Win the Best Picture category
Films without an editing nomination don’t often win the best prize. That leaves Dunkirk, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. But those stats don’t reflect the #timesup #metoo year, so Gerwig’s Little Bird can’t be counted out. But let's narrow those four down further.
For eight of the last ten years, the Producers Guild’s choice for Best Picture went on to claim the top prize at the Oscars. 19 of the past 28 have done the same. Good news for PGA winner The Shape of Water.
Win the Best Director category
Even though the Academy would love to decorate a woman (Gerwig), your statistically safe bet is to go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched 63 times in the past 70 years. And the Oscar goes to: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water.
Win the Best Animated Feature Film category
Eight out of twelve PGA-winning animated films also won the Academy Award. And the Oscar goes to: Coco.
Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category
The WGA award went to James Ivory. Same for the USC Scripter Awards which has accurately predicted this category for the last six years (including last year’s Moonlight). It rarely goes to the same film that wins Best Picture, so we can safely give early congrats to James Ivory’s Call Me By Your Name screenplay.
At 89, Ivory is the oldest man ever to be nominated for an Oscar and will be the oldest to win. (Agnes Varga, the director of Faces Places which is nominated this year, is eight days his senior, but less likely to win.)
Win the Best Original Screenplay category
Through the years, the winner in this category most closely resembles the winners of the Writers Guild of America. This year, that stats point to Jordan Peele’s Get Out — besting Gerwig’s Lady Bird...maybe.
Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories
The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. Choose the SAG winners and you’re likely to win your pool.
In the past ten years:
90% of the SAG winners also took home the Oscar for Best Actor
80% of the SAG winners also took home the Oscar for Best Actress
90% of the SAG winners also took home the Oscar for Best Suppporting Actor
80% of the SAG winners also took home the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress
I wouldn’t rule out Oscar voters saving a special vote for the subtle performances of William Dafoe and Laurie Metcalf. But for your safest bet, the Oscars usually go to the loudest performances and the winners at SAG, which means: Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney are your winners.
Win the Best Cinematography category
BAFTA's 2018 Cinematography winner Roger Deakins (Blade Runner) has been nominated 13 times without a win which seems to be rallying support, but its safer to look at the stats since the track record for Deakins is "losing." When you look at the last five years, where this honor has gone to the same film that won Best Director, we can say odds are in favor of Dan Lausten for The Shape of Water.
Win the Best Foreign Language Film category
It's too wild of a category year over year to have stats and my gut was A Fantastic Woman will be most loved, but the best bet is to look at the tally of all other international awards. This one is statistically more likely to go to the film that has made the rounds all year: The Square.
Win the Best Film Editing category
Film Editing winners don’t always align with Best Picture winners. (Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max, Whiplash and Gravity are the past four winners). Dunkirk has a shot, but BAFTA editing winner Baby Driver should run away with this one.
Win the Best Sound Editing category
This category rewards “most aesthetic” sound design and the creating of sound effects. Whatever, the loudest movie always takes Best Sound Editing, period. Speed, Pearl Harbor, Mad Max, Zero Dark Thirty, The Dark Knight, King Kong, T2, Bourne Ultimatum and Arrival have all won Oscars in this category. Bet the farm on: Dunkirk.
Win the Best Sound Mixing category
This category rewards most euphonic sound mixing, and often varies from the Sound Editing award. Hacksaw Ridge, Whiplash, Les Miserables, Dreamgirls, Ray and Chicago are among the past winners. This year, it's Baby Driver vs. Dunkirk vs. Shape of Water. In six of the last eleven years, the CAS Award-winner has also won this award. Congratulations Dunkirk.
Win the Best Production Design category
This award, renamed from “Best Art Direction” in 2012, has only aligned with Best Picture three times since 2000, but that stat could change. The winner of this category often aligns with either the Critic’s Choice award which awarded the The Shape of Water, or with the BAFTA Awards which chose Shape. And the Oscar goes to: The Shape of Water
Win the Best Music (Original Score) category
While Jonny Greenwood wowed me with Phantom Thread, I can't go with my gut and all that jazz. This award most often aligns with the BAFTA Award for Best Film Music, which honored Shape on February 18. And the Oscar goes to Alexandre Desplat's splashy, beautiful, traditional score for The Shape of Water.
Win the Best Music (Original Song) category
Mary J. Blige is the first person ever to be nominated for both the acting category and song in the same year, yet there's not a lot of post-nomination love for this song. The Greatest Showman's Benj Pasek and Justin Paul memorably won just last year for La La Land —same for Stand Up for Something from Marshall, by past winners Diane Warren and Common. Oscar voters with kids will likely remember my prediction: Remember Me, from Coco.
Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category
And the Oscar goes to: Gary Oldman's transformation in Darkest Hour.
Win the Best Costume Design category
Last year this was the toughest category. This year it's one of the easiest. Period pieces almost always (20/25) beat modern and fantasy ones, but rarely is there a costume- centric movie like Phantom Thread, your easy winner.
Win the Best Visual Effects category
Historically, a nominee that also has a Best Picture nomination will always win in this category, but that’s not an option this year so we must look to the VES Awards. For eight of the past 13 years, the winner for Outstanding VFX has gone on to win the Oscar. Sorry Blade Runner. The Oscar goes to their winner: War for the Planet of the Apes.
Win the Best Animated Short Film category
Beginning just three years ago, ALL members of the Academy (not just category peers) can pick the winners of: Best Documentary Feature, Best Animated Short Subject and Best Live Action Short Subject. That means everyone from actors to musicians will have a say instead of just documentarians, so dumb it down a bit when making your pick — or just choose one with a famous person, involving sports, honoring a celebrated animator and with a score by John WIlliams: Dear Basketball's Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant.
Win the Best Documentary category (Feature)
With the Oscar luncheon team having a ball with 89-year old Agnes Varga's cutout, momentum is building for underdog Faces Places, but after Academy members have been watching the Olympics for the last two weeks, the Oscar gold goes to the film that had a huge effect on the games and how we (don't) trust Russia: Icarus
Win the Best Documentary Short category
Cher is lobbying for the heartwarming Edith and Eddie, but I'd give the edge to a film that not only explores the opiate addiction crisis, but is also a story of female empowerment, Heroin(e).
Win the Best Live Action Short Film category
There aren't any YOY stats in this category of newcomers, but the early guess is the timely DeKalb Elementary, which tackles a school shooting incident.
Win the show’s-running-time tiebreaker.
In 2002, the show ran four hours and 23 minutes. Whew! But more recently, the show has trended consistently shorter.
Here are the timings for the past nine years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
Win the tiebreaker: Which film will win the most awards? And how many?
Although I expect the love for Lady Bird will throw off at least one of the stats above, The Shape of Water will likely win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design and Best Original Score. A total of five for a creature feature.
High five to you and good luck with your Oscars pool, everyone!
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