OZ The Great And Powerful

I don't want to be a good man. I want to be a great one.

And although this movie wants to be a great one, it winds up being, well, pretty good. Director Sam Raimi, best known for the first three Spider-Man movies, starts things out right with an inspired black and white opening that reveals Oz (James Franco) as a con artist magician.

The color opens up to a wonderful world of awe: lavish colors, spectacular costumes, a clever China Town, a dazzling Emerald City — and then the plot falls magically flat. Which witch is the evil one? Which witch gives the blandest performance of them all? A pre-story to the wizard is a great idea; it just didn’t work out here.

James Franco, my favorite goof, is so modern, self aware and cynical that he actually forces the annoying munchkins to stop singing. If there is any charm or innocence in this movie, the great Oz probably faked it.

Simply put: Not so great or powerful, but mildly entertaining

Award potential: This Oz won’t be off to see any Oscars. The effects and costumes are nice, but I bet 2013 will bring stronger contenders in all the visual categories.

The ten buck review: Not worth ten bucks.

Oscars Playbook: 10 stats you need to know to win your Oscars pool

Oscars Playbook: 10 stats you need to know to win your Oscars pool

1. Win the Visual Effect category

Historically, a Best Visual Effects nominee that also has a Best Picture nomination will always win. Last year, Best Picture nominee Hugo, won over Harry Potter, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet Apes and Transformers.

Bad news for Prometheus.

Also noteworthy, for seven of the past 10 VES Awards, the winner for outstanding VFX has gone on to win the Oscar in that category.

2. Composer John Williams always wins, right?

John Williams, competing in the original score category for Lincoln, has the most nominations of any living person with 48. But he’s only won it 5 times. His last win was for Schindler's List —in 1993.

3. Spielberg always wins, right?

Along with The Turning Point, Steven Spielberg’s The Color Purple holds the record for most nominations, 11, without any wins. Spielberg’s Lincoln has 12 nominations this year.

4. Win the Best Costume category

Period movies have won Best Costume for 18 of the past 21 years. Exceptions were Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Dracula and Alice in Wonderland.

5. Forget how you’ve always voted in the past — for these 3 categories

New to this year, ALL members of the Academy (not just peers in the category) can pick the winners of:

Best Documentary Feature

Best Animated Short Subject

Best Live Action Short Subject

That means everyone from actors to musicians will have a say instead of just documentarians. Bet on something with a cute animal, just saying.

6. For tiebreakers that ask you to bet on the show’s running time, look to these trends.

In 2002, the show ran 4 hours and 23 minutes. Whew! But just like its ratings, the show has been getting smaller ever since. Here are the timings on the past five years:

2008: 3 hours, 21 minutes

2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes

2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes

2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes

2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes

7. Don’t use the Golden Globes as a crutch

It’s a fun show, but don’t use The Golden Globes as a guide for your Oscar Night picks. In the past 8 years, only 2 of the Golden Globe winners for Best Picture matched the Academy’s Best Picture winner (even though GG has TWO  chances to match up each year with both drama and comedy/musical categories).

8. Win the Best Sound Editing category

The loudest movie takes Best Sound Editing, period. Speed, Pearl Harbor and Bourne Ultimatum have all won Oscars.

9. Win the Best Foreign Language Film category

The foreign film that was playing at the Angelika Dallas during the week of the Oscars has won Best Foreign Language Film for 7 of the past 8 years.

10. Win the Best Picture category

We all know about needing a director nomination to win, but this year, sympathy for Affleck’s snub may actually help Argo win.

So consider these two facts instead: only nine movies have ever won best picture without a Best Film Editing nomination since the category was introduced in 1934. The most recent of which came 22 years ago, Ordinary People (1980).

And only two films in the last 57 years have won best picture without a Best Screenplay nomination, the most recent being Titanic (1997).

Good luck!

The Impossible

"Go and help people.”

The Impossible is based on a true story about a family vacationing in Thailand in 2004 when a cataclysmic earthquake in the Indian Ocean unleashed history’s most destructive tsunami.

The film begins with director Juan Antonio Bayona’s dynamo tsunami scene that surpasses Clint Eastwood's once-impressive one in Hereafter. Bayona captures the magnitude of the disaster’s effect on thousands of people in Thailand, but he soon moves to a more personal story. One that is haunting, poignant — and tough to watch at times.

The full cast does a remarkable job of convincing us of their personal struggles to tell us something about humanity. Mel Gibson and Anne Hathaway would have screamed through this; kudos to the subtle and refined Naomi Watts and Ewan McGregor.

Simply put: An astonishing real life story.

Award potential: Watts is the underdog to win Best Actress. Ewan McGregor’s category was too tough for someone who split the screen time with the her, and the film was also robbed of a nomination for Best Visual Effects.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks. Bring tissues.

Django Unchained

Director Quentin Tarantino’s tribute to the spaghetti Western stars two intriguing characters: Jamie Foxx as Django, a slave whose brutal history with his former owners lands him face-to-face with bounty hunter Dr. King Schultz (Christoph Waltz).

The actors,who also include Leonardo DiCaprio and Samuel L. Jackson, are in fine form and having fun in this ironically exploitative film. Tarantino has created some great scenes, but as a whole, this hit-or-miss movie just isn’t that clever. And it most definitely isn’t 2 hours and 45 minutes clever.

A liberal-hearted revenge Western is a fun concept, but you get the feeling that Tarantino just wants to shock you at every moment while he has you trapped in the theater. That’s only fun for the first hour — then I just felt ripped off.

Simply put: More unhinged than unchained. I'll give it a silent D.

Award potential: Nominated for Best Picture, Best Supporting and Best Original Screenplay.

The ten buck review: Not worth ten bucks. Go enjoy the scenes in the film trailer instead.

Zero Dark Thirty

“You can help yourself by being truthful.”

Zero Dark Thirty reunites the Oscar winning team of director-producer Kathryn Bigelow and writer-producer Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker) for the step by step story of the manhunt for the world's most dangerous man­— Osama bin Laden.

Screenwriter Boal has acknowledged that “all of the characters in the film are based on real people.” Some of these real people, like the agent who inspired main character Maya (Jessica Chastain), still work under secret identities.

Most of the meticulously crafted story is rolled out in a matter-of-fact way, which may disappoint someone looking for a character-driven film. But these very details will delight anyone fascinated by the process that led to finding OBL.

Following all this procedural drama, Bigelow recreates the Navy Seal’s raid on the compound, which gives the movie a satisfying thriller climax.

Simply put: The current torture controversy in the press shouldn’t distract from this meticulously crafted thriller that is about so much more.

Award potential: Nominated for Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay. With Zero chances at Best Director (Bigelow was not nominated). Chastain has a procedural-type role, which is usually good enough for a nomination only. This film could get rewarded in one area — for the research and talent to write the screenplay. But the torture controversy may rob it of that too.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.

SAG Award Predictions- 2013

In the past 18 years, over 75% of the (non-ensemble) SAG Actor award winners have gone on to win the Oscar that same year — yeh, the SAGs are a much better bet for predicting the Big Night than any other award show. Good luck with both races. 

Here's what's gonna happen:

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Film Ensemble
Could be any of the three films above and probably should go to Lincoln which also includes strong spots for Sally Field, James Spader and Hal Holbrook. But only 9 of 17 ensemble winners have won the Best Picture Oscar...so I'll take the edge from a Spielberg movie and give it to Harvey Weinstein's heavy promotion of Silver Linings Playbook. 

Life Achievement Award
Dick Van Dyke, OK, now I'm cheating, it's already been announced.

Golden Globe Predictions - 2013

Predicting what 90 random Hollywood Foreign Press members picked is a daunting task but last year I got 12 out of 14 correct, so here goes.  

Here's what's gonna happen:

Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)

With many heavyweights in lightweight movies, the odds are ever in favor of Jennifer Lawrence.

Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Bradley vs. Hugh. Both are working the awards circuit and well loved. But Hugh was more musical than Bradley was comedic. Hugh Jackman accepts tonight.

Best Actor (Drama)

One of the strongest categories, but honestly, I think Daniel Day-Lewis wins as Lincoln.

Best Actress (Drama)
Jessica Chastain scores big numbers with Zero Dark Thirty.

Best Supporting Actor

Another strong category where anyone could be awarded, but Django Unchained lovers have two ways to split their vote. Tommy Lee Jones rightfully takes it.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Field is a strong choice for her redefinition of Mary Todd Lincoln, but don't we all know that Anne Hathaway was destined to win one of these…and an Oscar. Edge to Anne Hathaway.

Best Screenplay

Lincoln is possible, but Mark Boal, who researched his film from the ground up, may have the award locked up with Zero Dark Thirty.

Best Original Song

Les Miserables' new song gets shaken and stirred by Adele's winning Skyfall.

Best Score Cloud Atlas wowed the industry, but the Foreign Press will go with the only one that people remember later, John William’s Lincoln.

Best Director

If in Vegas, go with Speilberg or Bigelow. I’m picking a well-timed shocker. With a list of nominees that also includes Tarantino and their very favorite Ang Lee…picking the nice actor with a great film solves the dilemma and spreads some love to Argo.  

Ben Affleck, in a headline making upset.

Best Animated Feature Film

Brave is set in Scotland, but Tim Burton did tonight’s winner Frankenweenie

Best Foreign Language Film

More love tonight for Amour

Best Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

Moonrise vs. Silver Linings vs. Les Liz. A tough call, but I think Hugh and Anne’s Les Miserables swoons the Hollywood Foreign Press.

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Any of the 5 nominees could win this Globe, but the tiny little edge goes to Zero Dark Thirty, which peaked at the right time to win.