indeed stole big moments from the movie — that type of performance tends to win that award.

At the end of the day, this film is a great way to reward these two versatile, well loved actors — but it won’t take Best Picture and Skyfall will probably take the Best Song title away too.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks for Les Miz fans. Others should stay away.

And The Nominees Are...

The Academy Award nominees were announced today (by Seth Macfalane). Lincoln got the most with 12. And we have our oldest AND youngest Oscar Best Actress nominees. But no director for Argo (surprising) or Les Miserables (not)

 

The nominees are:

 

Best Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Lining Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director

Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Michael Haneke, Amour

David O. Russell Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, The Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master 

Denzel Washington, Flight

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanueller Riva, Amour

Naomi Watts The Impossible

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of A Southern WIld 

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Robert DeNiro, The Silver Linings Playbook

Christolph Waltz, Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Jackie Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

Flight

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of a Southern WIld 

Lincoln

Life of Pi

Silver Linings Playbook

Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Skyfall

Costume

Anna Karenina

Lincoln

Les Miserables

Mirror Mirror

Snow White & The Huntsman

 Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

 

Song

Before My Time, Chasing Ice

Everybody Needs A Best Friend, Ted

Pi's Lullaby, Life of Pi

Skyfall, Skyfall

Suddenly, Les Miserables

 

Documentary Short

Inocente

Kings Point

Mondays at Racine

Open Heart

Redemption

 

Film Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

SIlver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty 

Makeup

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Short Film- Animated

Adam and Dog

Fresh Guacamole

Head over Heels

Maggis Simpson in The Longest Daycare

Paperman

Short Film - Live Action

Asad

Buzkashi Boys

Curfew

Death of a Shadow

Henry

 

Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty 

 

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

 

Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpeted Journey

Life of Pi

The Avengers

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Foreign Film

Austria, Amour

Denmark, A Royal Affair

Canada, War Witch

Chile No,

Norway, Kon-Tiki

 

Best Animated

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Painting

Wreck It Ralph

 Spoilers: From Up On Poppy Hill, Zarafa

Alan's Oscar Nominee Predictions - 2013

Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone will announce the Academy Award nominations Thursday a.m.  I have a 88.5% degree of accuracy for nomination predictions over the past five years  — here’s what’s gonna happen:

Best Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Moonrise Kingdom

Silver Lining Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Spoilers: Skyfall, The Impossible, Flight

Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

David O. Russell Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Spoilers: Michael Haneke Amour. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables, Paul Thomas Anderson The Master

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, The Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Denzel Washington, Flight

Spoilers: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master, Jean-Louis Trintignant Amour

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanueller Riva, Amour

Naomi Watts The Impossible

Spoilers,: Quvenzhane Walllis, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Helen Mirren Hitchcock

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Robert DeNiro, The Silver Linings Playbook

Spoilers: Christoph Waltz Django Unchained, Leonardo DiCaprio Django Unchained, Dwight Henry Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Maggie Smith, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Spoilers: Ann Dowd Compliance, Nicole Kidman The Paperboy, Samantha Barks Les Miserables, Jacki Weaver Silver Linings Playbook

 Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Looper

Moonrise Kingdom

The Master

Zero Dark Thirty

Spoilers: Django Unchained, The Master, Flight

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Lincoln

Life of Pi

Perks of Being a Wallflower

Silver Linings Playbook

Spoilers: Beast of Southern Wild

Cinematography

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Les Miserables

The Master

Skyfall

Costume

Anna Karenina

Cloud Atlas

Django Unchained

Lincoln

Les Miserables

Score

Anna Karenina

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Song

Freedom, Django

Learn Her Right, Brave   

Skyfall, Skyfall

Suddenly, Les Miserables

Best Foreign Film

Austria, Amour

Denmark, A Royal Affair

France, The Intouchables

Chile No,

Norway, Kon-Tiki

 Spoilers: Switzerland, Sister, Canada War Witch, Iceland The Deep

Best Animated

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Painting

Wreck It Ralph

 Spoilers: From Up On Poppy Hill, Zarafa

 

Hitchcock

As a lover of all things movie making, Alfred Hitchcock and Hollywood, I was easily engaged in Hitchcock from start to finish. But in the first 30 minutes I knew that you could kill of any chance of this being one of the better movies of 2012.

This over-simplistic tale would have made a better TV biopic and it mightily surpasses HBO’s recent Hitchcock biopic, The Girl. 

What does work here is the relationship between Alfred (Anthony Hopkins) and his wife Alma (Helen Mirren). This is a nice film, not a great one. And to use a quote from the film (not the stillbirth one), “Charming. Doris Day should do it as a musical.”

Simply put: Fun for fans of movie making, but this film is hardly worthy of the Master of Suspense.

Award potential: Anthony Hopkins was inconsistent, but Helen Mirren was consistently wonderful enough to have a chance at an Oscar nomination — but probably won’t make the cut. If there were 7 nominees, not 5, she’d be up for another award. In another year, I'd also mention Best Makeup.

The ten buck review: Worth two bucks. A great rental.

Silver Linings Playbook

In his follow up to the terrific film, The Fighter, writer-director David O. Russell finds the perfect tone to craft a lighthearted romantic comedy about someone suffering from a heavyweight issue: bipolar disorder and depression.

Silver Linings is based on a clever novel by Matthew Quick. And for once, the movie is actually better than the book. Thank the smart dialogue and superb performances by Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence and Robert DeNiro, who finally has a role he seems to engage in.

Actually, just thank David Russell. This could have been another crazy-family comedy, but the silver lining is that he has created a modern classic.

Simply put: Family nuttiness. Football. Dancing. Romance. It’s a smart crowd pleaser.

Award potential: Lots. Count on nominations for Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and acting nods for Cooper, Lawrence and DeNiro.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.