Win the Best Director category
Go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched in all but seven of a whopping 71 years. And the Oscar goes to Sam Mendes for1917.
Win the Best Cinematography category The cinematographer's award (ASC) went to Roger Deakins for 1917. The British Film Academy Film Awards (BAFTA, a broader group) also chose 1917. You should too.
Win the Best Foreign Language Film category
Five stunning films are nominated, but only one of them is also nominated for Best Picture. Like last year’s Roma, expect voters to reward a double-nominated film here. And the Oscar goes to Parasite.
Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category
WGA and BAFTA chose Jo Jo Rabbit. The USC Scripter Awards, which has accurately predicted this category for 8 of the last 10 years, awarded Greta Gerwig forLittle Women. Jo Jo is the favorite on most prediction polls but there is more going on for Oscars than other award shows. Although Little Women does not have ten plus nominations, some people still think she should have been one of the five directors. Add that to the USC Spripter math and you’ve got a front runner: Little Women.
Win the Best Original Screenplay category
Quentin Tarantino is not a member and was not eligible for the Writers Guild Award and could alter the math, but the winner in this category most closely resembles the WGA’s winner, Parasite, which also won at BAFTA. Tarantino once called this Oscars award the "Tarantino Award" after winning multiple times so it may be time for someone new with Bong Joon Ho. Go with Parasite. It’s a good bet.
Quentin Tarantino is not a member and was not eligible for the Writers Guild Award and could alter the math, but the winner in this category most closely resembles the WGA’s winner, Parasite, which also won at BAFTA. Tarantino once called this Oscars award the "Tarantino Award" after winning multiple times so it may be time for someone new with Bong Joon Ho. Go with Parasite. It’s a good bet.
Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories
The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. Their picks align with Oscar more than any other. This means: Joaquin Phoenix, Rene Zellwegger, Brad Pitt and Laura Dern should polish their speeches now.
Win the Best Animated Feature Film category
To me, this is the wild card and I'm not sure how I'm voting in any of my pools at this writing. Ten out of fourteen PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award, and it was true of last year’s winner Spiderman: Into The Spiderverse. They chose Toy Story 4, the powerhouse in this category. The Toy Story franchise is the only one to have won with a sequel (Toy Story 3). Will that help or hurt the fourth film? I’m not sure voters like to click on numerical titles, which may be why Frozen 2 didn’t even get nominated.
Well, there is one more stat. The Annie Award/BAFTA combo is huge. Since BAFTA introduced the Animated Feature award, they’ve predicted the winner in twelve of the fourteen years. Missing out were Kubo and the Two Strings (2016) and The LEGO Movie (2014). The stats point to BAFTA and Annie award winner Klaus.
Win the Best Music (Original Song) category
There’s not a lot of math other than the fact that a song from a Toy Story film has won only once out of three films. I think that will move to one out of four times. If Cynthia Erivo wins she'll instantly become the youngest person with an EGOT.
There’s not a lot of math other than the fact that a song from a Toy Story film has won only once out of three films. I think that will move to one out of four times. If Cynthia Erivo wins she'll instantly become the youngest person with an EGOT.
However, the Bitch is Back. Before their song from Rocketman, famous duo Elton John and Bernie Taupin have never won an award together. They have a Golden Globe for it and they’ll soon have an Oscar.
Win the Best Music (Original Score) category
Win the Best Music (Original Score) category
There are two that could be singing victory. Hildur Guðnadóttir, a first-time nominee for Joker, has a 2020 Golden Globe win to her name already. Thomas Newman (cousin to Randy Newman) is long overdue with 14 nominations and a masterpiece. His haunting 1917 score could win. We need math; this award most often aligns with the BAFTA Award for Best Film Music, which honored Joker.
Win the Best Sound Editing category
This category rewards “most aesthetic” sound design and the creating of sound effects.
Whatever. The loudest movie always takes Best Sound Editing, period. Speed, Pearl Harbor, Mad Max, and Zero Dark Thirty have all won Oscars in this category. My ears are still ringing from the BAFTA winner, 1917.
Win the Best Sound Mixing category
This category rewards most euphonic sound mixing, and often varies from the Best Sound Editing award. Whiplash, Les Miserables, Dreamgirls, Ray and Chicago are among past winners.
The Academy likes war films (Saving Private Ryan, Black Hawk Down, The Hurt Locker, Hacksaw Ridge, and Dunkirk have all won. But they like vehicle films too (The Bourne Ultimatum and Mad Max: Fury Road), so that narrows it to two options this year.
The CAS Award-winner often matches this award and they liked the cars squealing in Ford V Ferrari, but since CAS voted before 1917 was even screened, I’d question the math on this one. It’s a dead heat between FvF and 1917.
Win the Best Film Editing category
BAFTA chose a film not nominated here. The American Cinema Editors (ACE) award, The Eddie, has gone on to win Oscars in 13 of the last 17 years, including last year’s Bohemian Rhapsody. They chose Parasite for Drama and JoJo Rabbit for Comedy. Parasite should take this one, but without a clear math win, watch out for the heavily edited cars of Ford v Ferrari.
Win the Best Production Design category
This award, renamed from “Best Art Direction” in 2012, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (4 times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with either the Critic’s Choice award which awarded Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or the winner of Art Director's Guild award. The AGAs went to Avengers: Endgame (Fantasy), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Period) and Parasite (Contemporary). That’s two reasons for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to win here.
Win the Best Costume Design category
Decades ago, this award aligned with Art Direction, but that hasn’t been true this decade. 100+-year-old period pieces almost always (21/26) beat fantasy (Once, JoJo) ones. Plus, pretty dresses always do well. The Oscar goes to Little Women.
Decades ago, this award aligned with Art Direction, but that hasn’t been true this decade. 100+-year-old period pieces almost always (21/26) beat fantasy (Once, JoJo) ones. Plus, pretty dresses always do well. The Oscar goes to Little Women.
Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category
Sorry Joker, but the makeup and hair Oscar more often goes to realistic transformations. The Oscar goes to Bombshell.
Win the Best Visual Effects category
Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 10 of the 17 years. But, the VES and the Oscars have differed in each of the past two years with the Oscar going to the more premier film. VES chose The Lion King for its top prize and The Irishman for its secondary prize. A nominee that also has a Best Picture nomination is an offer that is harder to refuse. So, The Irishman, right? Nope. A nomination that is a front runner for Best Picture is even better. Odds go to BAFTA winner 1917.
Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)
With Apollo 11 not nominated, you would think that Honeyland, the only film in both Doc Feature and Best International Film (ever) would win. But it’s a safe bet that voters would love our current President to see Barak and Michelle Obama’s film take home an Oscar. (They didn't announce they won't be at the show until after voting ended). It also doesn’t hurt that it’s more easily seen on Netflix than Hulu. The Oscar goes to American Factory.
Win the Best Animated Short Film category
Beginning just three years ago, ALL members of the Academy (not just category peers) can pick the winners of Best Documentary Feature, Best Documentary Short, Best Animated Short Subject and Best Live Action Short Subject. That means everyone from actors to musicians will have a say, so dumb it down a bit when making your picks. A loveable, heartfelt film about hair? Done. The Oscar goes to
Hair Love.
Win the Best Documentary Short category
Whether you saw this film or didn’t see any films and are just voting on the title, most voters are going to check Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Win the Best Live Action Short Film category
Will voters gravitate to the more accessible The Neighbors Window or Syrian-serious Brotherhood? Not much match in this category. Flip a coin.
Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.
In 2002, the show ran four hours and 23 minutes. Whew! The Academy has loudly promised to come in at three hours. I’d bet on exactly three hours.
Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
Will voters gravitate to the more accessible The Neighbors Window or Syrian-serious Brotherhood? Not much match in this category. Flip a coin.
Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.
In 2002, the show ran four hours and 23 minutes. Whew! The Academy has loudly promised to come in at three hours. I’d bet on exactly three hours.
Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
Win the tiebreaker: Which film will win the most awards? And how many?
Joker has the most nominations at 11 but should be the biggest loser with 9 losses.
Win the tiebreaker: Which film will win the most awards? And how many?
Joker has the most nominations at 11 but should be the biggest loser with 9 losses.
Number of Swarovski crystals on stage?
OK, this number is official. 40,000.
Win the Best Picture category
I saved the biggest (and toughest) category for last because we're going to have to narrow down nine contenders. I hope the music doesn't cut me off before I finish.
1. We know that past films without an editing nomination don’t often win the best prize. That would narrow the field of nine to just JoJo Rabbit, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Joker, and Parasite. But I don't think you can count out Hollywood nor 1917, a film uniquely not edited at all, let’s reduce the list from nine to seven by simply eliminating Marriage Story and Little Women.
OK, this number is official. 40,000.
Win the Best Picture category
I saved the biggest (and toughest) category for last because we're going to have to narrow down nine contenders. I hope the music doesn't cut me off before I finish.
1. We know that past films without an editing nomination don’t often win the best prize. That would narrow the field of nine to just JoJo Rabbit, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Joker, and Parasite. But I don't think you can count out Hollywood nor 1917, a film uniquely not edited at all, let’s reduce the list from nine to seven by simply eliminating Marriage Story and Little Women.
2. No film in the past 11 years has won the best picture Oscar without being nominated by both the Directors Guild and BAFTA, so let’s take out Ford v. Ferrari andJoker. We are down to these five:
1917
JoJo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Irishman
3. At this point, I’d normally eliminate any without a screenplay nomination, but they all have one.
3. At this point, I’d normally eliminate any without a screenplay nomination, but they all have one.
4. In 17 of 71 years, the DGA winner’s film went on to win Best Film. But recently, the Academy has been splitting up the award 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019. So that’s not helpful.
5. The Globes and SAG don’t align consistently, but it’s rare when a film doesn’t win at least one of three options. Sorry, Jo Jo and Irishman. We’re down to three.
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
5. BAFTA has matched 4 of the last ten years, they chose 1917. 70% of the Critics Choice Awards predict Best Picture and they chose Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Let’s eliminate Parasite, which will be awarded in many other categories but may not take the top prize.
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
6. For nine of the last eleven years, the Producers Guild’s choice for Best Picture went on to claim the top prize at the Oscars. 21 of the past 30 years have done the same. 11/14 years the picture than won both PGA and Golden Globe took the Oscar too. That’s 80%. Good news for PGA winner 1917.
Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!
