Win your Oscars pool with this stat-tastic help
It's another unique year for Oscars so we’re gonna need some math to help your Oscar office pool. Here's how to win:
Win the Best Director category
Go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched in 62 of 73 years. It can't hurt that the DGA chose a female director of a Best Picture nominee this year. And it's her finest, most evolved work. And the Oscar goes to... Jane Campion, Power of the Dog.
Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category
Flee is also nominated in Documentary and Animated Feature, And Worst Person in the World is extremely liable, but only one of them is also nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. And the Oscar goes to... Drive My Car.
Win the Best Animated Feature Film category
11 out of 15 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award. it can't hurt that you've heard one of its songs every day of 2022. And the Oscar goes to... Encanto.
Win the Best Director category
Go with whoever won the Director’s Guild of America award. Those winners have matched in 62 of 73 years. It can't hurt that the DGA chose a female director of a Best Picture nominee this year. And it's her finest, most evolved work. And the Oscar goes to... Jane Campion, Power of the Dog.
Win the Best Foreign Feature Film category
Flee is also nominated in Documentary and Animated Feature, And Worst Person in the World is extremely liable, but only one of them is also nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. And the Oscar goes to... Drive My Car.
Win the Best Animated Feature Film category
11 out of 15 PGA-winning animated films also won the Animated Feature Academy Award. it can't hurt that you've heard one of its songs every day of 2022. And the Oscar goes to... Encanto.
Win the Best Actor/Actress/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress categories
Supporting is a lock. Will late surges for Andrew Garfield and Penelope Cruz cause an upset for actor and actress? It may happen, but your best bet for your money, however, is SAG. The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. Their picks align with Oscar more than any other. This means Will Smith, Jessica Chastain, Troy Kotsure and Ariana DeBose should polish their speeches now.
Supporting is a lock. Will late surges for Andrew Garfield and Penelope Cruz cause an upset for actor and actress? It may happen, but your best bet for your money, however, is SAG. The SAG voters are all actors and are the largest block of voters for the Academy Awards. Their picks align with Oscar more than any other. This means Will Smith, Jessica Chastain, Troy Kotsure and Ariana DeBose should polish their speeches now.
Win the Best Adapted Screenplay category
The respected Writers Guild (WGA) chose CODA as did Britain's BAFTA. The USC Scripter Awards, which has accurately predicted this category for 9 of the last 12 years, chose The Lost Daughter, written by Hollywood's well-loved Maggie Gyllenhaal. In a tight three-way race, with Power of the Dog included too, the Oscar is most likely to go to... CODA.
The respected Writers Guild (WGA) chose CODA as did Britain's BAFTA. The USC Scripter Awards, which has accurately predicted this category for 9 of the last 12 years, chose The Lost Daughter, written by Hollywood's well-loved Maggie Gyllenhaal. In a tight three-way race, with Power of the Dog included too, the Oscar is most likely to go to... CODA.
Win the Best Original Screenplay category
The winner category most often parallels the WGA’s winner, which was Don't Look Up, a famously improved film headscratcher. BAFTA chose the brilliant Licorice Pizza, surprisingly over home-court advantage Branagh's Belfast. Does this show a lack of support for Belfast which peaked in December? Or is everyone waiting to award Branagh at the big show? I hope but the math says it's either Don't Look Up (not Adam McCay's best) or Licorice Pizza. The Oscar goes to... Licorice Pizza.
Win the Best Music (Original Song) category
There’s not a lot of math for this category, just remember that all members (not just musicians) vote in this category. Do they want to see Lin Manuel-Miranda get his EGOT or see youthful Billie Eilish and Finneas on stage the same night as the 007 tribute? Either way, a win for audiences. And the Oscar goes to No Time To Die.
Win the Best Music (Original Score) category
This race is most likely between Hans Zimmer's inventive masterpiece for Dune and Johhny Greenwood's (Radiohead) nightmarish compositions for the psychological western, The Power of the Dog. This award most often aligns with the BAFTA Award for Best Film Music, which honored the ambitious Dune score. Zimmer has been nominated 12 times with one win for The Lion King and during voting week, his work was played memorably by a Ukrainian on a piano in the midst of chaos ... and the Oscar goes to Hans.
Win the Best Sound category
Sound Editing has always gone to the loudest, ear-ringing war film or action film and Sound Mixing rewarded the most euphonic sound mixing and would often award craft details in movies such as Whiplash. Last year, for the first time ever, the two awards were combined and rewarded Sound of Metal. The math is fresh. Let's go with CAS Sound Mixing Award-winner, and loud ear-ringing action war film, Dune.
Win the Best Editing category
This is the most unpredictable award of the night. The EDDIE Awards rewarded King Richard. West Side Story took Critics Choice Award. Tick Tick Boom, Power of Dog and Dune all got an ACE. Plus, No Time To Die won BAFTA, in Britain of course. Editors seem to love Tick Tick Boom for technical reasons, but post-nomination, editors plus everyone votes.
I'll rule out all but Power of the Dog, No Time to Die and Dune. Throughout history, this award always has a Sound nomination, as these do. Do long, sequel films have a disadvantage here? Surely voters are tired of checking Dune for everything. You'll have to pick this one on your own. I'll roll the dice for Power of the Dog.
Win the Best Cinematography category
The cinematographer's award (ASC) is a good one to watch — it chose Dune. The Academy membership is broader than ASC's cinematography crowd. It's a little more like The British Film Academy Film Awards (BAFTA). They also chose Dune. The Oscar goes to... Dune.
Win the Best Cinematography category
The cinematographer's award (ASC) is a good one to watch — it chose Dune. The Academy membership is broader than ASC's cinematography crowd. It's a little more like The British Film Academy Film Awards (BAFTA). They also chose Dune. The Oscar goes to... Dune.
Win the Best Production Design category
This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (Just 4 times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award. The AGAs went to Nightmare Alley (Period film), Dune (Fantasy film) and No Time to Die (Contemporary film). And the Oscar goes to... Dune.
This award, the 2012-renamed “Best Art Direction" award, doesn’t usually match Best Picture (Just 4 times since 2000). The winner of this category often aligns with the winner of Art Director's Guild Award. The AGAs went to Nightmare Alley (Period film), Dune (Fantasy film) and No Time to Die (Contemporary film). And the Oscar goes to... Dune.
Win the Best Visual Effects category
Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 10 of the 19 years. The Oscar goes to its winner, Dune.
Since the VES Awards launched in 2002, the winner of its top film category has gone on to score the Best Visual Effects Oscar in 10 of the 19 years. The Oscar goes to its winner, Dune.
Win the Best Costume Design category
I can narrow it to two. Fashion fantasy Cruella and Dune each won at the Costume Designer Guild Awards.
Period pieces (Emma) almost always beat fantasy (Pinocchio) ones. But is Dune, 20,000 years into our future, fantasy or period piece? The math leans to the film with a Best Picture nomination, Dune. The gut leads to the film that is all about fashion, Cruella.
Win the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category
After the MUAHS Awards, the race is wide open with Cruella and Coming To America winning over front-runners The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Dune. During nomination week, Jessica Chastain took a stand in the debate over not broadcasting this category that I believe will push that makeup-focused film to the top of the four. The Oscar goes to... The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Win the Best Documentary Feature category (Feature)
Despite the innovations of Flee, it's important to know that all Academy members vote on this award, not just the doc category. Amy, Searching for Sugar Man and 20 Feet from Stardom were all accessible, music-filled docs that recently took the top prize. Few were loved as much as Questlove-directed Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised), which has won the BAFTA, the Critics Choice Documentary Award and the Independent Spirit Award. And the Oscar goes to Summer of Soul.
Win the Best Animated Short Film category
Go with either the holiday miracle story of Robin Robin or The Windshield Wiper, where a chain smoker asks "What is love"?
Win the Best Documentary Short category
Go with heralded Queen of Basketball, showcasing Lucy Harris Steward who scored the first basket in women's Olympic history in 1976 and was the first and only woman drafted into the NBA.
Win the Best Live Action Short Film category
Go with The Long Goodbye, produced and starring past Oscar nominee Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal, Flee). The Short Film showcases a British-Pakistani family preparing its home for a wedding celebration until a right-wing march sparks chaos. Check it out; free on YouTube.
Win the show’s running-time tiebreaker.
In 2002, the show ran for four hours and 23 minutes. It's been trending down ever since.
Here are the timings for the past ten years:
2009: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2010: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2011: 3 hours, 15 minutes
2012: 3 hours, 14 minutes
2013: 3 hours, 35 minutes
2014: 3 hours, 30 minutes
2015: 3 hours, 43 minutes
2016: 3 hours, 37 minutes
2017: 3 hours, 49 minutes
2018: 3 hours, 53 minutes
2019: 3 hours, 23 minutes
2020: 3 hours, 36 minutes
2021: 3 hours, 19 minutes
Tiebreaker question: Which film will win the most awards?
Dune is on track to win 5-7 awards.
Win the Best Picture category
A new two-horse race has evolved. It's Netflix vs. Amazon. CODA has replaced Belfast in the feel-good position against the feel-no-so-good The Power of the Dog. Both have screenplay nominations.
- It won best picture at BAFTA, Golden Globes and the DGA. It also won at The Critics Choice (70% alignment with Oscars).
- The season long-favorite is the only of the two with an editing nomination, a historical must that has been challenged only in recent years.
- CODA is more glorified Hallmark movie than inventive cinema.
- The Academy is more international than ever, and this film plays much better to that crowd
- Netflix is more seasoned at promoting films than Amazon
- In the complete history of the Academy Awards, no film has won Best Picture without a nomination for either directing or editing, ever. CODA does not have these. But...
The case for CODA:
- For 10 of the last 13 years, the Producers Guild’s choice for Best Picture went on to claim the top prize at the Oscars. They chose CODA.
- CODA took the best ensemble award at SAG as well.
- The Academy finally has a popular but respected film that could shine over prestigous, crafted artful fare.
- Viewers, the Academy (and the world) would love to see that diverse cast on stage at the Oscars in a historic moment. I haven't heard any news, but sure the producers will stage a performance of Both Sides Now complete with deaf interpreters. If they don't, I should product next year.
Most importantly, math.
Since 2009, the ranked voting system has been in play for just this one category. Rather than voting for only one movie, voters choose their preferences in order, from the first choice to last. If no candidate or movie wins an outright majority, a runoff occurs. The least popular is eliminated, and any voter who chose that option for the first place is reassigned to their second choice option instead. This process repeats itself until one movie wins. With this methodology, a "perfectly fine" movie can win over a "cinephile best" narrow thematic that is heralded by many yet unliked by some. Power of the Dog may be the most respected, crafted film of the year but many didn't connect. I wouldn't bet money against CODA.
And the big finish of the night goes to... CODA.
Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!
Good luck with your Oscars pool everyone!
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