8 Best Picture frontrunners and where to watch them now

The 8 Best Picture Frontrunners (6 you can watch from your couch)

After a history of five nominees and the past decade with a flexible 5-10 nominees, the Academy returns to a set of 10 nominations for Best Picture in 2022. Based on prior festival and industry wins, 8 films have emerged as front runners. 6 are streaming for home enjoyment, and all are totally Ten Buck worthy. Enjoy!

1. Belfast

In a nutshell: From the very start, open up your heart; Belfast is a story of everlasting love. Set in 1969 during the height of the conflicts between Protestants and Catholics, Kenneth Branagh’s love letter to his youth is a family drama that you won’t soon forget.
Where to see it: VOD
Likely Oscar nominations (11): Best Picture, Director Kenneth Branagh, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Supporting Actress Balfe, Supporting Actors Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds, Editing, Production Design, Sound

2. The Power of the Dog 

In a nutshell:  “Adapted from Thomas Savage's dramatic novel of the American West” and “directed by Jane Champion” are two phrases I never expected to put together, yet The Power of the Dog is just that. Campion’s films (The Piano, Portrait of a Lady) are generally a work of castration to its characters and well, mankind. Fittingly, her first movie in a decade delivers an actual one. However, she kept me guessing at the path and the ending and I was truly surprised at the final landing place. A rare feat.

Where to see it: Netflix

Likely Oscar nominations (11): Best Picture, Director Jane Campion, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Actor Benedict Cumberbatch, Supporting Actor Kodi Smit-McPhee, Supporting Actor Jesse Plemons, Supporting Actress Kirsten Dunst,  Editing, Original Score

3. West Side Story

In a nutshell: It should have been a lose-lose idea. Staying close to the 10-Oscar winning classic could be too corny. Redoing it; blasphemy. But Spielberg’s vision worked in all the right places while keeping the perfect tone. Turns out, we need both the perfect 1961 film and a new one.
Where to see it: Theaters
Likely Oscar nominations (11): Best Picture, Director Steven Spielberg, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Supporting Actress Ariana DeBose, Supporting Actress Rita Moreno, Costume Design, Editing, Makeup & Hair, Production Design, Sound

4. Dune

In a nutshell: Long ago in a film world far away, Dune was never given the sci-fi film treatment the well-loved book deserved. The sands have shifted and all has been corrected.

Where to see it: HBO Max
Likely Oscar nominations (11):Best Picture, Director Denis Villeneuve, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Makeup & Hair, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects

5. CODA

In a nutshell: CODA (Child of Deaf Adults) is a predictable, feel-good family film that feels more like a TV hit than cinema perfection. However, it hits all the right notes and has kept in Oscar conversation far longer than one would have expected.

Where to see it: Apple +
Likely Oscar nominations (4): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor Troy Kotsur, Supporting Actress Marlee Matlin

6. King Richard

In a nutshell: No surprise, Will Smith keeps the story of the Williams family serious but never heavy. Along with West Side Story, this is one of the films offering a fully diverse cast. There's some sloppy dialogue and some corny stuff at play here, but the film has its fans and it should make the list.

Where to see it: VOD
Likely Oscar nominations (6): Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Actor Will Smith, Supporting Actress Aunjanue Ellis, Original Score, Best Original Song,

7. Tick, Tick...Boom!

In a nutshell: In a nutshell: Lin-Manuel -Miranda’s (Hamilton) musical could have gone wrong in so many ways. It could have been too-Broadway, too-melancholy or too-light or too-silly, but it turned out just too amazing. 

Where to see it: Neflix

Likely Oscar nominations (5): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Actor Andrew Garfield, Editing, Sound

8. Licorice Pizza

In a nutshell:  A breezy surprise from master Paul Thomas Anderson and the most breezy, enjoyable movie of the year. For drama+comedy, I prefer it to CODA.
Where to see it: Theaters
Likely Oscar nominations (5): Best Picture, Director Paul Thomas Anderson, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor Bradley Cooper, Costume Design

The Last Two Slots

Here's the tea. House of Gucci (Theaters) will get 5-7 nominations, but will it make Best Picture? I think it has a chance because I believe Don't Look Up is a slight film that may have peaked too soon — and comedies don't usually make the list. 

9. House of Gucci

Being the Ricardos (Amazon) is a mess of a picture although Kidman, Bardem and Sorkin are front runners in the category, so one might look to the excellent The Lost Daughter (Netflix). Olivia Colman may get nominated for it, and female Maggie Gyllenhaal may likely win for her adapted screenplay... 

10. Drive My Car

...but I think the best money is on Director Ryûsuke Hamaguchi's Drive My Car, a Japanese road drama film in theaters. 

Licorice Pizza

From Boogie Nights and Magnolia to There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread, writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson has created some of the most distinctive films of the last quarter-century. 

He’s also the force behind a film I walked out on, Inherent Vice, and one I wish I did, The Master with Philip Seymour Hoffman.

Luckily for everyone, this is one of his best, showing a new level of maturity as an auteur. 

Set in Boogie Night’s 1970’s sun-drenched San Fernando Valley, Licorice Pizza is a coming-of-age story unique to everything else that has been described as such. The film balances Anderson’s usual sharp dialogue, disruptive sidetrack stories and dark comedy with something new from him —sentiment. Yes, it’s his usual edge, but side-by-side with a hint of innocence and a whole lotta warmth.

A love letter to a distinct time in America, Licorice Pizza never explains its title which was simply the name of a local record store of the time. It’s also safe to say that it’s appropriately "two words that don’t go together." Like Anderson and heartfelt. Or like a 15-year old Gary Valentine (Cooper Hoffman) and 25-year old Alana (Alana Haim). Or like the story of an aged-out child actor with a sunny outlook. Or like a chill film paired with the most nail-biting sequence of the year.

Anderson is more of a master than ever.

In a nutshell: A breezy surprise from Paul Thomas Anderson and one of the best films of 2021.

Award potential: With 10 spaces this year for Best Picture, this small film has a solid chance. Less likely for its deserving director and breakout first-timers Cooper Hoffman (son of Philip Seymour Hoffman) and Alana Haim (of the rock group Haim). We may see a nod to Anderson in Best Original Screenplay, however, and Bradley Cooper has momentum in the Supporting Actor category for a very small (but standout) part. 

If there was an award for “most running,” it would definitely win.

Where to see it: In theaters.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Why the Oscar should go to Andrew Garfield

The collection of actors lining up for this year’s Best Actor is a stellar list of famous favorites who each gave us their finest performances to date.

Will Smith, excellent in Ali, is finally good in a good movie (King Richard). Benedict Cumberbatch (Power of the Dog) elevates his status with the lead role in the most rewarded film of the year — the Netflix-backed flick most likely to sweep Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography and more.

11-year old Jude Hill, who starred in my favorite film of the year (Belfast), is on track to becoming the youngest male Oscar nominee. And Oscar-winner and 4-time nominee Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) and 8-time nominee and 2-time winner Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) are back in play too.

Will Smith, past-nominated for underwhelming films Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness, may finally have his day. He’s the frontrunner and we all would love his acceptance speech of course. 

He is followed closely by Cumberbatch, who could ride a Power of the Dog sweep. His excellent, dark turn as Phil Burbank is one of the most haunting characters since Day-Lewis’s oilman in There Will Be Blood. But Phil Burbank is not as memorable as Day-Lewis' "I drink your milkshake" Dan Plainville character. You may want to add that Cumberbartch has bonus points for his Dr. Strange role in the recent Spider-Man film, but wait.

I’d argue that the biggest acting risk that paid off big was with the guy taking on the role of Jonathan Larsen  —in a singing-dancing musical about the bohemian American composer and playwright who gave us Rent. This year, that actor also played Jim Baker to Jessica Chastain’s Eyes of Tammy Faye and (Spider-Man: No Way Home spoiler) stole the show in the biggest film of the decade. 

Your Spidey-sense is correct! Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge, Social Network) should win for Tick, Tick Boom! Not saying he will, but...

Lin-Manuel -Miranda’s (Hamilton) musical could have gone wrong in so many ways. It could have been too-Broadway, too-melancholy or too-light or too-silly, but it turned out just too amazing. Credit Garfield for most of that. As Larsen, he gives the most emotional performance of the year in addition to dazzling song and dance. I honestly don’t know how it all worked.

Garfield captures the anxiety of a revolutionary artist while balancing powerhouse numbers sandwiched by drama and comedy — and makes it all seem breezy, never strained. 

Oh, and he saved MJ from that fall. I rest my case.

In a nutshell: Andrew Garfield is the best actor of 2021.

Award Potential: We'll see. Oscar nominations will be announced on February 8, 2022.

Where to find it: Tick, Tick Boom! is streaming on Netflix.

The Ten Buck Review: Worth ten bucks.

Being The Ricardos

Ever since final casting for Being The Ricardos was announced, I’ve had a hard time connecting Nicole Kidman to Lucille Ball. To be fair, I can’t see original choice Cate Blanchet (delays forced her to drop out) nor Debra Messing (who campaigned for the role) either.

The director and producers clearly worried about this as well. The film opens on just the feet of Lucille Ball (Kidman) and Desi Arnez (Javier Bardem) as they engage in a verbal fight followed by a roll in the hay. I suppose it was their way of easing into a story about one of the most famous couples of the past Century.

Hang on though. The good news is that Kidman nails both TV’s physical comedienne Lucy (in radio show and sitcom recreations) and businesswoman Lucille (the brassy businesswoman). Bardem, although Spanish, nails the essence of America’s most famous Cuban as well.

Writer/director Aaron Sorkin (Chicago Seven, Social Network, West Wing) has created a story surrounding the I Love Lucy stars during one week on set during McCarthyism 1953. A week when radio personality Walter Winchell dropped a bombshell about Ball’s membership in the Communist Party. In the film, it is also the week the Ricardos were fighting about marital infidelity and announcing their pregnancy and intent to show it on TV, which was scandalous at the time.

In reality, these items happened years apart, but the film uses the single-week framing device to build frenetic energy in line with fast pacing of Sorkinese dialogue.
A lot of this works. Especially with the actors. Including J.K. Simmons in a spot-on take of William Frawley, who played Fred in the sitcom.

But a lot of tricks don’t work. Such as a clumsy opening sequence featuring single-camera interviews of actors portraying film crew members. One is even played, jarringly, by Linda Lavin (TV sitcom’s Alice). The film also contains multiple flashbacks (ugh) and some distracting digital de-aging of the stars that come across more like deepfakes, the creepy kind. One advantage to NOT seeing this on the big screen.

All this mess was created to try to make a reimagination come together There may be a rewarding story about Lucy and Desi, but this isn’t it. And it’s not very entertaining.

In a nutshell: It's OK. Nothing to love either. A reimagining that is superior to any TV-biopic, but hardly satisfies at a cinematic level.

Award-potential: Never count Sorkin out for one of five Original Screenplay Oscar slots, or Kidman, Bardem and Simmons for acting slots, but I don’t expect the film to show up anywhere else, including Hair and Makeup.

Where to watch: In theaters and streaming on Amazon Prime.

The Ten Buck Review: Not worth ten bucks.