Icarus

A game-changer.

Throughout his career, cyclist Lance Armstrong passed over 250 drug tests with flying colors. As we now know, that status does not mean that he didn't dope. Director and cyclist Bryan Fogel decided to game the system the same way, and capture it in an undercover documentary.

Early into his documentary, Fogel meets an unlikely comrade in his search — Dr. Grigory Rodchenkov, the head of the Russian anti-doping program, who helps him use performance-enhancing drugs without getting caught.

As you may know from the news, Rodchenkov designed a doping system that gave the Russian Olympians a hidden advantage. The story, that began as an investigation into doping cyclists, jumps off course into a story of international conspiracy that includes a whistleblower who points a finger towards Vladimir Putin, who ordered and oversaw Rodchenkov's program.

When one of the whistleblower's colleagues dies suspiciously, the documentary picks up speed as a thriller. And it is thrilling. We don't find out why the participants agreed to be captured on film, but the audience is there for the ride.

As the story unfolds, Fogel wisely shifts the focus away from himself and this original quest to let viewers glimpse into the world of the oversized, true-life character Rodchenkov. It's dope; Icarus was nominated this week for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar.

In a nutshell: From start to a big finish, Icarus is an illuminating documentary about international athletics.

Award potential: Already nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature, Icarus faces tough competition with Faces Places and the Last Men in Aleppo. 

However, Icarus could win. While nominations are made by just the documentary brandh, every Academy member (including actors) votes on the Oscar. Being easily accessible on Netflix helps it get seen and discussed by others. That's not cheating, right?

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.

2018 Oscar Nominations - Predictions

Why wake up early Tuesday morning when you can get a good look at most of the noms now? WIthout, ahem, touting The Ten Buck Review's 83% accuracy rate too many times, the likely nominees are:

BEST PICTURE

Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour 
Dunkirk
I, Tonya 
Get Out 
Lady Bird 
The Florida Project 
The Post 
The Shape of Water 
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
 
Spoiler: A Fantastic Woman, which is building fantastic raves around voting time
Sorry: The Big Sick, comedies from summer don't usually make the list.

BEST DIRECTOR

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird 
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
 
Spoiler: Sean Baker, The Florida Project, Oscar may love you more than other groups
Sorry: Stephen Spielberg, The Post, too many newcomers to choose from

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
 
Spoiler: Tom Hanks, The Post, you're so consistently good it's hard to notice but you could take Franco of Kaluuya's spot
Sorry: Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq., it's not your year

BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Meryl Streep, The Post

Spoiler, Diane Kruger, In the Fade, her role is doing anything but
Sorry: Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project, those five don't hve much room for you

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World 
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

Spoiler: Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sorry: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name, I'm betting on a surprise swap. Your sunny good looks might was lighter than Stuhlbarg's strong speech.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Spoiler: Kristen Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour, you shoulda been there in Octavia's spot
Sorry: Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip, it's not an Oscar film

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me by Your Name, James Ivory
Molly's Game, Aaron Sorkin 
Mudbound, Dee Rees and Virgil Williams 
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber 
Wonder Woman, Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg and Zack Snyder

Spoiler: Victoria & Abdul, Lee Hall, her highness' words could take out Wonder Woman
Sorry: Logan, Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold, you shoulda been there



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh 
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig 
Get Out, Jordan Peele
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor 
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani

Spoiler: The Post, Liz Hannah and Josh Singer,but I don't know what it could replace
Sorry: I, Tonya, Steven Rogers, thanks for trying

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coco 
The Breadwinner 
Loving Vincent 
The Boss Baby 
Despicable Me 3 
The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
City of Ghosts 
Jane 
Icarus 
Long Strange Trip 
Strong Island 

Spoiler: An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, a lot of people have seen it, but sequels are a tough sell — and it wasn't as good as the Oscar-winning original

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman, Chile 
Foxtrot, Israel
In the Fade, Germany
Loveless, Russia 
The Square, Sweden 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 
Blade Runner 2049 
Darkest Hour 
Dunkirk 
Mudbound 
The Shape of Water 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Phantom Thread 
Beauty and the Beast 
Darkest Hour 
Murder on the Orient Express 
The Greatest Showman 

BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver 
Dunkirk 
I, Tonya 
The Shape of Water 
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour 
I, Tonya 
Wonder

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Darkest Hour 
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread 
The Post 
The Shape of Water 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Evermore,” Beauty and The Beast, Performed by Dan Stevens
"Remember Me," Coco, Performed by Miguel & Natalia Lafourcade
"Stand Up for Something,” Marshall, Performed by Andra Day and Common
"The Mystery of Love," Call Me by Your Name, Performed by Sufjan Stevens
"This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman, Performed by Keala Settle

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Blade Runner 2049 
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk 
The Shape of Water

BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver 
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk 
Star Wars: The Last Jedi 
The Shape of Water 

BEST SOUND MIXING
Blade Runner 2049 
Dunkirk 
Star Wars: The Last Jedi 
The Shape of Water 
Wonder Woman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk 
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Star Wars: The Last Jedi 
War for the Planet of the Apes

And the total tally will look something like this:
Shape, 11 nominations
Dunkirk, 9 nominations
Darkest Hour, 7 nominations
Three Billboards, 6 nominations
I, Tonya, 5 nominations
Lady Bird, 5 nominations 
Wonder Woman, 1 nominations

Good luck to all.

I, Tonya

As the title I Tonya suggests, the infamous Harding was the key witness to the most bizarre period of professional ice skating history, and anyone watching this film should prepare to hear her version of the truth to that story.

Hollywood starlet Margot Robbie disappears into the role of Harding, an athletic performer who never fit into the mold of ice skating princess. It's why she was too often compared to competitor Nancy Kerrigan, and it's why we root for this "white trash" underdog throughout this film.

More than a TV story of the week, it's a crafted comedy with some serious subjects. Harding was a victim of abuse by her mother, her husband, and us, as the film is clear to point out while wagging its finger at the audience. I,Tonya simultaneously asks us to root for this American athlete with the raw skills to be a champion, while begging us to laugh at her life and the people who surrounded her. It's a confusing space for the viewer.

Director Craig Gillespie shot this film as if it's a documentary, which did make me wish I was watching one. While full of strong performances and guilt-filled laughs, it's an enjoyable but slight film.

In a nutshell: An entertaining but forgettable film, where a documentary would have been just fine.

Award potential: The mother-daughter performances will bot be rewarded with nominations, but I don't predict much else for Oscars. Allison Janney, as Tonya's mom LaVona steals every scene she's in. Her over-the-top performance will be in a tight race with a quieter (and more touching) mother-daughter performance, Laurie Metcalf's performance in Lady Bird.

The Ten Buck Review: It's a wild story. Worth ten bucks.

Golden Globe Predictions - Who will win on Sunday night?

A creature feature and a horror movie could win Best Picture? And James Franco wins too? Get out!

Predicted wins
The Shape of Water: 3
Get Out: 1
James Franco: 1
Dunkirk: 0

Those are some weirdo stats above, but historically, the Hollywood Foreign Press is kinda weird and all-over-the-place; Working Girl, Mrs. Doubtfire and The Hangover have actually won Best Motion Picture Comedy, and The Martian won it just two years ago, despite not being a comedy. But rest easy, The Ten Buck Review has an 82% correct prediction rate that could help you win your awards pool (or at least look really darn smart during the telecast). Here's what's gonna happen:




Best Picture – Drama:
Winner: The Shape Of Water
Spoiler: The Post
The well-crafted Shape was splashy enough with voters to edge out The Post. Plus, newspaper films don't make headlines with this group; Spotlight, which took the Oscar for Best Picture, lost to The Revenant at the Globes that same year (2015).

And a war film (Dunkirk) winning in this environment? Not only does love trump war this year, but there are 56 years of history saying it won't get the prize many think it will. No film with only three nominations has won Best Picture since The Guns of Navarone (1961).





Best Picture – Comedy or Musical:
Winner: Get Out
Spoiler: Lady Bird 

Although it's the safer bet, I think the critically-praised Lady Bird excels at too familiar territory to go the distance with a group that likes to surprise. The Hollywood Foreign Press might go all get out and choose to reward the most original story.
If the comedy decisions are too tough and split votes, those wacky voters might choose the only musical nominated, which would make a nice bookshelf story. The Greatest Showman won Best Picture Drama in 1952, Golden Globes second year.





Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama:
Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Spoiler: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

It’s seems like a good year for anyone who plays Churchill. Oldman appears to be a perceived lock, which sets up a potential surprise star-making moment: Chalamet’s breakthrough, tearful performances in Call Me By Your Name and Lady Bird would deliver a great TV moment. Picture the peachy newcomer besting the heavily-decorated Oldman, Denzel, Hanks and Day-Lewis. It doesn't help that Globes love newcomers and old Oldman claimed the second-rate Golden Globes are "bent" (2012).




Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama:
Winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Spoiler: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

The only person who could beat the loud artistry of McDormand is the quiet artistry of Sally Hawkins. "Loud" wins at the Globes, unless they vote Streep just to see what she'd have to say at the podium.




Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:
Winner: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Spoiler: Daniel Kaluuva, Get Out

Franco is seriously the ranking lead in the Comedy category, but I think he had too much fun on this film, setting up a tighter race than most predict. Daniel Kalluva is the other standout, and that vote is the HFP’s best bet for a diversity of winners.




Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:
Winner: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Spoiler: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

It's a close one. Both are the Golden Globe ideal and voters would love to party with either afterwards. In a close race, I'd look at the overall nominations. It seems they have awarded Lady Bird a little more than I, Tonya, which gets the silver.





Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
Winner: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Upset: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
The toughest category of the bunch should come down to Dafoe versus Rockwell in two of the best performances of the year. Unfortunately for Rockwell, Dafoe's character is the nicest of the two.

Christopher Plummer could upset as a statement vote against the Weinstein-Spacey era. It's the type of Hollywood lore that voters want to take note of. 

This is the race to watch.




Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
Winner: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Spoiler: Larie Metcalf, Lady Bird

The Best Actress (Comedy or Musical) and Best Supporting Actress races are both a close race with the mother/daughter teams in these two films. It's too close to call with TV and movie vets Janney and Metcalf. I think the more showy performance takes it.



Best Director – Motion Picture:
Winner: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape Of Water
Spoiler: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Despite all the Christopher Nolan talk this past summer, Del Toro has this one locked.




Best Screenplay – Motion Picture:
Winner: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Upset: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

McDonagh is the front runner but I think reverse discrimination could come into play in a #metoo year and voters who expected Gerwig to be in the top 5 directors should give her the ege. Plus, who doesn’t want to see Greta’s acceptance speech? It should be the best of the night. (Franco should easilily take "weirdest speech.")

Best Original Score – Motion Picture: 
Winner: The Shape Of Water
Upset: Dunkirk

In a shocker to many, I predict WWII awards-bait Dunkirk will go home without any wins.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture 
Winner: "Remember Me," Coco 
Upset: "This is Me," The Greatest Showman

The winning team behind La La Land and this years Showman could repeat, but their star faded during the TV musical production of A Christmas Story in December. I bet the Hollywood Foreign Press will be loco for internationally-themed songs of Coco.



Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Winner: The Square
Spoiler: First They Killed My Father

Two favorites, but The Square is the talk in all circles this year, and should win.




Best Animated Film:
Winner: Coco
Spoiler: The Breadwinner

The team behind Coco should prepare their speech early.

4 films to see before the Golden Globes

If you want to spruce up your movie conversation before the Globes, but you don’t have time to see twenty movies by Sunday, try these fab four films that should rule the conversation all night.

1. The Shape Of Water
I predict the most wins of the night (3) for this quirky film: Best Picture (Drama), Best Director, Best Score and a possible fourth for Best Actress (Drama) Sally Hawkins.

You’ll have to see this love it/hate it film to understand how a creature feature could beat out a timely Streep/Hanks drama or World War II epic. (In theaters.)

2. Lady Bird
Although it has a potential to win Best Picture (Comedy or Musical), the strongest bets go to Saoirse Ronan for Best Actress (Comedy or Musical) and writer- director Great Gerwig for Best Screenplay. Gerwig will likely serve up the best acceptance speech of the night.

Lady Bird, a comedy about adolescence, is the word, and the acceptance speeches could stack up. Laurie Metcalf is in a tight race with Allison Janey (I , Tonya) for Best Supporting Actress, and look for Timothée Chalamet's debut in this film. He's a Best Supporting Actor nominee for Call Me By Your Name and will be the "it" actor of the night. 

Whether Lady Bird wins two, three or four awards, you’ll hear it singing all night. (In theaters.)

3. Get Out!

If Lady Bird doesn’t take Best Picture (Comedy or Musical), this one will, and Daniel Kaluuva should win Best Actor (Comedy or Musical). If a horror movie takes Best Picture, you’ll want to have an opinion ready. Bonus: you can watch this one at home (Streaming.)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My favorite film, of these four, features Frances McDormand, who should win Best Actress (Drama), and Best Supporting Actor (Drama) nominee Sam Rockwell, who will probably lose by just a few votes to Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project. 

It’s a lot funnier than you’d expect plus writer-director Martin McDonagh should win Best Screenplay (Drama). It’s so good I should buy three billboards to make sure you don’t miss it.

The Ten Buck Review: All four are ten buck worthy.

Molly's Game

All in. 

Prior to seeing Molly’s Game, I wasn’t very excited about this film that landed during the most competitive movie month of the year. The trailer edits seemed to emphasize a soulless Jessica Chastain proving she could “be tough.” I know this already ; she was credible and awesome in Zero Dark Thirty.

I got the cards wrong. 

Aaron Sorkin’s directorial debut features Chastain effortlessly playing a complicated character who occasionally has some Sorkin-quality speeches to share. She plays real-life poker princess Molly Bloom, an Olympic-class skier who later ran the exclusive high-stakes poker games for the rich and famous — and caught the eye of the FBI. 

Sorkin directs the film in the same energetic pace of his own dialogue. Although he won’t be credited with inventing anything new as director, his tricks and cheats work. His storytelling devices borrow heavily from films such as The Big Short (2015) and The Wolf of Wall Street (2013), keeping this story fast-paced — despite the reliance on flashbacks, trade explanations and voiceovers. 

It’s an energetic, captivating, true story that won’t change your life, but it will have you Googling stuff for two hours after. (Tobey Maquire, Leonardo DiCaprio and Ben Affleck is the answer to your first google.) I’d call that ten buck worthy. 

In a nutshell: With a witty script and rat-a-tat-tat editing, it delivers a good hand for a lively night at the movies. It's a nice break in a sea of serious films.
 
Award potential: It’s a good film, but not one of the year’s 10 best so don’t expect a nomination for Best Picture or first-time director Sorkin. Sorkin will likely receive a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay.

In past years, Chastain’s portrayal of Bloom and her Cinemax-style fashion would be as Oscar-bound as Julia Roberts turn in Erin Brockovich (2000), but it is the sixth best performance this year in a category that is locked. 

Her inclusion would mean a shutout for Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan or Meryl Streep. I wouldn’t take that bet.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.