Golden Globe Predictions for 2017

Historically, the Hollywood Foreign Press is as all-over-the-place as Meryl Streep's high notes in Florence Foster Jenkins, but I have an 82% correct prediction rate that could help you win your awards pool (or look really darn smart during the telecast). Here's what's gonna happen:

Best Motion Picture – Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Winner: Moonlight (It will edge out the equally dynamic Manchester. Both are deserving, but Moonlight’s themes give it an edge as a message and statement the HWP will likely want to reward in these times.)

Upset: Manchester by the Sea


Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

Winner: La La Land (It’s an original, whiz-bang musical in a category that has rewarded lesser musicals.)
Upset: Deadpool (The team that stayed tight to vision for Deadpool could be rewarded for their perseverance and delivery of this well-loved, and about-to-be overhyped, film.)


Best Director – Motion Picture
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Winner: La La Land (Any four of the revolutionary new filmmakers —not Gibson—could win, but perhaps the hardest achievement was delivering a non-ironic musical.)
Upset: Moonlight


Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Winner: Casey Affleck (An amazing performance that should be rewarded Sunday.)
Upset: Denzel Washington (Consistently amazing. He’s already the recipient of seven previous nominations with two wins and the Cecil B. DeMille Award.)


Best Actress, Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Winner: Natalie Portman (This will be her third win.)
Upset:  Isabelle Huppert, Elle (Amy Adams has two awards already, but has never won in the Drama category.) 


Best Actor, Musical or Comedy
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Winner: Ryan Gosling, for a true Musical or Comedy performance. (Hear that, The Martian’s Matt Damon?)
Upset: Colin Farrell and Ryan Reynolds will probably split the alt-vote. If not for Farrell I’d expect Reynolds to be rewarded for his decade-long struggle to get Deadpool made.


Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don't Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Winner: Emma Stone, for a true Musical or Comedy performance.
Upset: Meryl Streep (She was fabulous, hilarious and it is her night. She'll receive the Cecil B. DeMille award on Sunday.)


Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Winner: Viola Davis. (Have you seen the film or event trailer for Fences? Done.)
Upset: Naomie Harris (She has standout moments too, but The Hollywood Foreign Press likely wants to hear Viola’s acceptance speech more.)


Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Winner: Mahershala Ali (There will be extra-loud cheers when his name is announced. He’s this year’s J.K. Simmons.)
Upset: Jeff Bridges (He had the best lines of the year.)


Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Winner: Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea (They’ll spread the love here.)
Upset: Chazelle for La La Land

Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls 
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Faith,” Sing
“Gold,” Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

Winner: “How Far I’ll Go,” (Who doesn’t want to see Lin-Manuel on stage?)
Upset: “City of Stars” (A la-la-landslide could happen.)


Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Moonlight
La La Land
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures

Winner: La La Land (Bet money.)
Upset: Moonlight (There’s always an upset.)


Best Motion Picture – Animated
Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Trolls
Zootopia

Winner: Moana (Highly praised, and worldly.)
Upset: Zootopia (Highly praised, last summer.)

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

Winner: Toni Erdmann (This German-Austrian comedy and family-drama has won almost everything so far.)
Upset: The Salesman (Iran’s submission, a taut moral drama about a married couple who are acting in Death of a Salesman, may do better with Oscar voters who are actors and artists.)


Best Show Moments
Winners: Jimmy Fallon will delight audiences with a party atmosphere, a likely duet with Troll's nominee Justin Timberlake (ugh), and at least one of his tricks will take off. 

He’ll also use the opportunity to toss some tough edgy Trump jokes to distance himself from famously tousling Trump’s hair a bit too friendly for some folks. 

The Meryl Streep tribute seems way overdue and should be a showstopper.

Casey Afflek’s speech is the one to watch.

Upset: A real shocker will be if those on stage stay away from political commentary throughout the long night. Let’s hope they stick to the movies and all things la-la-land.