Win Your Oscars® Pool - stats for every category

Although one feature creature film is nominated for 13 awards, this year's Oscars are shaping up to be one where the love is spread across a dozen films. Will themes of love (Shape of Water) trump themes of empowerment (Three Billboards, Little Bird) in 2018? It's a tough year to predict by gut. That’s why we’re here with our stat-tastic predictions. 

Win the Best Picture category
Films without an editing nomination don’t often win the best prize. That leaves Dunkirk, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. But those stats don’t reflect the #timesup #metoo year, so Gerwig’s Little Bird can’t be counted out. But let's narrow those four down further.

For eight of the last ten years, the Producers Guild’s choice for Best Picture went on to claim the top prize at the Oscars. 19 of the past 28 have done the same. Good news for PGA winner The Shape of Water.

Win the Best Director category
Even though the Academy would love to decorate a woman (Gerwig), your statistically safe bet is to go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched 63 times in the past 70 years. And the Oscar goes to: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water. 

Win the Best Animated Feature Film category
Eight out of twelve PGA-winning animated films also won the Academy Award. And the Oscar goes to: Coco. 

Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category
The WGA award went to James Ivory. Same for the USC Scripter Awards which has accurately predicted this category for the last six years (including last year’s Moonlight). It rarely goes to the same film that wins Best Picture, so we can safely give early congrats to James Ivory’s Call Me By Your Name screenplay. 

At 89, Ivory is the oldest man ever to be nominated for an Oscar and will be the oldest to win. (Agnes Varga, the director of Faces Places which is nominated this year, is eight days his senior, but less likely to win.)

Win the Best Original Screenplay category
Through the years, the winner in this category most closely resembles the winners of the Writers Guild of America. This year, that stats point to Jordan Peele’s Get Out — besting Gerwig’s Lady Bird...maybe.  

Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories
The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. Choose the SAG winners and you’re likely to win your pool. 

In the past ten years:
90% of the SAG winners also took home the Oscar for Best Actor
80% of the SAG winners also took home the Oscar for Best Actress
90% of the SAG winners also took home the Oscar for Best Suppporting Actor
80% of the SAG winners also took home the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress
 
I wouldn’t rule out Oscar voters saving a special vote for the subtle performances of William Dafoe and Laurie Metcalf. But for your safest bet, the Oscars usually go to the loudest performances and the winners at SAG, which means: Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney are your winners.

Win the Best Cinematography category
BAFTA's 2018 Cinematography winner Roger Deakins (Blade Runner) has been nominated 13 times without a win which seems to be rallying support, but its safer to look at the stats since the track record for Deakins is "losing." When you look at the last five years, where this honor has gone to the same film that won Best Director, we can say odds are in favor of Dan Lausten for The Shape of Water. 

Win the Best Foreign Language Film category
It's too wild of a category year over year to have stats and my gut was A Fantastic Woman will be most loved, but the best bet is to look at the tally of all other international awards. This one is statistically more likely to go to the film that has made the rounds all year: The Square.

Win the Best Film Editing category
Film Editing winners don’t always align with Best Picture winners. (Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max, Whiplash and Gravity are the past four winners). Dunkirk has a shot, but BAFTA editing winner Baby Driver should run away with this one.

Win the Best Sound Editing category
This category rewards “most aesthetic” sound design and the creating of sound effects. Whatever, the loudest movie always takes Best Sound Editing, period. Speed, Pearl Harbor, Mad Max, Zero Dark Thirty, The Dark Knight, King Kong, T2, Bourne Ultimatum and Arrival have all won Oscars in this category. Bet the farm on: Dunkirk.

Win the Best Sound Mixing category
This category rewards most euphonic sound mixing, and often varies from the Sound Editing award. Hacksaw Ridge, Whiplash, Les Miserables, Dreamgirls, Ray and Chicago are among the past winners. This year, it's Baby Driver vs. Dunkirk vs. Shape of Water. In six of the last eleven years, the CAS Award-winner has also won this award. Congratulations Dunkirk.

Win the Best Production Design category
This award, renamed from “Best Art Direction” in 2012, has only aligned with Best Picture three times since 2000, but that stat could change. The winner of this category often aligns with either the Critic’s Choice award which awarded the The Shape of Water, or with the BAFTA Awards which chose Shape. And the Oscar goes to: The Shape of Water

Win the Best Music (Original Score) category
While Jonny Greenwood wowed me with Phantom Thread, I can't go with my gut and all that jazz. This award most often aligns with the BAFTA Award for Best Film Music, which honored Shape on February 18. And the Oscar goes to Alexandre Desplat's splashy, beautiful, traditional score for The Shape of Water.

Win the Best Music (Original Song) category
Mary J. Blige is the first person ever to be nominated for both the acting category and song in the same year, yet there's not a lot of post-nomination love for this song. The Greatest Showman's Benj Pasek and Justin Paul memorably won just last year for La La Land —same for Stand Up for Something from Marshall, by past winners Diane Warren and Common. Oscar voters with kids will likely remember my prediction: Remember Me, from Coco.

Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category
And the Oscar goes to: Gary Oldman's transformation in Darkest Hour.

Win the Best Costume Design category
Last year this was the toughest category. This year it's one of the easiest. Period pieces almost always (20/25) beat modern and fantasy ones, but rarely is there a costume- centric movie like Phantom Thread, your easy winner.

Win the Best Visual Effects category
Historically, a nominee that also has a Best Picture nomination will always win in this category, but that’s not an option this year so we must look to the VES Awards. For eight of the past 13 years, the winner for Outstanding VFX has gone on to win the Oscar. Sorry Blade Runner. The Oscar goes to their winner: War for the Planet of the Apes.

Win the Best Animated Short Film category
Beginning just three years ago, ALL members of the Academy (not just category peers) can pick the winners of: Best Documentary Feature, Best Animated Short Subject and Best Live Action Short Subject. That means everyone from actors to musicians will have a say instead of just documentarians, so dumb it down a bit when making your pick — or just choose one with a famous person, involving sports, honoring a celebrated animator and with a score by John WIlliams: Dear Basketball's Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant.

Win the Best Documentary category (Feature)
With the Oscar luncheon team having a ball with 89-year old Agnes Varga's cutout, momentum is building for underdog Faces Places, but after Academy members have been watching the Olympics for the last two weeks, the Oscar gold goes to the film that had a huge effect on the games and how we (don't) trust Russia: Icarus

Win the Best Documentary Short category 
Cher is lobbying for the heartwarming Edith and Eddie, but I'd give the edge to a film that not only explores the opiate addiction crisis, but is also a story of female empowerment, Heroin(e).

Win the Best Live Action Short Film category
There aren't any YOY stats in this category of newcomers, but the early guess is the timely DeKalb Elementary, which tackles a school shooting incident.

Win the show’s-running-time tiebreaker.
In 2002, the show ran four hours and 23 minutes. Whew! But more recently, the show has trended consistently shorter. 

Here are the timings for the past nine years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes 
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes 

Win the tiebreaker: Which film will win the most awards? And how many?
Although I expect the love for Lady Bird will throw off at least one of the stats above, The Shape of Water will likely win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design and Best Original Score. A total of five for a creature feature.

High five to you and good luck with your Oscars pool, everyone!

12 Oscar nominated movies you can watch on your couch tonight with Netflix, Amazon and HBO

ON HBO
Get Out
The all out most discussed picture of last year is nominated for 4 Oscars: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay (which it will likely win.)

Logan
James Mangold's modern Western that elevated the superhero genre to new heights and made audiences forget it was a comic-book movie. Hugh Jackman's Wolverine character finally got the movie it deserved and it's bloody good. Nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Kong: Skull Island
Pick a side. It's Kong vs. Planet of the Apes vs. Blade Runner for this year's Best Visual Effects Oscar.



ON AMAZON PRIME

The Big Sick

Kumail Nanjiani and Emily Gordon wrote the script about their relationship and Nanjiani stars as himself in one of last year's funniest and most touching films. It is nominated for Best Original Screenplay.

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail 

Director Steve James (Hoop Dreams) showcases a family-owned bank in New York’s Chinatown that became the one and only bank in the U.S. to be prosecuted for mortgage fraud after the 2008 financial meltdown. Its story is the opposite of "too big to fail." Abacus is nominated for Best Documentary Feature. It's more captivating than this week's Shark Tank episodes for sure.

ON NETFLIX

Mudbound
This American tale, set in Mississippi in the 1940s, is nominated for four Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Song and Best Cinematography. Mary J. Blige just made Oscar history as the first person ever to be nominated for an acting performance and an original song in a single year.

Icarus
If you've been watching the Winter Olympics, see the game-changing film that altered this year's events. This documentary began as an investigation into doping cyclists, but jumps off course once it stumbles into international conspiracy. It's dope; Icarus is nominated for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar.

Beauty and the Beast
It's a tale as old as time. At the very least it's as old as the live-action adaption of the 1991 musical, the first animated film to be nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. This Beauty is nominated for Best Production Design and Best Costume Design. Its song, "Everymore," was snubbed for Best Original Song.

On Body and Soul
Two co-workers meet, fall in love and realize they've been sharing the same dreams at night. It sure sounds dreamy, right? But it's not. Endre and Maria work at a slaughterhouse and the film is more eerie than romantic. This Hungarian film was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film.

Boss Baby
People were bawling over this nomination for Best Animated Feature, but don't expect Oscar host Jimmy Kimmel to make it a running joke during the telecast. He did the voicework for the father role.

Last Men in Aleppo
Similarly themed to last year's winning White Helmets, this film follows members of the volunteer group White Helmets offer aid to the wounded during the Syrian civil war. It is nominated for Best Documentary Feature.

Strong Island
This documentary investigates a 1992 murder in New York seeks answers and justice. It was nominated for Best Documentary Feature this year.

TO RENT OR BUY
Didn't see a film that captured your interest and have a few bucks to spend? You can rent or buy these films tonight as well.

Lady Bird
A likely spoiler in most every major category. (YouTube, Vudu, Amazon Video, iTunes, Google Play). Buy now or rent Feb 27.

Three Billboards Out of Ebbing, Missouri
My favorite from the year. (YouTube, Vudu,Amazon Video, iTunes, Google Play)
Buy now or rent Feb 27.

Darkest Hour
Nominated for many awards including Best Picture and Best Actor. Expect Gary Oldman to win. (YouTube, iTunes, Vudu, Google Play, Amazon Video). Currently available for purchase only.

Dunkirk

Nominated for eight Oscars and will likely win two in the sound category. (YouTube, iTunes, Vudu, Google Play, Amazon Video)

The Florida Project

One of the most moving films of last year. William Dafoe could upset and win Best Supporting Actor for his fine work in this unforgettable film. (YouTube, iTunes, Vudu, Google Play, Amazon Video)

Baby Driver

Nominated for for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Film Editing and will likely steal one of those.(YouTube, Vudu, Google Play, iTunes, Amazon Video).

Loving Vincent
125 artists cranked out 65,000 frames’ worth of oil paintings for this feature on Vincent van Gogh that was nominated for Best Animated Feature. (Google Play, YouTube, iTunes, Vudu, Amazon Video)

War For The Planet of the Apes

See the film that will beat Blade Runner 2024 for Best Visual Effects. (YouTube, iTunes, Vudu, Google Play, Amazon Video)

The Square

Nominated for Best Foreign Film, this frontrunner made all the rounds last year. (Google Play, YouTube, iTunes, Vudu, Amazon Video)

2018 Oscar themed dishes for your watching party

The 90th annual Academy Awards offer an excuse to showcase your creativity and delight your party guests. Here are some winning ideas to get you started.

The Shape of Sushi
Unless you’ve seen Best Picture nominee The Shape of Water, you may not be convinced that a human can fall in love with a sea creature. However, it’s easy to heart a nori-seaweed-filled sushi roll surprise when it's shaped like this. Recipe suggestion below.

The Post-cereal Parfait
Extra! Extra! You don’t have to be Steven Spielberg to have a vision of how delicious and easy this salty/sweet mix (popcorn, strawberry gelatin, peanuts and Post® Waffle Crisp cereal) can be. Link to the Post® brand recipe below.

Call Me By Your Name Peaches 'n Cream Pops
These peach pops, with a creamy surprise inside, will soon be calling your name. Pack ice cream and a popsicle stick into 3-ounce disposable cups and freeze. Unwrap and place into 6-ounce cups filled with peach puree. Freeze. Unwrap and enjoy during an Italian summer or Oscar-watching party. Recipe link below. Later!

Mexican Hot Coco Cupcakes
Chili powder provides the heat in treats that will animate your guests enough to sing Remember Me,the Oscar-nominated song from Coco. Recipe suggestion below.

Lady Bird party wafers
Don't worry, they're unconsecrated. Layer Cavanagh® brand crackers cream cheese, cucumber and salmon for a grown-up taste. Serve with your favorite unconsecrated wine.

Killer Mushroom Omelette
No need to start the day with a sour breakfast. Celebrate Best Picture nominee Phantom Thread with this sick omelette, tailor made for Oscar night fun.

Sunken Place Tea
Get out your fine China and serve your guests a hot tea surprise. Don't forget the silver spoon to stir things up.

A Fantastic Chili
Celebrate Chile's A Fantastic Woman, nominated for Best Foreign Picture, with vegie black bean chili - a hearty contribution to any party. Men and women will both love it.

Three Pizzas from St. Louis, Missouri

Deliver the goods with three St. Louis style pizzas that are so tasty, your guests will want to buy billboards just to thank you. I'm ordering mine from IMO'S. Its paper thin crust and uniquely creamy Provel cheese (a combo of swiss, provolone, and cheddar) is unforgettable. Just don't forget to cut pieces into squares, as they do in Missouri.

Good luck with your Oscar-watching party everyone! Try these recipe links:

The Shape of Sushi
Here's one helpful recipe: Japan Centre https://www.japancentre.com/en/recipes/293-heart-shaped-sushi-for-valentine-s-day

The Post-cereal Parfait
Credit: Recipe by: Post®
https://www.postconsumerbrands.com/recipes/ez-fruity-popcorn-snack/

Call Me By Your Name Peaches 'n Cream Pops
Try these: https://www.marthastewart.com/1122802/peaches-n-cream-ice-pops

Mexican Hot Coco Cupcakes
Try this one: https://www.foodnetwork.com/recipes/ingrid-hoffmann/double-feature-cupcakes-with-mexican-hot-chocolate-frosting-recipe0-1937967

Lady Bird wafer cracker and spread
You'll need these:https://www.cavanaghco.com/

Get Out tea may not impress as much as this: http://www.republicoftea.com/get-happy-herb-tea-for-lifting-your-spirits/p/v00720/

Fantastic chili recipes

One for the vegetarians: http://www.foodandwine.com/slideshows/chili-recipes#march-27-vegetarian-black-bean-chili-ancho-and-orange

Three Pizzas from St. Louis, Missouri (IMO's)

Make your own: http://www.geniuskitchen.com/recipe/imos-pizza-recipe-st-louis-style-pizza-380004

Or have it delivered from Missouri to you:

https://www.goldbely.com/imos-pizza?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIiu6ApKCV2QIVBq1pCh23Uwx5EAAYASAAEgKYuvD_BwE

Knife Skills

"I had the chance to help somebody else for once, instead of hurting someone."

With one too many serious things in my news feed this week, I had very little palate for an Oscar nominated documentary about violence, race relations or mortgage fraud. That path of elimination led me to stream Knife Skills, a delicious little doc that follows the hectic launch of a sophisticated French restaurant in Cleveland—one that will be staffed entirely by ex-convicts with little to no formal culinary training.

Dozens of unseasoned cooks. 25 dishes. 6 weeks. If that sounds like a Food Network reality show, it's not. If it sounds like an inspirational story, it is. Knife Skills received an Oscar nomination for 2018 Best Documentary Short.

Viewers will come to know three inmates intimately, as well as the restaurant's founder, Brandon Chrostowski, an ex-con himself. Chrostowski was facing five to ten years when a judge granted him leniency and a one-year sentence of probation instead. He chose to educate himself in the culinary arts and reach a place in his life where he could pay it forward with a restaurant that would give others a second chance.

Skills is a compelling, inspirational and human story about how people who don't fit in can make the best of a second chance. It's a treat to know about the genesis of this special place.

The story reminded and encouraged me to support a somewhat similar concept — downtown Dallas' Cafe Momentum. — Chad Houser's New American restaurant that doubles as a nonprofit helping at-risk youths learn culinary skills. Check that out too.

Grab something delicious to eat and stream this 40-minute course on humanity. You can find it on iTunes for $2.99, or watch it for free here: https://thescene.com/watch/thenewyorker/academy-award-nominee-knife-skills

In a nutshell: Inspiring and forkin' refreshing.

Award potential: Filmmaker Thomas Lennon earned his fourth nomination for Knife Skills, which also won the audience award at the Traverse City Film Festival. His other Oscar nominated films include The Warriors of Qiugang, The Battle Over Citizen Kane and winner The Blood of Yingzhou District. Serving up the lightest subject matter of the bunch, Knife Skills won't win him another Oscar this year, but there's always another chance.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.

Phantom Thread

From The Master to a masterpiece. 

I delayed watching director Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread as if it were a chore. Although Boogie Nights and There Will Be Blood are each one of the greatest films of their decades, the last films I've seen from him have been some of the worst of this decade. 

I walked out of Inherent Vice, and The Master was one of the most unfulfilling two hours I've had in a cineplex, despite starring Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams.

That was a mistake on my part. Phantom Thread is the most ravishing film of this past year.

Daniel Day-Lewis plays eccentric dressmaker Reynolds Woodcock, whose clientele inhabit London's fashion scene in the 1950's. The film invites viewers into the lavish world of not only Woodcock and his meticulously prepared meals, but into the lives of everyone around him including his socialite clients, his sister Cyril (Lesley Manville) and Alma (Vicky Krieps), a woman who might change everything. It's a romance that explores the exchange of power in relationships and how people tailor themselves to those they love. It never falls to predictability, nor is it ambiguous. And yes, you'll squirm.

Mark Bridges’ costume designs are a stunning sideshow, showcasing the silky elegant dresses that his women clientele describe as items that "will give me courage,” and the lavish interiors of Woodcock’s townhouse play a strong supporting role to those pieces. Plus, Jonny Greenwood's jazz-inflected score perfectly compliments the era. That's right, Paul Thomas Anderson has gone full Merchant Ivory and it's phenomenal.

In a nutshell: Phantom Thread will demand your hushed concentration, but it's not a date movie.

Award potential: Phantom Thread was nominated for a total of six Oscars recently. I expect it will win one. 

Daniel Day-Lewis wears the role as if it's a custom suit, but this is Gary Oldman's (Darkest Hour) year, and Greenwoods' sensible jazz score will fall victim to Alexander Desplat's splashy one for The Shape of Water. However, rarely has a costume designer's work been as center-stage as Mark Bridges'. I can't imagine a loss for Best Costume.

The ten buck review: Worth ten bucks.